Thursday, September 28, 2006

The Truth About Baylor Football

I want to extend a thanks to JudgeChamber for extending the invitation to discuss Baylor football on this blog. I'll try to keep it real and call it like I see it.

For my first post I want to discuss what I think will be the keys to the game. I think it's funny how some people talk about keys to the game. Usually, the first thing someone spouts off is "turnovers, penalties, line play." The next time someone tells you that, punch them in the face. These things are true in every game. It's not insight, it's stating the obvious. The team should show up to the stadium sometime before 6. See, I can do it too.

So without further delay Here are my keys to the game:

  • Quarterback (yikes!) must have a GREAT game. Notice I didn’t put he who will no longer be named. This sounds like a no-brainer but the stat line needs to read 300+ , 2+ touchdowns if we are going to have a chance. 200-225 and 1 touchdown on 45 attempts will mean a loss. Count on it. Our defense/special teams will probably give up 13-17 so we need points. I don’t see K-State blitzing all that much. They saw that Army could get to the quarterback with the front 4 and surely they saw that our biggest plays have been off screen type plays. Why would they risk bringing linebackers when they can disrupt without them? Also for the love of all that is holy please throw deep once a quarter. People whine about our running game but when the safeties are lining up 8 yards off the ball you just can’t. Making them line up 12 yards off the ball would make all the difference in the world.

  • Terrance Parks in the red zone. I mentioned this before to several people, in our offense when we have 4-5 receivers out there it is like stealing to have him on the inside. The defense can only double team one person (maybe) and it won’t be him. He will be lined up on a linebacker in which case he needs to be running a 6-7 yard out and use his speed to run away from them or if a d-back does cover him he needs to live between the hashes where the defender won’t be able to even see the ball until its too late.

  • On defense, it’s all about the front 7. I don’t even think the secondary will be a factor in this game. If the K-State coaches have an ounce of brain cells between all of them, they will run, run, and run some more on us. Their QB is about as scary as ours, why even give him enough rope to hang himself?

  • We MUST get a two touchdown lead somehow. This puts K-State in “catch up” mode and plays to their weakness and our supposed strength.

I want to expand on this last point. From what I have seen thus far in this season, the only way we win a conference game is for a game to unfold like the OK-State game last year where our opponent self destructs right in front of us. Our team doesn't have the "onions" to actually trade blows with another team. At the first sign of an opponent getting momentum, our guys have been making the "Baylor face" and from there it's all over. Let's hope a spine transplant happened during the week. You know Ron Prince was telling his team all week: "Just stay in the game, hold onto the ball. Baylor is a ticking time bomb that will go off on itself if you just let it. If we are two scores behind or better, they will find a way to give it to us."

For an ender, to the couple who sits in front of me: Learn the rules of the game, just because the other team ran for more than 5 yards does not necessarily mean there was holding. You're annoying as hell when you scream for penalties that even Pac-10 officials could get right not calling.

Welcome The Dixie Fitz

Baylor Sports Unlimited adds yet another writer, The Dixie Fitz.

TDF lands somewhere in between myself and Cynical_Jeff in his views on Baylor sports.

Colorado State Preview

Getting back to a little bit of Basketball, here's the preview of the next opponent on our schedule, Colorado State. We will face CSU in the Pre-season NIT or Tip-Off Classic or whatever it's being called these days. We'll have to beat them to get to Gonzaga in the second round.

Top 3 Returning Scorers:

Jason Smith, F - 16.2ppg
Cory Lewis, G - 10.1ppg
Stuart Creason, C - 7.9ppg

Total Scoring Returning - 41.5ppg (lost 32.5 ppg)

Top 3 Returning Rebounders

Jason Smith, F - 7.3rpg
Stuart Creason, C - 3.8rpg
Cory Lewis, G - 3.6rpg

Total Rebounding Returning - 18.1 rpg (lost 10.6 rpg)

Top 3 Returnings Assists

Cory Lewis, G - 136 (4.53/game)
Jason Smith, F - 70 (2.25/game)
Stuart Creason - 28 (1.04/game)

Total Assists Returning - 276 (8.9/game)


Colorado State lost some very important pieces to their team this year, and it will be interesting to see how they put everything together.

They obviously have a very strong core for their team, as the same three players, across three different positions, are the top 3 leading scorers, rebounders and assist(ers?).

Cory Lewis is a 6' guard who led all MWC guards with 4.53 assists per game, is a former JUCO guard who was playing in his first season at the MWC level.

Jason Smith is CSUs best player and standing 7' tall, he's more of a center than the forward position he's listed at. He'll be a junior coming into this year, but was the MWC Freshman of the Year and an All-MWC Honorable Mention his freshman year as well. He was first-team all MWC last year, averaging 16.2 ppg (on 51.7% shooting), 7.3 rebounds per game, and 2.14 blocks per game.

Stuart Creason is the teams center, and he also stands 7' tall. He only started one game last year, but logged 22 minutes per game in the 27 games he played in. He missed 4 games due to injury. Although not much of a scoring threat (7.9ppg), he does have a presence on the defensive end with 1.41 blocks per game. I'd look for him to have a bigger role on the team this coming year.

Colorado State will have a youth movement similar to Baylors, with 8 of their 15 players on roster being sophomores or freshmen.

Only two of their incoming true freshmen were rated by Rivals, one being a 3* and the other a 2*. While we are aware that the star ratings aren't the end all, be all, for measuring freshmen contributions, it's a good way to start, especially when talking basketball. The 3* player is Jarrel Smith, a 6'7" 185lb small forward, who was ranked #14 in California, but did not make the national list. He was also offered by UC-Santa Barbara and San Diego State, and recruited by OU, Georgia Tech and Illinois.

The 2* player was Jarrel's brother, Jimmy. A 6'5" 185lb guard, Jimmy wasn't as highly recruited as Jarrell, but did get interest from OU, Maryland and Illinois, but didn't receive any offers.

It will be interesting to see how the youth affects the play of the veteran players, especially if the young guards are able to effectively distribute the ball when Lewis is not on the court, or when he is being pressured by Jerrells. If Creason and Smith can't get the ball in their hands, it's going to be difficult for CSU to really get its game going.