I don't know who all reads this but if you are a Baylor fan, repeat after me: No Bowl for Baylor. Look, don't be naive, or frankly stupid, to hold out hope for a bowl this season. Let me give you 5 reasons why Baylor won't even sniff a bowl this year.
(1) 5-3 in the Big 12. We have won 8 Big 12 games in 10 years and you think we are going to win 5 this year. It doesn't matter even if the Big 12 is down. Small bottom-feeding private football teams that have poor non-conference showings never, I mean never, recover to do well in their power conference.
(2) QB. Shawn Bell doesn't have the arm to beat more than half the conference. Szymanski is too young. Same with Beatty. Who really knows how good they are anyways. They are backing up Bell after all.
(3) Comparison game, part 1. We love to compare don't we, especially on this blog. Pevoto has thrown x interceptions per game. Our defense has forced y interceptions per game. Thus, we will force xy interceptions this game and will dominate. Stop it. No really stop it. Or well we scored 7 points against TCU and Tech only scored 3 points. We should beat them. Never mind that we played TCU at home. Tech played them on the road. And we play Tech at their place. It's stupid to try and compare, especially when the comparison game doesn't work in our favor. Do you think Baylor could have gone down to Athens and scared the junk out of Georgia? A win at Colorado is by no means a guarantee.
(4) Comparison game, part 2. "Winnable" games. What does that even mean? If Shawn Bell doesn't play like Shawn Bell has for the past three years, if the defense doesn't tire per usual late in games thanks to the offense, if Baylor doesn't shoot itself in the foot with a killer turnover or penalties, then we might win. Not to mention, we have an opponent that generally has a ton more experience winning conference games regardless of who is on their roster. You can claim to have 8 winnable games in conference this year for all I care. But you lose at home to Army - that doesn't help us with our comparison game. And I think it should re-define what a "winnable" game is.
(5) Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma. Boom - three losses. You think we will beat K-State at home. And Colorado and OK State on the road. Well, at least A&M and Kansas will be two easy cheapies . . . yeah, right.
Wake up everyone. The writing is on the wall. Teams that are 0-3 and lose to Army at home have no hope. I don't say this to be mean. I am just trying to keep you from getting hurt yet again by Baylor. Become numb . . . it helps. Trust me.
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
The Great Debate: Quarterback
So the question running through Baylor Fandom these days is what to do with the Quarterback situation.
Let's take a look at our options, shall we?
Shawn Bell -
He led Baylor through part of 2004, most of 2005 and all of 2006. He has struggled from the beginning to be an explosive player, but received high marks for not throwing "the" interception. The one that killed the team.
He struggled to start the 2005 campaign, throwing 2 interceptions against both SMU and Army, but they were (understandably) overshadowed by the win. He improved as the year went on, but that disturbing trend reappeared. And now it's not the DBs intercepting passes, but defensive ends...
Bell again threw 4 interceptions in his first 3 games this year, before turning in a zero-interception effort against Army. The problem is the "1"s. He has thrown for 1 touchdown in each game against a D1-A opponent so far, no more, no less. That's something that has to stop.
Blake Szymanski -
He grew up in the spread offense in high school, came to Baylor and redshirted. His only appearance thus far was mop-up duty against NSU that didn't really show us anything about him. He's got a bigger arm, though accuracy is a question. He's got more athleticism, so he could use his feet to escape trouble if need be.
I'd like to see him get more snaps in live games, preferably in times when the game isn't on the line, but when the snaps are still meaningful.
Tyler Beatty -
Big, strong kid. The coaches really, really like his potential in this offense, but I seriously doubt they'd burn his redshirt to see him in the games. Especially not if Blake isn't even getting on the field.
I expect Beatty to be challenging both Blake and Kinne next spring (assuming Kinne enrolls in January) for the starting position. It should be a pretty significant battle and should lead to us having our best QB corps and depth since before Steele, albeit young players.
As I said, I think Blake needs to be given more opportunities to see what he can do. And he doesn't need to get the Parks treatment where he's thrown in at the end of the game to heave balls deep when the defense knows exactly what's coming. Give him the fourth series of the game (Bell always starts to stall there anyway), and give him two series. Then do the same thing in the third quarter, giving him the 4th and 5th series of the game, assuming we aren't down by more than 1 score.
Washington State has done this and they are grooming their backup to take over. And he's been able to give them a spark. Maybe Blake can do the same thing. Maybe not. But we don't know right now.
And I still think that if Bells sucks it up and makes an effort to get some passes to the next level of the defense, then he can be successful in this offense. I just don't have confidence in his willingness to do that. Prove me wrong, Shawn.
Let's take a look at our options, shall we?
Shawn Bell -
He led Baylor through part of 2004, most of 2005 and all of 2006. He has struggled from the beginning to be an explosive player, but received high marks for not throwing "the" interception. The one that killed the team.
He struggled to start the 2005 campaign, throwing 2 interceptions against both SMU and Army, but they were (understandably) overshadowed by the win. He improved as the year went on, but that disturbing trend reappeared. And now it's not the DBs intercepting passes, but defensive ends...
Bell again threw 4 interceptions in his first 3 games this year, before turning in a zero-interception effort against Army. The problem is the "1"s. He has thrown for 1 touchdown in each game against a D1-A opponent so far, no more, no less. That's something that has to stop.
Blake Szymanski -
He grew up in the spread offense in high school, came to Baylor and redshirted. His only appearance thus far was mop-up duty against NSU that didn't really show us anything about him. He's got a bigger arm, though accuracy is a question. He's got more athleticism, so he could use his feet to escape trouble if need be.
I'd like to see him get more snaps in live games, preferably in times when the game isn't on the line, but when the snaps are still meaningful.
Tyler Beatty -
Big, strong kid. The coaches really, really like his potential in this offense, but I seriously doubt they'd burn his redshirt to see him in the games. Especially not if Blake isn't even getting on the field.
I expect Beatty to be challenging both Blake and Kinne next spring (assuming Kinne enrolls in January) for the starting position. It should be a pretty significant battle and should lead to us having our best QB corps and depth since before Steele, albeit young players.
As I said, I think Blake needs to be given more opportunities to see what he can do. And he doesn't need to get the Parks treatment where he's thrown in at the end of the game to heave balls deep when the defense knows exactly what's coming. Give him the fourth series of the game (Bell always starts to stall there anyway), and give him two series. Then do the same thing in the third quarter, giving him the 4th and 5th series of the game, assuming we aren't down by more than 1 score.
Washington State has done this and they are grooming their backup to take over. And he's been able to give them a spark. Maybe Blake can do the same thing. Maybe not. But we don't know right now.
And I still think that if Bells sucks it up and makes an effort to get some passes to the next level of the defense, then he can be successful in this offense. I just don't have confidence in his willingness to do that. Prove me wrong, Shawn.
Where Do We Go From Here!?
Is the season over already?
Here we are sitting at 1-3 and it almost feels like the Steele years. Is that possible? How could that be?
Under Steele we would grab all our wins in the non-conference and slide down a slippery slope of sucking until the culmination blowouts at the end of the year. Under Morriss, in previous years we've gotten better and better as the year wore on.
So, is the season over?
I hope not.
As a smart blogger, I wouldn't be so dire about the situation, but it's hard for me to muster a lot of optimism right now. As we build to the Kansas State game, I'm going to try and rebuild my belief in this team and this coaching staff.
We can't go back to the Army game to gain any comfort, I already covered that, but we can look to the more distant past and try and gain some perspective.
I believe that Morriss' teams have shown a couple things. They play to the level of their competition almost always. While that hurts them a lot in games against nobodies or weaker teams, it helps in those upsets. I still think we have an upset in us, but the question that rises before me is: Is Kansas State going to be an upset, or is Texas Tech?
But the answer to that question would answer the question about how our season as a whole would go.
Let's review our goal for the year:
Bowl Game.
We need to win 5 more games to get there. 5 Big XII Games.
At the beginning of the year I said that there were 6 winnable games in the Big XII, so we have to over 80% of the winnable games. I believe we will likely be favored in one or two of those games. Kansas State we are already favored in, and we might give some points against Kansas, unless something miraculous happens.
This is a one-game season. Kansas State is the only team that matters. Win against KSU and we are tied for first in the Big XII. Seeing how important this game is becoming, I'm almost certain to be reneging on my unwillingness to go to Waco for the game.
Rant over. Optimism-level rising. Hope in restoration process.
Here we are sitting at 1-3 and it almost feels like the Steele years. Is that possible? How could that be?
Under Steele we would grab all our wins in the non-conference and slide down a slippery slope of sucking until the culmination blowouts at the end of the year. Under Morriss, in previous years we've gotten better and better as the year wore on.
So, is the season over?
I hope not.
As a smart blogger, I wouldn't be so dire about the situation, but it's hard for me to muster a lot of optimism right now. As we build to the Kansas State game, I'm going to try and rebuild my belief in this team and this coaching staff.
We can't go back to the Army game to gain any comfort, I already covered that, but we can look to the more distant past and try and gain some perspective.
I believe that Morriss' teams have shown a couple things. They play to the level of their competition almost always. While that hurts them a lot in games against nobodies or weaker teams, it helps in those upsets. I still think we have an upset in us, but the question that rises before me is: Is Kansas State going to be an upset, or is Texas Tech?
But the answer to that question would answer the question about how our season as a whole would go.
Let's review our goal for the year:
Bowl Game.
We need to win 5 more games to get there. 5 Big XII Games.
At the beginning of the year I said that there were 6 winnable games in the Big XII, so we have to over 80% of the winnable games. I believe we will likely be favored in one or two of those games. Kansas State we are already favored in, and we might give some points against Kansas, unless something miraculous happens.
This is a one-game season. Kansas State is the only team that matters. Win against KSU and we are tied for first in the Big XII. Seeing how important this game is becoming, I'm almost certain to be reneging on my unwillingness to go to Waco for the game.
Rant over. Optimism-level rising. Hope in restoration process.
Monday, September 25, 2006
Let's Get Rid of Those Pesky Silver Linings
It's easy to look back on a Monday morning and think, "Maybe it wasn't so bad!" Let me assure you that it was every bit as bad as you once thought. I know it feels a bit like a dream, like you can't really believe it happened. More than once I've thought, "Didn't we have a bye week like the Cowboys?"
That's called a coping mechanism.
But before we can move on to the rest of the season, we have to deal with our trauma, so let's get rid of any rationalizations we might have constructed since the game ended.
#1. The Defense Only Gave Up 13 Points in Regulation
I heard our very own Super Bill Bradley utter this silver lining. Let's remember that this was an army team who should have been overpowered at every point. We let them run up and down the field against us, and the only reason this went into overtime in the first place was their FG kicker missed two 36-yard kicks. TWO! In the first quarter. Had he done his job, the game would have ended 26-17, or possibly 26-24. I guess there's a chance that we could have gotten the touchdown at the end, then kicked an onside kick, recovered it and then scored again, but based on our incompetence leading up to that point, I just can't believe it would have worked out that way.
But let's not take solace in the fact that their kicker has ridiculously bad range.
#2. Shawn Bell had Great Production
This kills me. I know I've been harsh on Bell, and I know I have said many times in many places that I didn't think he was a good QB at the BCS level. I think he'd be a good WAC QB, or even maybe in the right ConfUSA situation. But he's no BCS quarterback.
But his supporters keep bringing up his completion percentage, his "leadership", his flashes of very good play as justification for the fact that the kid just doesn't make plays. He's the anti-playmaker. He averaged 9.26 yards per completion for the game, after averaging over 12 yards per completion in the first quarter. He averaged 6.9 yards per attempt in the game, after averaging over 9 yards per attempt in the first half.
Bell needs to average over 7.5 yards per attempt. He needs to average over 10 yards per completion. That would have meant throwing for at least 19 yards more this game.
But what's 19 yards passing in this game? Well, in OT, that would have put us on the 2 yard line. Think we could have scored from there with 4 tries. Actually, I don't know, so it might be a moot point.
#3. We held Army to less than 280 yards of offense
We let Army rush for 3.7 yards per carry. Strangely that's the same yards per carry that we allowed to NSU. I don't know if the team approached these opponents in the same way, but that's a startling fact. We gave up fewer yards passing to Army, but we lost the game.
And that's the biggest stat of the evening. "1". As in the number of losses we gained that night. 1.
#4. The Offense Got More Experience
This one is true, but I wonder how much more experience do we need doing the exact same, pathetic thing? This team already knew how to lose. We can stop practicing that now. How about we practice taking that first drive and replicating it over and over again?
That's really all the silver linings I can come up with for the game. I hope it is clear that there is one thing and only one thing that is positive that we can take away from this game. Other than this one thing, this game was a complete negative. And this one thing would have happened no matter the outcome, so it's not really a reflection on the team, the coaches, the performance, etc. What's that one thing?
It's over.
We can move on, because we have much taller tasks ahead of us.
I'm not doing a Top 5 this week, because I couldn't come up with 5 positive things that happened in the game. I might have been able to come up with 5 good plays, but that's too pitiful for me to waste my time on.
Anyone wish we could trade this for another 62-0 blowout by Texas?
That's called a coping mechanism.
But before we can move on to the rest of the season, we have to deal with our trauma, so let's get rid of any rationalizations we might have constructed since the game ended.
#1. The Defense Only Gave Up 13 Points in Regulation
I heard our very own Super Bill Bradley utter this silver lining. Let's remember that this was an army team who should have been overpowered at every point. We let them run up and down the field against us, and the only reason this went into overtime in the first place was their FG kicker missed two 36-yard kicks. TWO! In the first quarter. Had he done his job, the game would have ended 26-17, or possibly 26-24. I guess there's a chance that we could have gotten the touchdown at the end, then kicked an onside kick, recovered it and then scored again, but based on our incompetence leading up to that point, I just can't believe it would have worked out that way.
But let's not take solace in the fact that their kicker has ridiculously bad range.
#2. Shawn Bell had Great Production
This kills me. I know I've been harsh on Bell, and I know I have said many times in many places that I didn't think he was a good QB at the BCS level. I think he'd be a good WAC QB, or even maybe in the right ConfUSA situation. But he's no BCS quarterback.
But his supporters keep bringing up his completion percentage, his "leadership", his flashes of very good play as justification for the fact that the kid just doesn't make plays. He's the anti-playmaker. He averaged 9.26 yards per completion for the game, after averaging over 12 yards per completion in the first quarter. He averaged 6.9 yards per attempt in the game, after averaging over 9 yards per attempt in the first half.
Bell needs to average over 7.5 yards per attempt. He needs to average over 10 yards per completion. That would have meant throwing for at least 19 yards more this game.
But what's 19 yards passing in this game? Well, in OT, that would have put us on the 2 yard line. Think we could have scored from there with 4 tries. Actually, I don't know, so it might be a moot point.
#3. We held Army to less than 280 yards of offense
We let Army rush for 3.7 yards per carry. Strangely that's the same yards per carry that we allowed to NSU. I don't know if the team approached these opponents in the same way, but that's a startling fact. We gave up fewer yards passing to Army, but we lost the game.
And that's the biggest stat of the evening. "1". As in the number of losses we gained that night. 1.
#4. The Offense Got More Experience
This one is true, but I wonder how much more experience do we need doing the exact same, pathetic thing? This team already knew how to lose. We can stop practicing that now. How about we practice taking that first drive and replicating it over and over again?
That's really all the silver linings I can come up with for the game. I hope it is clear that there is one thing and only one thing that is positive that we can take away from this game. Other than this one thing, this game was a complete negative. And this one thing would have happened no matter the outcome, so it's not really a reflection on the team, the coaches, the performance, etc. What's that one thing?
It's over.
We can move on, because we have much taller tasks ahead of us.
I'm not doing a Top 5 this week, because I couldn't come up with 5 positive things that happened in the game. I might have been able to come up with 5 good plays, but that's too pitiful for me to waste my time on.
Anyone wish we could trade this for another 62-0 blowout by Texas?
Sunday, September 24, 2006
We are a Bad Football Team
I should probably wait until tomorrow to let me cool my head, but frankly this team doesn't deserve that.
There is not one player on this team, and not one coach, that has anything to be proud of tonight. I'd be worried that they were going to fold after this loss if I didn't think they already had. This was not a team fighting for a bowl game, this is a team that was going through the motions. They were a 1-2 team strutting around like they were 3-0. Should they have been? Probably. But the fact of the matter is that they were 1-2. And now they are 1-3. And I don't see any reason they won't be 1-4 next weekend. I know I won't be there next weekend. What's the point?
Quarterbacks -
Congrats on the record, Shawn. You've completed more passes to the flats and on 5-yard outs than anyone in Baylor history. There isn't a single QB on the top 10 list that I wouldn't trade for right this second.
Running Backs -
Paul, I'm glad to see you took the blame for us being in overtime to begin with. You turned it on late, but the second and third quarters is where we really could have used you.
Wide Receivers -
I know, you need someone to get you the ball, I know. But you have to realize that the guy taking the snaps is as good as he's ever going to be, and so you have to step up even more. Trent you had a nice game, but you have to make that catch in overtime. That was the season you dropped.
Offensive Line -
If you thought Cameron Craig was a tough block, you're going to be wetting your pants going into the Big XII. You only gave up one sack, but the team averaged 2.2 yards per carry. That's ridiculous against a team that has averaged 227 yards rushing allowed this year.
Defensive Line -
1 sack against a line you outweighed easily. You are supposed to be Big XII players. Apparently that's just a conference association, not a measurement of your talent.
Linebackers -
Nick Moore had a nice game, but we gave up HUGE rushes in the fourth quarter. 51 yards on 4 attempts on one drive, right before they scored. They averaged 12.7 yards per rush on that drive.
Secondary -
The QB hadn't thrown a touchdown pass all year. He'd averaged over 2 interceptions a game. And he's facing our secondary. No problem, right? Wrong. It felt like the Steele years, making average players look like Heisman candidates. 68% completion, 0 interceptions, 1 touchdown.
Special Teams -
Possibly more than anyone, you lost the game. And that's really, really saying something. Daniel, if you need to take some time to get healthy, do it. Right now you're hurting us.
Coaches -
Here's the kicker, the team is talented enough to be 4-0. There's only one reason that this team is NOT 4-0, they chose not to prepare in such a way to be undefeated. There's is far too much talent on this team to be playing this poorly.
Colorado hasn't won a game all year and looked so much better than we did today against a Top 10 team, while we played a 1-2 service academy.
Kansas State has only beaten cupcakse and got trounced by a Louisville team missing their starting QB and starting RB, and they looked better than we did tonight.
We have a very good chance of being 1-5 heading into the tough part of the schedule. And it's all because the team chose to believe that they were good enough to play this game without hard work, dedication and focus.
Don't be surprised if there are fewer than 25,000 people at the game next week. You (and I'm talking directly to the team right now) have a LOT to prove to the fans of Baylor Football that you are worth paying attention to.
There is not one player on this team, and not one coach, that has anything to be proud of tonight. I'd be worried that they were going to fold after this loss if I didn't think they already had. This was not a team fighting for a bowl game, this is a team that was going through the motions. They were a 1-2 team strutting around like they were 3-0. Should they have been? Probably. But the fact of the matter is that they were 1-2. And now they are 1-3. And I don't see any reason they won't be 1-4 next weekend. I know I won't be there next weekend. What's the point?
Quarterbacks -
Congrats on the record, Shawn. You've completed more passes to the flats and on 5-yard outs than anyone in Baylor history. There isn't a single QB on the top 10 list that I wouldn't trade for right this second.
Running Backs -
Paul, I'm glad to see you took the blame for us being in overtime to begin with. You turned it on late, but the second and third quarters is where we really could have used you.
Wide Receivers -
I know, you need someone to get you the ball, I know. But you have to realize that the guy taking the snaps is as good as he's ever going to be, and so you have to step up even more. Trent you had a nice game, but you have to make that catch in overtime. That was the season you dropped.
Offensive Line -
If you thought Cameron Craig was a tough block, you're going to be wetting your pants going into the Big XII. You only gave up one sack, but the team averaged 2.2 yards per carry. That's ridiculous against a team that has averaged 227 yards rushing allowed this year.
Defensive Line -
1 sack against a line you outweighed easily. You are supposed to be Big XII players. Apparently that's just a conference association, not a measurement of your talent.
Linebackers -
Nick Moore had a nice game, but we gave up HUGE rushes in the fourth quarter. 51 yards on 4 attempts on one drive, right before they scored. They averaged 12.7 yards per rush on that drive.
Secondary -
The QB hadn't thrown a touchdown pass all year. He'd averaged over 2 interceptions a game. And he's facing our secondary. No problem, right? Wrong. It felt like the Steele years, making average players look like Heisman candidates. 68% completion, 0 interceptions, 1 touchdown.
Special Teams -
Possibly more than anyone, you lost the game. And that's really, really saying something. Daniel, if you need to take some time to get healthy, do it. Right now you're hurting us.
Coaches -
- Hays, you're looking like a mistake. This was the game to prove you weren't one, and you blew it.
- Morriss, you're team is undisciplined, your line is not good, and you're players have no fire or heart.
- Lancaster, you're special teams units suck, you're running backs aren't playing much better.
- Kinne, you're linebackers need to make more plays.
- Wnek, you're unit is holding the entire defense back. Injuries or no, this was a team we should have dominated and the defensive line wouldn't let us do that.
- Phillips, if this is how you're coaching Bell, you're farther from the tree than I thought. If it's not, it's time to reach to your next option
Here's the kicker, the team is talented enough to be 4-0. There's only one reason that this team is NOT 4-0, they chose not to prepare in such a way to be undefeated. There's is far too much talent on this team to be playing this poorly.
Colorado hasn't won a game all year and looked so much better than we did today against a Top 10 team, while we played a 1-2 service academy.
Kansas State has only beaten cupcakse and got trounced by a Louisville team missing their starting QB and starting RB, and they looked better than we did tonight.
We have a very good chance of being 1-5 heading into the tough part of the schedule. And it's all because the team chose to believe that they were good enough to play this game without hard work, dedication and focus.
Don't be surprised if there are fewer than 25,000 people at the game next week. You (and I'm talking directly to the team right now) have a LOT to prove to the fans of Baylor Football that you are worth paying attention to.
Saturday, September 23, 2006
No more posts tonight.
In the hopes of keeping this a family-friendly blog, I am going to refrain from any more posts after that last "drive".
I will say that Bell makes me want to puke.
I will say that Bell makes me want to puke.
Rush Defense?
51 yards on 4 attempts now on this drive. We have got to get some stops and get off the field. This is when our lack of depth on the defensive line.
Touchdown Army. You've got to be kidding me. I now know how the Aggies felt last week. And I apologize to them for kidding them about their defense. This is pathetic.
I also feel like throwing up for saying this defense was anywhere near Top 15 caliber. I'll settle at Top 50.
By the way, we're up to 10 penalties for 92 yards. But don't worry, there's plenty of time left, I'm sure we can break 100 yards before the game is over.
Touchdown Army. You've got to be kidding me. I now know how the Aggies felt last week. And I apologize to them for kidding them about their defense. This is pathetic.
I also feel like throwing up for saying this defense was anywhere near Top 15 caliber. I'll settle at Top 50.
By the way, we're up to 10 penalties for 92 yards. But don't worry, there's plenty of time left, I'm sure we can break 100 yards before the game is over.
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