Offense, You Owe the Defense an Apology!

Defense, you can sit this rant out for the most part. I'm incredibly proud of your efforts yesterday.

To everyone else, what a pathetic effort.

• 9 penalties for 75 yards
• 6 of 16 on 3rd down
• 3.9 yards per play
• 9 (of 12) drives lasted 6 plays or less
• Those same 9 drives went for no more than 21 yards and none lasted for more than 3 minutes

I think the worst thing (and that is saying a LOT with this game) was the 12-play, 30-yard drive that started with 36 seconds left in the 3rd quarter, and went into the fourth quarter. 12 plays and 30 yards. That's 2.5 yards per play.

Shawn Bell averaged 5.33 yards per attempt, about 2 yards short of what he should be shooting for as a minimum. He also averaged about 8.25 yards per completion. Again, AT LEAST 2 yards short of what he should be shooting for.

Defenses know that they can pack the box with men and have no fear for retribution from the offense, not because Bell can't throw it 25-30 yards down the field, but because he won't. Bell doesn't have the arm for the 35-50 yard passes (that's why Parks threw that pass to Whitaker), but he can make the 25 yard passes as well as anyone else. But he won't. Why? I can't say for sure, but I'd say it's the same reason he didn't try and run over the defender at OU last year, or why he slid short of the first down marker, or why he's been labelled soft by so many people. He's scared. If he throws it down field, it might get picked off, it might fall incomplete, it might show that he doesn't have a really strong throwing arm, whatever. If he can complete the 5 yard pass, then it shows that it wasn't his fault. "Look at my 60+% completion percentage!"

I don't think that this is necessarily something he has at the front of his mind, but I think it's in there somewhere. Morriss said after the TCU game that he wanted more of a "gunslinger" mentality from Bell. Well Guy, I just don't think the boy has it. Wait 'til next year.

The problem is, we can't wait for next year. THIS is one of the best opportunities Baylor has had for a bowl game in a LONG time. There is a lot of expectation being sunk in this year. Morriss said he didn't want to back into a bowl game, that he wanted to win 7 or 8 games. And he thought we could. Well, we could have, but wins #7 and #8 turned out to losses #1 and #2.

And that's what's killing fans. We are a good enough team to win against both TCU and WSU. There is only one way we lose those games, and we did it. We screwed around and made mistakes and blew opportunities again and again and again and again and again.

The defense says it's their fault. And frankly, I think that's one of the reasons they are so much better than the offense. They take responsibility. They weren't perfect, in fact they made two huge mental errors on the day that conceivably could have changed the game, both of them personal fouls that came on WSUs two TD scoring drives. Strangely this is a problem that seems to carry over from last year, when at A&M we let a personal foul continue a TD drive that allowed A&M to stay in the game.

But in both the WSU and last years A&M game, the story of the game was offensive incompetence.


In the first half of the game, the defense allowed a touchdown off of a Baylor fumble 34 yards from the endzone. Prior to that, WSU had gained 79 yards on 30 plays (2.63 yards per play). After the TD, they allowed 17 yards on 3 plays before intercepting the ball, giving it back to the offense with 40 seconds on the clock at the WSU 49 yard line. Three plays, zero yards.

I'm trying desperately to find a silver lining on the offenses performance. Justin Fenty was a nice surprise, Trent Shelton continued his streak, Zeigler averaged 15 yards per catch, but even those things aren't enough to overcome the negatives. Fenty also dropped two passes, including a 3rd down pass that would have continued the drive after the first WSU touchdown; Shelton only gained 25 yards on the day, on 5 catches; Zeigler only caught 3 balls on the day.

WHERE ARE OUR PLAYMAKERS!!??


Right now, we are looking at a 4 win team, if that. The defense is Top 15 caliber, in my opinion. But the offense is looking like a D2 school, and I KNOW that we have more talent than that.

A few more games like this and it's time to bring in Romo, err... Szymanski.

Prediction Time

I've been dreading this all week, because I don't think I can predict a Baylor victory here.

I know a lot of reason the Bears CAN win this weekend, but I don't have those reasons why they WILL win. Washington State is the more established team, both in terms of scheme and experience.

Baylor COULD see its offense come together, and if that happened, then I think Baylor would surely win. But to predict that is going to happen on the road, after a 10 hour plane ride, in a strange field, against a team of about equal talent seems like a stretch. I think it's more likely that we see some good things from the team, and that we see a lot of struggles as well.

Washington State versus our defense is another interesting call. I love our secondary and I think we are going to be ok against the pass. I'll put CJ Wilson up against any receiver in the nation and feel ok about it. And Anthony Arline is a #1 CB playing in a #2 position. And the guys on the bench are pretty good, too.

I think our defensive line has a lot to prove, though. They have to show the ability to shut down the running attack (they looked good against TCU, with 2.9 yards per rush, but lackluster against NSU), and probably more importantly, the ability to pressure the QB.

I'm hoping that Bradley has got some tricks up his sleeve to get after WSUs QB in this game and maybe get him rattled. If we can get him to throw up some ducks, and we can turn them into turnovers, then we'll be giving our offense a much better chance to help us win the game.

Right now, I see WSU getting a couple long drives together and making key plays on offense to put some points on the board.

I see our offense struggling to do the same, although we might get a couple long plays sporadically.

I'm calling it (and I really, really hope I'm wrong):

Washington State - 27
Baylor - 16

What does a Win/Loss mean for the team?

The real answer for this question is always going to be: it depends. It depends on how we win/lose, it depends on what happens within the game and why we won/lost the way we did. Let's look at a couple scenarios that I think are possible, if not likely.

Baylor Loses a Close One
If Baylor loses a close one in which the defense possibly gives up a couple more scores than we would like, but the offense operates at a high level, then I think we can be optomistic about the rest of the season, despite a 1-2 start. If we lose a close one because the offense continues to shoot itself in the foot and fall apart in the redzone, then the outlook will continue to be gloomy.

Baylor Wins a Close One
Most of me says it doesn't matter how big or small the win, it's HUGE. But if we win a close one because of a particularly strong defensive effort and the offense does just enough to get us the win, I think we can be cautiously optomistic. Very cautiously. Full-blown optomism should be held back until the offense performs strongly against a D1 opponent, preferably a strong D1 opponent.

Baylor Blows WSU Out
There is no downside, and it would likely hallmark a 4-0 run through the rest of our non-conference and into conference play leading up to the Texas game.

Baylor Gets Blown Out
Back to square one. If the defense can't stop WSU, and our offense just continues to hinder us rather than help us, then this is a team headed for a 4-8 season.



Then again, there are always the injuries, and fluke turnovers/scores that can change all that. If WSU has their QB and RB go out on the first series (or BU, knock on wood), then that will dramatically change the way we look at this game.

Tomorrow can't come fast enough!

What's with all the drops!?

The last two games, Baylors new offense has been plagued by the worst thing possible in a pass-heavy scheme: drops.

What's the dealio!?

I've heard lots of explanations: not enough talent, new scheme, not enough focus, nerves, and on and on.

So what is it?

I don't know. I know that by having this blog, I'm supposed to be an expert or something (not really), but it seems to me that it's very likely a combination of many of these things.

I think learning the new scheme has a lot to do with this. They aren't used to going full speed against a live opponent. The receivers are trying to figure everything out, and they know that Bell knows the playbook forwards and backwards, so the onus is on them to make the right decision. The concentration thing plays into this as well. If they are concentrating on simply getting the right routes run, by the time the ball is on the way to them, it's hard to shift that focus or to just slide back into what's natural.

The good news is that this facet of it should be clearing up by now. They've had two games under their belt, they are bound to be more relaxed and ready to go, and they've got guys behind them breathing down their necks for playing time.

I think the Northwestern State game drops had something to do with the fact that with Zeigler out, we were not only counting on guys not used to getting as much playing time, but Bell didn't have Zeigler as a security blanket and had to find other guys. I think this is actually going to be a big bonus the rest of the year. Here's why...

I said earlier on the Baylor Football Blog that Bell was going to have to learn to not be so dependent on Zeigler, or he was going to get into trouble. I'm hoping that after this game when the ball got spread around so much, that Bell is aware that there are more people on the team that can help him out. Zeigler is a great receiver and deserves his looks, but maybe instead of 18-20 looks a game, Bell can cut it down to 12-14 and give those 6 other looks to guys like Baker, White, Teasley, Sims, Smith, Gettis, etc.

Trent Shelton also established himself as a great option in this offense. I've been confused why Shelton wasn't a bigger part of the offense last year, but recently I've learned some thing about the previous OC that gave me an idea about it. Whatever the case, Trent is getting the looks now and he's producing, averaging over 100 yds/game and 7 catches a game. Yes, it's early, but there's reason to believe that Trent can put up another 7 catches for 100 yards against WSU with their secondary. I think Trent is more of a natural fit for this offense than Zeigler, though that is to take away nothing from Zeiglers excellent talent and abilities.

And that brings us to the talent quesetion... Is our wide receiver corps as good as we think it is? And why do we think it's such hot stuff?

Let's take a look at the guys that we've got out there:

Dominique Zeigler -
I don't think there's any question that DZ is a great possession receiver with great athleticism and a guy that can catch the ball.

Trent Shelton -
As I said, he's averaging 7 catches for more than 100 yards a game, and he's got great size and speed.

Terrance Parks -
Still making the transition from QB, he's only a JR which is good for Baylor. He's got great size and even with his heft (270lbs!), he has shown he can move, get open and catch the ball. He's made some of the best catches so far this year in traffic.

Mikhail Baker -
Great speed, improving hands, he caught the only TD against TCU, and should be a fixture in this offense for the next two and a half years.

Ernest Smith -
Great size, great feet, and if he could be more consistent catching the ball, he'd likely be one of our top three receivers. After the catch, he has no problem making people miss.

David Gettis -
The true freshman that people thought was going to set the world on fire. It hasn't happened yet, but I think the hype might have gotten hold of him and he's trying to live up to it too much. If this guys gets going, though, watch out. Look for him to get more opportunities this weekend at WSU. Let's hope for a breakout game.

Carl Sims -
We haven't seen as much from Carl as I expected. I'm not sure why that is, but I'd love to know why that is. I thought he had a lot of potential in this offense and his absence is bewildering to me.

Quieto Teasley -
A heck of an athlete, with great speed. He's been in the doghouse, apparently, for not giving much effort, and taking the spring off for track didn't help, either. If he can show a good enough work ethic and get on the field, he'll be a star. He's one of the fastest receivers on the team, if not the fastest.

Thomas White -
A guy with a track background, he made the most of his appearance last week with NSU to take 2 of his 3 catches for touchdowns. Showing himself to be very comfortable running the screen plays, he should get more playing time against WSU. Give us a couple more TDs, will ya White Chocolate!?


I don't think there's any doubt that we've got talent on the field at wide receiver. We need Gettis to step up to make the corps everything we thought it would be, but Parks has been playing better than I think most people thought he would at the IR position.
The drops have to stop, but as Hays said, if they don't then the guys dropping passes will be on the sidelines wearing a baseball cap, and someone else will be on the field catching passes. There's too much depth to sit around and wait for someone to do their job.

And honestly, I have to believe that some of the drops were guys thinking that since they were playing a D1-AA school, they had a chance to take every catch for a touchdown, and they were thinking about that instead of focusing on just catching the pass to begin with. I think that's why Trent had such a good day, he is a veteran that knows what he needs to do and he does it.

All in all, I think we learn a lot about our team this weekend at WSU. I can't wait to get started!!

Key Matchups: Baylor v. WSU

Baylor will get on the road in two days and head up to Seattle, but what should we be focusing on heading up to gametime?

I think there are a few very important matchups in this game.

V.
1. Jason Hill v. CJ Wilson -
Hill is an All-American caliber receiver and Wilson is an All-American caliber cornerback. Here are both teams best players and they are going to match up in a battle that will go a long way in determining the winner. Wilson is leading the nation in interceptions with 3 INTs in two games, and Hill is averaging over 18 yards per catch with one TD.

Edge: Wilson. I usually like to give the receiver the edge, but despite his excellent average, Hill has only caught 6 passes all year, and Brink (WSUs starting QB) has thrown for less than 300 yards in both games this year.


V.
2. Baylor DL v. WSU OL -
Washington State has good starters on the line, though without a lot of depth. Baylor's defensive line has been a weakness for many years, and despite a lot of seniors on the line, they continue to be the weakness. The ends are going to have to manufacture some sort of push against WSUs very good tackles, and our defensive tackles are going to have to hold up against their interior line as WSU will try to cram the ball down our throats. Baylor held TCU to 2.9 yards per rush, so there is a chance that we will be able to contain the WSU attack, but we will have to give a big effort here to win.

Edge: WSU OL. Baylor's DL is going to have a lot to prove in this game. Let's hope they are up to the challenge.

[Vincent Rhodes and Charles Harris pictured]

V.
3. Woolridge v. Jones/Pawelek/Moore -
Baylor's linebackers are going to have to step up this week to control Washington State's starting running back Woolridge. He's a small back, but he has great speed and was racking up big yardage (over 80 yards in the second quarter) against Auburn before going down with a deep thigh bruise. He didn't play against Idaho, so he'll be rested and ready to go this week against Baylor.

Edge: Woolridge. Jones, JoePa and Nick are talented, but they have shown their inexperience this year. They will have to play much better to contain this back.

[I know, I know, that's Colin Allred, not any of our current Linebackers, but hey, you try and find a picture of Jones, Pawelek or Moore. It's a no-go!]


V.
4. Zeigler/Shelton v. WSU Secondary -
Shelton is coming off of a 9-catch, 158-yard game and Zielger got some much needed rest for his shoulder last week and should be ready to return to action. With the offense struggling a little bit, Bell will likely look to these two dependable receivers when push comes to shove. WSUs secondary is not that good. They gave up 220 yards passing to Idaho last week, and 191 yards to Auburn on opening day, while those totals might not sound bad, they are giving up 16.44 yards per completion (411 yards on 25 completions). Facing a team that is going to throw it 40+ times with a QB that is completing his passes at a 63.6% clip, that is not good news.

Edge: Zeigler/Shelton. I don't expect Baylor to average 16 yards per completion, but the big plays should be there for the taking, if the Baylor receivers can hold onto the ball.



That's two for Baylor, two for WSU. I have to say, I feel really good about our receivers against their secondary, and I feel really worried about their OL against our DL. I'm having a hard time convincing myself to predict a Baylor victory, honestly. I believe we CAN win, but I have no idea what to expect out of the team.

BUT! No need to worry about a prediction, yet. There's plenty of time for that yet.

Angelo State University Preview

Baylor's first opponent this year in a game that counts is Angelo State. ASU has a new coach and is going to be in a bit of transition as they will have to replace two of their top three scorers, and their 6th leading scorer as well. They also lose their leading rebounder from a year ago. All told, they lose 30.2ppg (40%), 15rpg (39.2%), 97 total assists (26.7%), and 56 steals (26%).

The good news is that they return talented junior Quinn Barfield. Barfield is a G/F that was the leading scorer (15.4) last year, second on the team in rebounds (5.4) and steals (29) and blocked an astounding 24 shots. He shot better than 50% from the floor as well.

The question will be, who else is going to be on the team to help him?

Nobody else returning averaged more than 10 points/game. One player who came close, averaging 9.4/game, is Ontario McKee, a 5-11 PG. He'll be a senior and likely counted on to get the offense rolling. And despite only playing in 22 games (of 27 possible) and starting only 15, McKee racked up 93 assists and 34 steals.

Angelo State is going to be very undersized compared to Baylor. Their tallest players are 6-7, and only one of those players saw time last year. Of the players that averaged 15 or more minutes a game last year, there is one player at 6-5, and two at 6-4.

Angelo state went 8-19 overall last year, and 0-12 in the Lone Star Conference. Their new head coach has been an assistant coach at Memphis and most recently UNT. He was hired in April 2006, and has said he will install pressure defense and an up-tempo offense.

Curiously, Baylor does not appear on the Angelo State University Men's Basketball schedule. It does show two exhibition games against UT-Arlington and UT-San Antonio prior to the date given on our schedule for the game, so they will have at the least seen some game action by the time they come to Waco.

Washington State up Next

Play time is over and the biggest test of the non-conference is here. Washington State has an offense that is going to put a strain even on Baylor's very good secondary, and enough defense to give our sputtering offense problems. This game is going to be tough for Baylor to keep close and tougher to win. But it IS a winnable game.

Washington State has a good QB in Alex Brink leading the offense and he's got a very good corps of wide-receivers including future first-day pick and All-American candidate Jason Hill. CJ Wilson will get his biggest test so far in this game and will have to come up big in order to simply contain him. The silver lining, I guess, is that he'll have some balls thrown his way so he should have opportunities for more interceptions! On the other side, Chris Jordan will keep Anthony Arline busy as well. And the linebackers and safeties are going to have their hands full with Cody Boyd, a 6-8 257-lb TE target. He only had 14-catches last year, but he already has 3 catches for 61 yards and a 50-yard TD pass in the first two games.

Something that I find very interesting is that Brink has only thrown 39 passes in two games, completing 23 of them (59%). I know he played very little in a blowout of Idaho, but that's not very many passes at all. And he's only thrown for 298 yards this year. Brink has been sharing time with Gary Rogers at QB, and the two of them combined have thrown for 443 yards, but Brink only managed 67 yards and 45.8% passing against Auburn in the opening game. Rogers managed 6/9 passing for 83 yards, and played a lot against Idaho, too, so we will likely see Rogers as well.

Rogers is a 6-5 QB that has a huge arm. He doesn't have a lot of mobility, but can put the ball anywhere. He only attempted 5 passes last year, but as I said above he's getting snaps this year.


The running back situation is an interesting one to watch and with games against #3 Auburn and Idaho, it's hard to get a read on what's really going on there. Woolridge, WSUs starting RB, is in the Darren Sproles mold. He's 5-8, stout and fast. Against Auburn he only had 9 carries, but took them for 86 yards. He had a long carry of 42 yards, so his 9.6 average is a bit misleading. He didn't score any touchdowns on the day, though. Darrell Hutsona is another running back for WSU, a JUCO transfer and WSUs top recruit last year. He's another smaller, fast back at 5-10 185-lbs. Hutson had 30-yards on 6 carries against Auburn, with half of those yards coming on one carry.

Against Idaho, the running backs had a much, much better day. Woolridge doesn't appear to have played, but Dwight Tardy had 15 carries for 91 yards and a touchdown, with a long carry of 22 yards. Hutsona had 68 yards on 9 carries with a long of 27 yards. Christopher Ivory only got 3 carries, but took one of them 80-yards for a touchdown late in the game.

The fact that Woolridge didn't play and that WSU played so many players, I'm not sure that Idaho is the best gauge for what their offense is going to do against our defense.

Washington States offensive line is very strong at the tackle position and while inexperienced, they are talented inside. They have a serious lack of depth at the OL, but the starters are very good. Our defensive line better come to play this game, or they are going to be pushed around and put too much stress on our linebackers and secondary to make plays in the running game.

The thing to remember is that this is an explosive offense we are going up against. We can't afford to miss tackles or assignments, because almost anyone that touches the ball can take it the distance. The secondary is going to have to be at their best in not only covering the receivers, but in coming up in run support to contain these runners. It's going to be a heavy task and will be a good measuring stick for just how good this defense is.


Next up is the Washington State defense and how we will likely fare against them.