What does a Win/Loss mean for the team?

The real answer for this question is always going to be: it depends. It depends on how we win/lose, it depends on what happens within the game and why we won/lost the way we did. Let's look at a couple scenarios that I think are possible, if not likely.

Baylor Loses a Close One
If Baylor loses a close one in which the defense possibly gives up a couple more scores than we would like, but the offense operates at a high level, then I think we can be optomistic about the rest of the season, despite a 1-2 start. If we lose a close one because the offense continues to shoot itself in the foot and fall apart in the redzone, then the outlook will continue to be gloomy.

Baylor Wins a Close One
Most of me says it doesn't matter how big or small the win, it's HUGE. But if we win a close one because of a particularly strong defensive effort and the offense does just enough to get us the win, I think we can be cautiously optomistic. Very cautiously. Full-blown optomism should be held back until the offense performs strongly against a D1 opponent, preferably a strong D1 opponent.

Baylor Blows WSU Out
There is no downside, and it would likely hallmark a 4-0 run through the rest of our non-conference and into conference play leading up to the Texas game.

Baylor Gets Blown Out
Back to square one. If the defense can't stop WSU, and our offense just continues to hinder us rather than help us, then this is a team headed for a 4-8 season.



Then again, there are always the injuries, and fluke turnovers/scores that can change all that. If WSU has their QB and RB go out on the first series (or BU, knock on wood), then that will dramatically change the way we look at this game.

Tomorrow can't come fast enough!

What's with all the drops!?

The last two games, Baylors new offense has been plagued by the worst thing possible in a pass-heavy scheme: drops.

What's the dealio!?

I've heard lots of explanations: not enough talent, new scheme, not enough focus, nerves, and on and on.

So what is it?

I don't know. I know that by having this blog, I'm supposed to be an expert or something (not really), but it seems to me that it's very likely a combination of many of these things.

I think learning the new scheme has a lot to do with this. They aren't used to going full speed against a live opponent. The receivers are trying to figure everything out, and they know that Bell knows the playbook forwards and backwards, so the onus is on them to make the right decision. The concentration thing plays into this as well. If they are concentrating on simply getting the right routes run, by the time the ball is on the way to them, it's hard to shift that focus or to just slide back into what's natural.

The good news is that this facet of it should be clearing up by now. They've had two games under their belt, they are bound to be more relaxed and ready to go, and they've got guys behind them breathing down their necks for playing time.

I think the Northwestern State game drops had something to do with the fact that with Zeigler out, we were not only counting on guys not used to getting as much playing time, but Bell didn't have Zeigler as a security blanket and had to find other guys. I think this is actually going to be a big bonus the rest of the year. Here's why...

I said earlier on the Baylor Football Blog that Bell was going to have to learn to not be so dependent on Zeigler, or he was going to get into trouble. I'm hoping that after this game when the ball got spread around so much, that Bell is aware that there are more people on the team that can help him out. Zeigler is a great receiver and deserves his looks, but maybe instead of 18-20 looks a game, Bell can cut it down to 12-14 and give those 6 other looks to guys like Baker, White, Teasley, Sims, Smith, Gettis, etc.

Trent Shelton also established himself as a great option in this offense. I've been confused why Shelton wasn't a bigger part of the offense last year, but recently I've learned some thing about the previous OC that gave me an idea about it. Whatever the case, Trent is getting the looks now and he's producing, averaging over 100 yds/game and 7 catches a game. Yes, it's early, but there's reason to believe that Trent can put up another 7 catches for 100 yards against WSU with their secondary. I think Trent is more of a natural fit for this offense than Zeigler, though that is to take away nothing from Zeiglers excellent talent and abilities.

And that brings us to the talent quesetion... Is our wide receiver corps as good as we think it is? And why do we think it's such hot stuff?

Let's take a look at the guys that we've got out there:

Dominique Zeigler -
I don't think there's any question that DZ is a great possession receiver with great athleticism and a guy that can catch the ball.

Trent Shelton -
As I said, he's averaging 7 catches for more than 100 yards a game, and he's got great size and speed.

Terrance Parks -
Still making the transition from QB, he's only a JR which is good for Baylor. He's got great size and even with his heft (270lbs!), he has shown he can move, get open and catch the ball. He's made some of the best catches so far this year in traffic.

Mikhail Baker -
Great speed, improving hands, he caught the only TD against TCU, and should be a fixture in this offense for the next two and a half years.

Ernest Smith -
Great size, great feet, and if he could be more consistent catching the ball, he'd likely be one of our top three receivers. After the catch, he has no problem making people miss.

David Gettis -
The true freshman that people thought was going to set the world on fire. It hasn't happened yet, but I think the hype might have gotten hold of him and he's trying to live up to it too much. If this guys gets going, though, watch out. Look for him to get more opportunities this weekend at WSU. Let's hope for a breakout game.

Carl Sims -
We haven't seen as much from Carl as I expected. I'm not sure why that is, but I'd love to know why that is. I thought he had a lot of potential in this offense and his absence is bewildering to me.

Quieto Teasley -
A heck of an athlete, with great speed. He's been in the doghouse, apparently, for not giving much effort, and taking the spring off for track didn't help, either. If he can show a good enough work ethic and get on the field, he'll be a star. He's one of the fastest receivers on the team, if not the fastest.

Thomas White -
A guy with a track background, he made the most of his appearance last week with NSU to take 2 of his 3 catches for touchdowns. Showing himself to be very comfortable running the screen plays, he should get more playing time against WSU. Give us a couple more TDs, will ya White Chocolate!?


I don't think there's any doubt that we've got talent on the field at wide receiver. We need Gettis to step up to make the corps everything we thought it would be, but Parks has been playing better than I think most people thought he would at the IR position.
The drops have to stop, but as Hays said, if they don't then the guys dropping passes will be on the sidelines wearing a baseball cap, and someone else will be on the field catching passes. There's too much depth to sit around and wait for someone to do their job.

And honestly, I have to believe that some of the drops were guys thinking that since they were playing a D1-AA school, they had a chance to take every catch for a touchdown, and they were thinking about that instead of focusing on just catching the pass to begin with. I think that's why Trent had such a good day, he is a veteran that knows what he needs to do and he does it.

All in all, I think we learn a lot about our team this weekend at WSU. I can't wait to get started!!

Key Matchups: Baylor v. WSU

Baylor will get on the road in two days and head up to Seattle, but what should we be focusing on heading up to gametime?

I think there are a few very important matchups in this game.

V.
1. Jason Hill v. CJ Wilson -
Hill is an All-American caliber receiver and Wilson is an All-American caliber cornerback. Here are both teams best players and they are going to match up in a battle that will go a long way in determining the winner. Wilson is leading the nation in interceptions with 3 INTs in two games, and Hill is averaging over 18 yards per catch with one TD.

Edge: Wilson. I usually like to give the receiver the edge, but despite his excellent average, Hill has only caught 6 passes all year, and Brink (WSUs starting QB) has thrown for less than 300 yards in both games this year.


V.
2. Baylor DL v. WSU OL -
Washington State has good starters on the line, though without a lot of depth. Baylor's defensive line has been a weakness for many years, and despite a lot of seniors on the line, they continue to be the weakness. The ends are going to have to manufacture some sort of push against WSUs very good tackles, and our defensive tackles are going to have to hold up against their interior line as WSU will try to cram the ball down our throats. Baylor held TCU to 2.9 yards per rush, so there is a chance that we will be able to contain the WSU attack, but we will have to give a big effort here to win.

Edge: WSU OL. Baylor's DL is going to have a lot to prove in this game. Let's hope they are up to the challenge.

[Vincent Rhodes and Charles Harris pictured]

V.
3. Woolridge v. Jones/Pawelek/Moore -
Baylor's linebackers are going to have to step up this week to control Washington State's starting running back Woolridge. He's a small back, but he has great speed and was racking up big yardage (over 80 yards in the second quarter) against Auburn before going down with a deep thigh bruise. He didn't play against Idaho, so he'll be rested and ready to go this week against Baylor.

Edge: Woolridge. Jones, JoePa and Nick are talented, but they have shown their inexperience this year. They will have to play much better to contain this back.

[I know, I know, that's Colin Allred, not any of our current Linebackers, but hey, you try and find a picture of Jones, Pawelek or Moore. It's a no-go!]


V.
4. Zeigler/Shelton v. WSU Secondary -
Shelton is coming off of a 9-catch, 158-yard game and Zielger got some much needed rest for his shoulder last week and should be ready to return to action. With the offense struggling a little bit, Bell will likely look to these two dependable receivers when push comes to shove. WSUs secondary is not that good. They gave up 220 yards passing to Idaho last week, and 191 yards to Auburn on opening day, while those totals might not sound bad, they are giving up 16.44 yards per completion (411 yards on 25 completions). Facing a team that is going to throw it 40+ times with a QB that is completing his passes at a 63.6% clip, that is not good news.

Edge: Zeigler/Shelton. I don't expect Baylor to average 16 yards per completion, but the big plays should be there for the taking, if the Baylor receivers can hold onto the ball.



That's two for Baylor, two for WSU. I have to say, I feel really good about our receivers against their secondary, and I feel really worried about their OL against our DL. I'm having a hard time convincing myself to predict a Baylor victory, honestly. I believe we CAN win, but I have no idea what to expect out of the team.

BUT! No need to worry about a prediction, yet. There's plenty of time for that yet.

Angelo State University Preview

Baylor's first opponent this year in a game that counts is Angelo State. ASU has a new coach and is going to be in a bit of transition as they will have to replace two of their top three scorers, and their 6th leading scorer as well. They also lose their leading rebounder from a year ago. All told, they lose 30.2ppg (40%), 15rpg (39.2%), 97 total assists (26.7%), and 56 steals (26%).

The good news is that they return talented junior Quinn Barfield. Barfield is a G/F that was the leading scorer (15.4) last year, second on the team in rebounds (5.4) and steals (29) and blocked an astounding 24 shots. He shot better than 50% from the floor as well.

The question will be, who else is going to be on the team to help him?

Nobody else returning averaged more than 10 points/game. One player who came close, averaging 9.4/game, is Ontario McKee, a 5-11 PG. He'll be a senior and likely counted on to get the offense rolling. And despite only playing in 22 games (of 27 possible) and starting only 15, McKee racked up 93 assists and 34 steals.

Angelo State is going to be very undersized compared to Baylor. Their tallest players are 6-7, and only one of those players saw time last year. Of the players that averaged 15 or more minutes a game last year, there is one player at 6-5, and two at 6-4.

Angelo state went 8-19 overall last year, and 0-12 in the Lone Star Conference. Their new head coach has been an assistant coach at Memphis and most recently UNT. He was hired in April 2006, and has said he will install pressure defense and an up-tempo offense.

Curiously, Baylor does not appear on the Angelo State University Men's Basketball schedule. It does show two exhibition games against UT-Arlington and UT-San Antonio prior to the date given on our schedule for the game, so they will have at the least seen some game action by the time they come to Waco.

Washington State up Next

Play time is over and the biggest test of the non-conference is here. Washington State has an offense that is going to put a strain even on Baylor's very good secondary, and enough defense to give our sputtering offense problems. This game is going to be tough for Baylor to keep close and tougher to win. But it IS a winnable game.

Washington State has a good QB in Alex Brink leading the offense and he's got a very good corps of wide-receivers including future first-day pick and All-American candidate Jason Hill. CJ Wilson will get his biggest test so far in this game and will have to come up big in order to simply contain him. The silver lining, I guess, is that he'll have some balls thrown his way so he should have opportunities for more interceptions! On the other side, Chris Jordan will keep Anthony Arline busy as well. And the linebackers and safeties are going to have their hands full with Cody Boyd, a 6-8 257-lb TE target. He only had 14-catches last year, but he already has 3 catches for 61 yards and a 50-yard TD pass in the first two games.

Something that I find very interesting is that Brink has only thrown 39 passes in two games, completing 23 of them (59%). I know he played very little in a blowout of Idaho, but that's not very many passes at all. And he's only thrown for 298 yards this year. Brink has been sharing time with Gary Rogers at QB, and the two of them combined have thrown for 443 yards, but Brink only managed 67 yards and 45.8% passing against Auburn in the opening game. Rogers managed 6/9 passing for 83 yards, and played a lot against Idaho, too, so we will likely see Rogers as well.

Rogers is a 6-5 QB that has a huge arm. He doesn't have a lot of mobility, but can put the ball anywhere. He only attempted 5 passes last year, but as I said above he's getting snaps this year.


The running back situation is an interesting one to watch and with games against #3 Auburn and Idaho, it's hard to get a read on what's really going on there. Woolridge, WSUs starting RB, is in the Darren Sproles mold. He's 5-8, stout and fast. Against Auburn he only had 9 carries, but took them for 86 yards. He had a long carry of 42 yards, so his 9.6 average is a bit misleading. He didn't score any touchdowns on the day, though. Darrell Hutsona is another running back for WSU, a JUCO transfer and WSUs top recruit last year. He's another smaller, fast back at 5-10 185-lbs. Hutson had 30-yards on 6 carries against Auburn, with half of those yards coming on one carry.

Against Idaho, the running backs had a much, much better day. Woolridge doesn't appear to have played, but Dwight Tardy had 15 carries for 91 yards and a touchdown, with a long carry of 22 yards. Hutsona had 68 yards on 9 carries with a long of 27 yards. Christopher Ivory only got 3 carries, but took one of them 80-yards for a touchdown late in the game.

The fact that Woolridge didn't play and that WSU played so many players, I'm not sure that Idaho is the best gauge for what their offense is going to do against our defense.

Washington States offensive line is very strong at the tackle position and while inexperienced, they are talented inside. They have a serious lack of depth at the OL, but the starters are very good. Our defensive line better come to play this game, or they are going to be pushed around and put too much stress on our linebackers and secondary to make plays in the running game.

The thing to remember is that this is an explosive offense we are going up against. We can't afford to miss tackles or assignments, because almost anyone that touches the ball can take it the distance. The secondary is going to have to be at their best in not only covering the receivers, but in coming up in run support to contain these runners. It's going to be a heavy task and will be a good measuring stick for just how good this defense is.


Next up is the Washington State defense and how we will likely fare against them.

After a Nights Rest

Baylor won 47-10. It wasn't the prettiest or most dominant game, but we did win by 37 points and the game was never in question. This is a far cry from the Texas State game we won 24-17 on a late drive in the fourth quarter for the win.


There are definitely things that we need to improve. The two main things are offensive fluidity and a pass rush. I'm starting to believe that Bell is scared to go deep because he knows he doesn't have a strong arm. I haven't seen any video of the game, but from numerous people that were there, Bell opted not to try for a longer route and would throw it to a safer, shorter option on a number of occassions. I believe this is what Morriss was talking about when he said Bell needed more of a "Gunslinger" mentality.

The pass rush was pathetic. Only 3 sacks on the night, and only 7 TFL. That is what I would expect against a good D1 team, not a D1-AA team. Kansas gave up 217 yards passing and 62 yards rushing to NSU for a total of 279 yards. Baylor gave up fewer passing yards (182 yards), but way more rushing yardage (147 yards).

Our tackles have got to be more of a force. Yes, I know that MT Robinson was sitting out and that would be a big deal if he was a first-day draft prospect, but he's not. He's a solid player, but so are Ford, Shoals, Jenkins, Rhodes, etc. We had plenty of guys that should have been able to not only control the line of scrimmage, but destory it and rebuild it in their backfield every down.

And yes, the T.O.P. was against the defense. And I could give them somewhat of an understanding nod to that at the end of the halves, but at the end of the half they forced two 3 and outs and a 5 play, 13-yard drive that ended in a punt. It was at the BEGINNING of the 2nd half that they allowed to drives totalling 16 plays and 135 yards for 10 points. Did Bradley have the defense running wind sprints in the lockerroom or did he put them through a quick weight-lifting workout to even things up?

And from the reports I've received it had nothing to do with being tired, it was a serious lack of passion. The only people that showed a lot of energy on the day, from what I've heard, were CJ Wilson and Trent Shelton. And shockingly, they both had big games! Imagine if the whole team came to play the way they did... We'd have that 77-0 victory with over 600 yards of offense that everyone is clamoring for. Don't tell me we don't have the team to do it, either.

Shoot. I started this entry with the intent of it being a positive one. We got the win, we got a big margin, we got some playing time for younger players, and we did it without three starters. The focus should be better next week against Washington State, the offense and defense both should be better in their third week of work, and hopefully the coaches will have a clearer picture of what they need to do with our players.

I still think we can beat Washington State. I think if the defense plays inspired football like they did against TCU, they can be very successful against WSU. I think if the offense takes another step forward, then we'll be able to put up points against them. But they are going to show that they are able to play to their potential, because as someone used to say to me, "Potential is just something you haven't shown you can do yet".

Early Returns on NSU

Well, I'm finding it hard to figure out why I am so frustrated with a 47-10 win. Well, maybe it's not so hard to figure out, but you'd think a Baylor fan would be thankful for a blowout like this since it hasn't happened in so long.

It'd be healthier for me to just deal with the positives, but let's look at the things that are really getting to me (and I think those that have been reading for a while will know what #1 is going to be):

1. Shawn Bell
OK, the receivers had a lot of drops, and I don't blame the interception on him (and I didn't blame him last week either). And I do know that he completed more than 60% of his passes (60.9%). But I just find it so hard to find a 288-yard performance against a D1-AA school something to cheer about. And remember, ESPECIALLY in this offense, it all starts with the quarterback, so I don't want to hear about how it's not his fault. He'll get the credit for the wins he's responsible for (he's been living on the 2004 A&M game for 2 years now), but he needs to take some of the heat for the games we don't win because of his incredible averageness. Honestly, I like Bell in this offense, and I DO think things are going to get better as the year goes on, but right now this is definitely an area of frustration. So readers, if you think I'm being too harsh on Bell, you're probably right, but I'll be his best friend (hopefully) later in the year when the offense is rolling.

And if you want to know exactly where my frustration stems from, it's the period of time from 7:34 in the 2nd quarter to 2:35 in the 2nd quarter, when Bell went 0/5 with a sack. Bell was lucky on the first drive that he got ridiculously good field position and Whitaker broke off a 20-yard run to put them in FG range. On the second drive, he wasn't so lucky and we had to punt it. I'm glad we got points on the first drive, but against a AA school, that should be a touchdown.

2. Defensive line
I think you could also title this section "Defensive concentration"... Let me be clear, I think we have a pretty salty defense, and I really like having a defense that believes they can shut anyone down, but for some reason this defense of ours just tries to put themselves in the worst possible situations. I don't know if they just have a flair for the dramatic, or if they believe that they are always going to come up with the big turnover or what, but this is getting out of hand! We had 7 drives that went 5 plays or longer, and 5 drives that went for more than 25 yards, three that went for more than 40 yards. Worst of all was the TEN play drive for EIGHTY yards and a TOUCHDOWN! COME ON!! This included 6 rushes for 26 yards (4.3ypc) and 3/4 passing for 50 yards and a touchdown. That's ridiculous.

3. Penalties.
10 penalties for 130 yards. NSU was complaining about their penalties (20 for 139 yards), but we got nearly the same yardage in half the penalties. TOO many mental mistakes on the line. We have got to get that stuff figured out by next week.

4. Running Game
I don't think the running backs are bad. I think Whitaker and Mosley are very talented. But when one of them is out, you don't just cut out their carries. This isn't on the players, it's on the coaches. If the running game isn't doing what you want it to, figure out how to make it effective, you don't just stop running the ball. Here's an idea, go deep a few times and get the defense to stop loading up the box. Whitaker touched the ball six times tonight. Six. 4 rushes, 2 passes. Total yardage = 37 yards. So, he's averaging 6 yards per touch, but big deal if he's only touching the ball 6 times a game. Give him at least 10 carries and at least 6 pass opportunities a game, please! If you want someone to respect a threat, you have to make them respect it.


There are positives, too. They don't make me as excited, because we got them against a D1-AA team, but they are positive nevertheless.

1. CJ Wilson
CJ is my favorite player. If he wasn't among the favorites for the Thorpe award before, he should be getting there soon. I know it was a D1-AA team, but the guy has 3 INTs on the season already, with one returned for a TD. He's a great defensive back who like to joke around, but seems genuinely humble when really talked to. I don't know why people throw towards him still, but I don't think it will take long before they stop doing so.

2. Trent Shelton
The guy might not want to be a star receiver, but he's there. 9 catches for 158 yards and a touchdown. You kidding me? THAT's what you're supposed to do against D1-AA opponents. That is a great performance.

3. Shawn Bell
"Huh?" you ask. Yes, Bell was a positive and a negative tonight. That, sadly, equals out to a 0, which I guess is the minimum we ask of our quarterbacks after living with Greg Cicero, Aaron Karas, etc, etc. Bell did what I have said I want him to do. Average over 7 yards per attempt (7.02ypa), and over 10 yards per completion (11.5ypc). He threw 4 TDs against 1 INT, and the interception was off another tipped ball (this one by a Baylor receiver, not a DL).

4. Joe Pawelek and Antonio Jones
The kids came to play. They got the start at linebacker, and really put on a performance. 9 tackles, .5 TFL and a QB hurry for JoePa, and Jones wasn't bad either (6 tackles, .5 TFL). I need to see the two of them against WSU and Army, but I really like these young linebackers.

5. Trey Payne and Thomas White
I called Trey out yesterday saying he needed to catch the ball, and I think he heard me (I'm kidding). Payne and White both only grabbed 3 passes each, but both made them count with 2 TDs a piece. Payne only got 30 yards, but they were very valuable yards coming in the redzone. White got one of his scores from farther out (27 yards), but also got a redzone score. Great job, guys!

There are more positives, Jake LaMar and Blake Szymanski chief among them. Jake grabbed an interception and Blake went 2/3 for 42 yards and a TD pass. Jordan Lake forced a fumble and recovered it.

Here are some other things I wonder about:

Terrance Parks - Where did he go?

David Gettis - Where is the man?

Mikhail Baker - Are you with Terrance?

Braelon Davis - When did James Todd pass you up?

Coach Bradley - Where are the adjustments at half time?

Coach Morriss - Is the OL coach going to be fired if the lineman can't keep from fidgeting pre-snap?


That's all I got tonight. All in all, a good win. Let's get ready for Washington State!