Friday, October 27, 2006

My Aggie Manifesto

This game on Saturday is huge. In other news, the sun will be setting in the West this evening. Saturday is much more than beating a division rival (oops!, I mean opponet that we play every year, compete to get recruits with, and located less than 100 miles away), it is a needed step to our overall goal of getting to a bowl game. Technically, I know, we don't necessarily need to win this one to get to 6. I'm just saying that Baylor hasn't put together a complete game yet this year and would you rather need one chance in three or two with only one more game at home (agasinst a ranked opponet)? I thought so.

Many Baylor fans have some kind of deep seeded hatred of all things Aggie. I guess I get more satisfaction out of beating them than I do the other teams we've beaten in the recent past but when I see people posting about wanting to shoot an aggie if he were in a fox hole with them, that's just stupid. Are they arrogant? Yes. Are they delusional? Yes. But if you think we're way ahead on football IQ, fan class, and even football tradition (more on this in a second), you are mistaken. I have many aggie friends. One will be in my wedding in 8 days (Oh my God, Oh my God, Oh my God). In 2004, I saw a "classy" Baylor fan berate a 9 year old wearing an Aggie jersey. You stay classy man. This was also the same guy who sits in front of me and calls for holding every time Baylor doesn't get a sack or gives up more than an 5 yard run. Aggies have their own idiots, I'm just saying be aware that we have plenty too.

Let's talk about those Fighting Texas Aggie faithful. The first thing out of most of thier mouths is something to the effect of 18-0-1. Yep, we were dominated for almost 20 years. Congratulations. Now, if you would, explain how something that happened in 1989 is going to have any bearing on Saturday. Is Bucky Richardson going to come out of the tunnel (Aggie fans don't answer that)? Teams completely turn over their roster every 4-5 years and starters (usually uperclassmen) every 2-3 years. So unless you show me a player on A&M's roster that has been there for more than 2 years and hasn't lost to the lowly Baylor Bears, the series doesn't matter. It's like that board next to the roulette table that shows what the last 15 spins have resulted in. Casinos put that there because they know idiots will bet according to this. The reality is that on every spin, every slot on the wheel has an equal chance of being a winner. You don't get points for past records, facilities, fan-base, or recruiting rankings. You still have to get the ball across the goal line and kick it between the pipes. Aggie football tradition is better than Baylor's. No doubt. But please don't pretend that it is a "storied" program. Baylor hasn't been to a bowl game in almost 12 years but in that same time frame aggie has won a whopping 2 bowl games in 7 tries. I know, I know they also have a national championship. Congratulations on winning one in the leather helmet era. Know who else won during that era? TCU, another national powerhouse and recognized as "storied." So please, you have been slightly better than average except for 2 seasons in the past decade. Being a national powerhouse is about conference championships and winning bowl games, and national championships in an era post-the advent of color tv.

This leads me into the actual game. I've seen A&M twice on TV (Mizzou and OSU). Raise your hand if you think the key to the game is stopping the aggie running attack. Looks like all of you. I like to think that I can be original so let me give it a shot. As much as I think we'll be able to pass it on that defense, I wasn't that impressed with the way they tried to stop OSU's running attack. The only difference between us and OSU is that they utilize the QB as a runner and we don't. I think if we get 80 yards (including 20 yards worth of sacks that Shawn is always good for) on the ground, the defense will have no shot.

On defense, yes we have to stop the run. I think this is a tall order and a more realistic goal would be to take away an aspect of the run. On options, take out the pitch man and make McGee turn it up and then hammer him. If they get in a short yardage situation, Lane is going to get his yards so don't even worry about it. Aggie ran the draw and the iso very well against the Cowboys with Lewis and Goodson. These guys are the ones that make the offense dangerous, not Lane. Stuff these two, and Lane isn't even in the game.

Shawn is going to have to have a big game again obviously. I'll never be confused with being a Bell apologist but it comforts me a little that he has beaten aggie before. We'll see I guess. I'm not confident either way. They have better players, we have a better staff. I really like the way Bradley has schemed for aggie the past two years. We've really taken away the option lately and if we do that on Saturday, that will take out a big part of their offense. We will have to play a complete game this time. They aren't Kansas. It will take the best game we've played so far.

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Genius From the BearMeat Blog

It will take you about 3 seconds to see that BearMeat is an extremely different blog than Baylor Sports Unlimited, but man their latest post (first in a series of three) is just genius.

You definitely want to check this out!

Looking to Texas A&M

This game might be the most difficult to figure out. I guess that's what happens when strength goes against weakness for both teams. Baylor's passing attack against A&Ms porous secondary. Texas A&Ms excellent rushing attack against a Baylor defense that has been struggling mightily against the run in the last 3 games.

It's hard to figure which one is going to overcome the other. Will Baylor come out strong enough to get ahead by 14-17 points by the third quarter to force A&M to throw the ball more? Will A&M wear down our defense with their three-headed monster and tough offensive line? It's a tough call.

And actually I think the answer comes down to something totally unrelated to either of those things: Baylor's offensive line vs. A&Ms defensive line.

If Baylor's OL can keep A&M off of Bells back and give him time to operate, like he had in the fourth quarter last weekend, then I think Baylor will be able to move the ball down the field in a hurry and score some points. But if they are able to get some pressure on Bell and sack him, or hurry his throws and force an INT or two, then we are going to get into trouble.

A&Ms rushing attack burns so much clock that we are going to have to maximize our drives and turn them into points. If we have a three and out, we might not get the ball back for another 6 minutes or so. The good news is that our receivers and running backs, not to mention OL will be rested. The bad news is that our defensive front 6 will not be.

I'll be back later with a more detailed preview. I leave this Thursday for England, so I won't have as much stuff this week as other weeks. I'll try to get some stuff done on the plane over there, and I'll be watching on CSTV so I'll catch the game.

"Keep Chopping Wood"


Shawn Bell: great, great game. I can't help but admit I doubted. I did. But the second you and Shelton completed the first touchdown pass of the fourth quarter, I looked at a friend who was with me at the game and said, "We're going to win this game."

Just Believe.


I know I've given Shawn a very hard time, and this week he just shut my mouth. There was a lot of courage on the field in that last 10 minutes. A lot of courage. Offense and defense, but every pass in that last 10 minute period was fantastic. I don't know what switched the light, but keep it lit. Incredible effort.

I make a vow right now. I choose not to doubt Shawn Bell ever again. I will believe in him, this offense and this team, no matter what.

I'm going to be out of the country, but I have my CSTV All-Access pass working and will be watching the game from England at midnight. I'm looking forward to this offense showing some more of what I saw in the fourth quarter. Playing like that, there aren't many teams that can stay on the field with the Bears.

Bring it home, boys. Just believe. I do.

Sunday, October 22, 2006

What a Game! What an Experience!

Man, what a fantastic, fantastic game. Watching from the alumni side of the stands as everyone streamed down to their cars with ten minutes left, I said to a friend, "I hope we come back and win this game so I can throw it in the faces of everyone that is leaving."

Thank you, team, for providing me with the opportunity.

I was there for Kansas in '02. I was there for Colorado in '03. I was there for A&M in '04. It might be the proximity, but the atmosphere at this game was incredible. Perhaps the best I've ever seen it. People stomping on the bleachers, screaming, "DEFENSE! DEFENSE!" Giving Sic 'em, Bears and yelling at the tops of their lungs. Baylor moms and their daughters who just 6 minutes earlier were discussing last nights Pigskin, standing, jumping, screaming and just plain going crazy with every destiny-filled play.

Today I saw what winning and succeeding can mean to Baylor University. Those last 9 minutes the crowd was as intense and passionate as any at Kyle Field, DKR Stadium or any other field I've ever been to. The only thing that came close at those other stadiums was A&Ms OT win over Tech two years ago, a game I attended with my Aggie wife.

But this one beats 'em all. And it happened on Homecoming.

Sic 'em, Bears.

Friday, October 20, 2006

Keys to the Game

So, what are the key things that Baylor needs to do to beat Kansas?

Play to our level, not our opponents level
As I said in the previous post, we need to play at a high intensity level consistently. Come to play, come to win, and play hard for the entire game.


DON'T FUMBLE KICK RETURNS!
We've had SIX fumbles on kick returns. These are the worst turnovers because we are not only handing the ball back to a team we just got it back from, but we are doing so, usually, 30-40 yards down the field. We've just given them a Hail Mary-type play and put them in our backyard. And we are averaging nearly 1 per game. No wonder we are 3-4. This is going to be a key for the rest of the year, because we can't afford to have a two-possession swing in the next five games.

Attack, Attack, Attack!
We put 320 yards passing on Texas, not because it was a fluke, but rather because we went down the field consistently and in great places. Play-calling and ball delivery was a big improvement. We need to keep those attacking ways up, because while an aspect of this offense is "take what they give you", the philosophy behind it is to attack the defense and make them react to you. We did that against Texas better than we had all year. If we do it against Kansas, maybe 1k yards of offense isn't so unbelieveable.

That's MY ball
Defense, they are going to have your ball sometimes, and it's up to you to get it back. Meier has thrown 11 interceptions so far this year and I'd like to see that number hit 15 before he has to go home. CJ, they are calling you overrated. They are calling you a wind-bag. They are saying you played real bad against Texas. I don't know about you, but that sounds like disrespect to me. Prove 'em all wrong tomorrow. You know it's in you.

Sacks and Penalties and Drops, Oh My
While the passing game was an improvement, we have GOT to cut out the sacks for a huge loss. Texas had 5 sacks for 40 yards. FORTY YARDS!! Aside from the sacks, we had ONE rush for negative 2 yards. We lost more yards on sacks than we did on penalties. Shawn, you looked a lot better throwing the ball, but that spin move of yours to get out of trouble is killing us. Just step up into the pocket and deliver the ball.

Penalties were down this week (only 37 yards), but three of them came on the same drive and effectively killed our energy. Get it cleaned up.

Drops have improved, but we are still dropping easy passes. We need to quit that and if the ball hits the hands, it should be a catch. We do that and this offense is going to get white hot.


I thought about putting "Stop the KU running attack" but with Cornish not at 100% and the fact that if we get up quick, they are going to have to start throwing the ball, I don't think it's going to be a KEY to the game. It's important, but I think these things are more important.

Prediction to come this afternoon.

Time to End the Homecoming Game Blues

Let me first say that TDF had a great post below this one. Very accurate. My favorite line is this one:

But let's be honest here, for Baylor, "beatable" means "not a sure loss."
I think that pretty much sums up the feelings of most Baylor fans. And it might be pretty close to the truth, but I think all 5 remaining games are going to be close enough to be toss-ups. We have a much better shot than "not a sure loss" in each of them. Our road matchups are a crumbling Tech team (that will still be favored against us) and an up-and-down OSU team. At home, we have Kansas, who I think we should beat, A&M who we've played very closely and are giving up nearly 300 yards per game passing in conference, and OU who is suffering some injury and off-the-field problems.

But let's focus on Kansas, since we play them tomorrow.

Kansas kinda reminds me of our 2003 team. We had Rashad Armstrong in the backfield (1k yard rusher), but a questionable line, a questionable QB, and a spotty defense. But are we their Colorado?

I really don't see it. They are on the road and it's not just a trip to Manhatten or Lincoln, it's all the way down in Texas. They are 0-3 and their losses are getting worse, and they are the type of losses to kinda addle your brain. Overtime dogfight lost in the first OT period 39-32, after a big comeback. Leading 18-13 and then a minute later losing the game 21-18. Leading 17-0, and then getting blown out in the second half on the way to a 42-32 loss.

These are the types of losses that start to convince you that you are meant to lose games. You aren't supposed to win the game. They are the types of wins that have you sitting around waiting for something (anything!) to happen that hurts your team, and then you throw in the towel because "here we go again".

I know. I'm a Baylor fan.

The good news for us Baylor fans is that our team has overcome that mentality and so we can take advantage of it happening to Kansas. If we can hold them scoreless in the first quarter (half!?) and get a good lead on them, they will likely start to fold themselves. They've done it over and over again.

And Cornish, their best offensive weapon, isn't 100%. That means we don't have to key on the run as much as we would have, and that means our secondary can focus on making Meier's life even worse than his 11 interceptions already this year have made it. Our defense has shown it can be a pretty good run defense when it wants to. It's held excellent rushing teams to less than 2.5 yards per carry and low rushing totals.

But here's the major concern: Our Baylor teams of the last few years play to the level of their competition.

We come into a game with an idea of how it's going to go, and we play to that level. Against WSU we played a tough game that we should have won (IT WAS A FUMBLE!), but the next week we didn't play nearly as well, with nearly the intensity ("It was only Army...") and we got beat. Are we a better team than Army? No question, but only if we play to OUR potential and not to our conception of what their team's abilities are.

Baylor needs to show the killer instinct that has made the good and great teams what they are. We need to play to our potential, not our opponents. We need to come out and play hard for four quarters.

When Morriss first got here, he talked about throwing a blanket over the scoreboard and playing every possession like the score was 0-0. We need to do that again for a different reason. We aren't getting blown out any more, but WE should be delivering some blowouts. And if not blowouts, at least secure 14-20 point wins.

We can do that if we focus and play our brand of football. And I hope that's what I see tomorrow.

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Show Me

The table is set for the rest of the season. We need 3 out of 5 to be bowl eligible. The dynamics have changed somewhat since the beginning of the season and even since conference play started. Tech and OU all of a sudden look very beatable. But let's be honest here, for Baylor, "beatable" means "not a sure loss." Let's go over the remaining schedule to see what's coming up:

People have already started to leave KU for dead. I think these people are one game too early. You know the Jayhawks are looking at us as "beatable" as well. This is a coach and program that was arguably in worse shape than Baylor not too long ago (Steele's only Big 12 win) but have been bowling since. They will be looking to get well against us. If we do beat them, then I think they roll over for the rest of the season. Don't get me wrong, I see the stats and the common opponets and all of that too. We play a good game and we probably win. But would you put your house on that happening? Would it suprise anyone if we come out shooting ourselves in the foot? Didn't think so. We need to show up, man up, and win this one.

A&M isn't looking as beatable as they did to begin the year. MU was a solid team regardless of who they had played to that point. I think the only reason the Kanas game was close was because aggy is a below average passing team and couldn't exploit KU's most glaring weakness. If we don't get two scores ahead somehow and take the ball out of Lane's hands (I don't think we can stop him), we will be in trouble.

Tech to me is Jekyl/Hyde. We know that Leach's system can work. We know that they haven't been consistent with it this season. We're going to have to do like last year. Hopefully, our offense won't leave the defense for dead after keeping the team in it all game.

I haven't seen anything on OSU. I saw the score and read about the big comeback against Kansas but that's it. I think they are a dangerous team. They have plenty of athletes and are capable of making plays despite Gundy on the sideline. This game being on the road also concerns me.

Everyone is also saying that OU is a possible win now too. I know Peterson is done for the regular season but he didn't play last year against us either. Instead we made Mr. 4th string Jacob Guttierrez look like Walter Payton. Does anyone believe that Bomar was that much better than Paul Thompson? By the time we get to this game, it will be interesting to see if we are playing for something or if OU is for that matter.

First thing's first though. We don't want to have to start imagining scenarios if we lose to the Jayhawks. Having to win 2 out of 4 looks much better than 3 out of 5. People keep saying that the Bears are going to do it. Now is the time to actually show it. Saying you are better is not the same as actually going out there and doing it. Show me.

OSU Coach Spits On KU Player




It's at about the 30 second mark on the video above and you can clearly see the guy in the orange shirt standing over the player and lean over and spit on him.

This is unbelieveable!!

OSU should move quickly and fire this guy. That is completely unacceptable behavior. We will see how the school handles itself in the way they deal with this situation and what type of athletics department they are running up there in Stillwater.

Weekly Press Conference

Baylor football had its weekly press conference leading up to the Kansas game, and there were some very interesting things said.

Guy Morriss believes that the next five games are all winnable and also all loseable. Well, the first thing that pops in my head is, "Duh." But then I think about it. This is a good team, with some solid talent, but we still do have a long way to go before we can even think about sleep-walking through a game. Kansas in particular is a game that we can dominate from wire to wire, but only if we approach it with the same intensity that we did the Texas game.

I think that's key. We've shown the propensity to play to the level of our competition. #5 team in the nation? OK, we'll pass for 300 yards and hold them to their third lowest rushing total of the year. Army, no problem, we'll let you run on us and hang around long enough to beat us. If we don't cut that stuff out, we definitely could lose all five games. If we learn to play with intensity and determination no matter the opponent, we can win out and finish 7-1 in conference. I'd settle for 5-3 and a bowl game, though.

Coach Hays mentioned that he wants to play a bit more physical brand of football. That's good to hear. The problem with the spread offense is that by its very nature, it doesn't develop a toughness along the lines and in the players. Especially if the player buy into the fact that this is a finesse offense. I do like that we are seeing wide receivers blocking down field (although if Zeigler would have finished his block on the last TD against Texas, there wouldn't be any controversy about it).

Nick Moore had this quote:

We really want to show our fans that we are the team that we keep saying we are. We just need to keep working hard and eventually we will get respect."

I like that Moore recognizes that the team isn't quite performing as well as they say they are. They are a 3-4 team. They might be one of the better teams in the Big XII, but they don't play like it all the time. The fact that they realize it and are wanting to prove they are as good as they think/say they are makes me feel better about the Kansas game.


If you'd like to check out the transcript of the entire press conference, you can go here to check it out on the Baylor Official Athletics site.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Pawelek For President? How about All-Big XII then?

Joe is on pace for 100 tackles on the year as a freshman, and I think he could exceed even that number now that he's getting more playing time and every game is more experience.

He's not rotating any more, so that means he has more opportunities. I believe I read he's averaging 9 tackles a game since becoming the starter. That's amazing. He's definitely Freshman All-American material, and a lock for Freshman All-Big XII. The question is: Does he get All-Big XII recognition?

He's 8th in tackles in the Big XII (linebackers), averaging 7.9 per game. But if he continues to average 9 per contest, that number will jump to more than 8/game, which could take him to 5th.

Looking only at conference statistics, Pawelek is 6th on the list, averaging 9.7 per contest.

The main problem is that guys like Rufus Alexander and Bo Ruud are going to get a spot on the list just by having their name being pumped. Both those guys are tied for 20th in tackles/game among linebackers, and 36th overall (Pawelek is 6th on both the overall and linebackers list). They are averaging 3.7 tackles per game LESS than JoePa.

I'd love to see JoePa get 15-18 tackles in the game against Kansas, earned DPOY and get the publicity ball really moving. If he could move up to third or fourth in the Big XII in tackles it'd be hard to leave him off the post-season list (only 1 tackle/game separates him from 3rd).

Some Kansas Tidbits

Kansas is giving up 111 yards on the ground and 281 through the air for the year. When looking at conference only numbers, they JUMP to 348 yards through the air and 151 yards on the ground. That's an astounding 500 yards of offense a game on AVERAGE!! After playing OSU, Texas A&M and Nebraska.

On Baylor's side, we are giving up 212 through the air and 131 on the ground, while in conference only play we are giving up 215 yards through the air and 161 yards on the ground.

The difference between the two defenses, of course, is the turnovers.

Baylor has forced 20 turnovers, while Kansas has only gained 13. Baylor is +1 for the year (even after the -4 game against Texas) and Kansas is tied for last in the Big XII at -5. Our situation should continue to head in the opposite directions this game.

Kansas is coming up fast!

Sorry I haven't gotten the updates flowing, I'm drowning in paper at work. I'll do my very best to get some more info up on Kansas and a bit of an outlook at the game by tonight.

If you haven't already, get your tickets for the game! It's Homecoming, so I expect everyone to be there!

Sunday, October 15, 2006

First Look at Kansas

You know that Shawn Bell is licking his chops looking at what joke-of-a-QB Bobby Reid did to the Kansas defense. 411 yards. Reid had 937 yards for the year, and 12 TDs, before the game. He had 5 TDs against Kansas.

If Bell did the same thing, he'd pass for 600 yards and 8 TDs against Kansas. Who am I to say he can't do it?

Kansas' pass defense ranks 110th in the nation, and with our offense seemingly starting to click, it's time to really put a hurting on someone. Kansas' defense is basically begging us to do it to them. Let's oblige them.

Oh, and Mosley, don't worry. KU gave up 192 yards on the ground, too. You should be able to get yours as well.

Kansas has lost to Toledo, Nebraska, A&M and OSU. Those last two games were at home. KU has beaten NSU (49-18), ULA-Monroe (21-19), and South Florida (13-7).

In conference play, they are averaging 27.3 points per game (the same as Baylor), while giving up a conference-worst 34 points per game. Baylor is giving up 32.3 points per game, but our defense is only allowing 27 points per game. And we've played Texas, and been involved in a triple overtime game.

Kansas has the second-leading rusher (Jon Cornish) who is averaging 109 yards per game, but only has one touchdown on the ground. KU doesn't have any players on the top 10 list for passers in conference, or on the top 10 list for total yardage.

Obviously, with a weak passing attack, they don't have any receiver on the top 10 receivers by yardage per game.

Kansas has the 9th best punter in conference by average punt yardage, with a 41.3 yards per punt average, and their kicker is tied for 4th in conference in scoring with 8 points per game.

Kansas' leading tackler is defensive back Jerome Kemp (sounds like the Steele-era). He is averaging 9 tackles a game. Kansas does have a pair of linebackers that are averging 7.3 tackles per game each.

I'll do a more in-depth look at KU tomorrow, but I thought I'd get this thrown up tonight to give you a glimpse at what we have to look forward to this weekend.

I feel better today

I got some sleep last night and settled down a bit and I think I've recovered from my frustration from last night.

I don't have time right now to do a Top 5, but I wanted to share some reasons I feel better about the game now that I've got some emotional distance from it.

We put 31 (or 24) points on the top scoring defense in the conference. Well, they were until they played us, now they are tied for second. That's more points than we put on them the last 4 years combined. And it's triple what Texas has been allowing on average, and the most points they've allowed all year (or tied for the most if you like the 24 number better).

We "held" Texas to 4.4 yards per carry and 162 yards rushing. After giving up over 275 yards rushing to Colorado, this was a big accomplishment.

We didn't look completely overmatched in this game. There is a big talent disparity in this game, but you couldn't really see it. Our coaches put together a fantastic gameplan, and they've done a good enough job teaching technique that we were able to nullify the talent disadvantage for a large part.

Without the 21 points that were handed to Texas on turnovers, this is an 11-point game, which I think is an accurate representation of how the game was played.

If Baylor can continue to play at this level on offense and defense, there's no reason we can't win out. Really. I don't know if we can, and I wouldn't bet on it, the team has to show me, but aside from the Texas A&M game (I'll be out of the country), I'll be at every home game from here on out cheering my head off. Homecoming next week will tell us a lot about what to expect.

+4, They Win

The bottom line is that you can't give the #6 team in the nation 5 turnovers, including two for touchdowns, and expect to be competitive in the game.

Baylor handed Texas 21 points on a silver platter, and gave them plenty of other scoring chances with turnovers, and that was the difference in the game.

Yes, we gave up 437 yards, but we put up over 340 yards ourselves, and only averaged .4 yards per play fewer than Texas. Without those turnovers, we are much more in this game than we were.

Our defense played well, but not great. They couldn't come up with the big game-changing plays when we really needed them. CJ Wilson drops an interception, Corey Ford gets a penalty that takes away an interception, and that's not counting the TEN 3rd down conversions we allowed (10/15 on the night).

We held Texas to 4.4 yards per carry, the fewest since 2002 (the Mack Brown sympathy game for Steele). We had 6 TFL on a team with the best OL in the nation. But we didn't do enough, not by half.


The offense.

Let me just say that I know Bell is a nice guy. I also know that he just threw for 303 yards and 2 TDs, but being the QB he's going to get the blame, and I think he deserves his fair share.

2 interceptions (1 returned for a touchdown) and 2 fumbles (1 returned for a touchdown) were some of the biggest plays in the game, and they centered on Bell.

I thought Bell showed some very poor signs out there tonight. Ducking out of the way of pressure, not stepping up into the pocket, throwing blind passes, short-hopping passes to the flat. There's a reason that his completion percentage was the lowest in a LONG time (53%). He couldn't complete those short passes to the flats. He was not very accurate at all today.

But I think we are seeing what happens when you do open this offense up a bit. While I don't want to trigger the cries of "MORAL VICTORY!", I do think we need to keep in mind that Texas led the conference in scoring defense, only allowing 10.8 points per game. Baylor tripled that tonight, scoring more points than any other team Texas has played. Take away that last touchdown that was questionable, and we are still tying Ohio State (the #1 team in the nation) for the most points scored on Texas all year. We scored as many points as UTs last three opponents COMBINED.

So we were doing something right.

But we did a lot wrong tonight, too, and when you are looking for an upset and fail, that's what you are going to dwell on. If we'd pulled this one out, then we'd all be talking about the great things, and we wouldn't be worrying so much about the 10 or 12 little things that changed the outcome of the game.

Bottom line: We were picked to get blown out in this game and we fought hard and the only reason we lost this game the way we did was because we did it to ourselves. I'm not saying we wouldn't have lost if we could have those turnovers back, but it sure would have been a heck of a lot closer. A 31-42 game is a lot easier to swallow than what we got, but it EASILY could have been that score.

Let's let this one roll off our backs, take the offensive improvement we saw tonight, and move onto Kansas. THAT is a must-win. As is every other game on our schedule. And after Tech and OUs performance today, every single game on our schedule is a winnable game. This year is FAR from over.

Let's get our three.

Saturday, October 14, 2006

Prediction Time...

This game is impossible to predict in a "safe" way. If I predict a blowout loss and Baylor plays it close, then I'm an idiot. I predict a close game and we get blown out, I'm an idiot. I predict a close game or a blow out and we WIN!? I'm a traitorous idiot.

So, knowing that, this is what I think is going to happen. I think Texas is going to run the ball. Very well. I think they get over 250 yards rushing. I think they likely roll up over 200 yards passing, too. But I think we get some turnovers (2-3) and the offense shows up a little bit better.

Final Score:

Baylor 13
Texas 35

Thursday, October 12, 2006

The Parks Fall-out

So now that Parks is gone, who is going to replace him?

The best bet would be Justin Akers.

Akers is 6-5, 240lbs and is running in the 4.6-4.7 range. He was a Waco Tribune-Herald Top 100 recruit out of high school and caught 26 passes for 462 yards, an average of 17.8 yards per catch, with five touchdowns.

Contrary to a lot of the tight-ends we recruited, there was never a thought of moving Akers in to the offensive line. He was a TE to stay, with the thought that he could stretch the field.

He's not as big as Parks (who aside from the linemen on the team were?), but he's got very good hands, and is athletic for his size. And he's actually a little taller than Parks was.

There is another option and that's moving away from the big inside receiver and putting more speed on the field. This would probably include more sets with Fenty, Sims, Payne and others in that mold on the field.

I think against Texas, I would go with an extra smaller/faster receiver on the field. That would put even more pressure on their linebackers, who are the weakest part of the their defense (which is definitely a statement of relativity).

Fenty has been a huge surprise since buring his redshirt, and Payne has been very productive around the endzone. Sims has been injured, but we know that he's athletic enough to be productive in this offense.

Whatever the move, it will lead to a temporary weakness as we lose a valuable player. But this situation was not something to quibble over and the right move was made. It's just a shame.

Parks Off the Team?

I got word from a guy down in Waco and it has been confirmed by other sources, so it seems to be the case.

I won't go into details, but Parks has apparently been kicked off the team due to some behavior that was completely unacceptable.

It will be interesting to see what happens at the inside receiver position. Akers will have to pick up the slack there.

This is a terrible development, because that kid had a ton of potential and could have been one of the key targets next year as a senior, and he threw it all away.

EDIT:
Update from the Official Site has Parks "suspended indefinitely" from the team.

Gameplan for Texas

I know everyone is hyped about the start of conference and how we are playing Texas for first place in the Big XII South. The Bears do deserve some credit for going to a tough place and took CU's best shot. I had been waiting to see when the team would grow a backbone and they finally stood in there and fought back for the win. Granted, the two wins we have were against possibly the number 11 and 12 teams in the conference, but as far as I'm concerned, we won't care who it was against at the end of the season. This was the kind of game we needed to win other games later on. Hopefully, the guys won't start hanging their heads and making the pooch lip when a couple things go against them in the future.

This week is obviously against Texas. I was actually present the last time Baylor beat the Longhorns, making an unofficial visit to campus. The closest we've come since then was the 98 season in Austin where we lost 30-20. I was also at this game and it was much closer than that. We led for much of the game and the combination of our self-destruction and Ricky Williams was too much. That 98 team lost about 4 conference games much like that one.

I never pretend that losing is good in any form. I don't believe in moral victories. On paper, we will get stomped. Can we win? Anything is possible but some major miracles in succession will have to take place. In the grand scheme of things, no one was counting this one as a win. However, the next two against KU and aTm were considered winnable (now must-wins).

I think the Bears should throw the kitchen sink at them. This serves two purposes: 1-Maybe we catch Texas off guard and we get some cheap scores to keep it close; 2- We force Kansas and Aggie to prepare for that crap. Make them take time out of practice and meetings to show the plays and run them with the scout team taking time away from practicing running up and making the tackle on passes behind the line of scrimmage where Bell throws it. I'll be dissapointed if we don't see double reverse passes, onside kicks, fake punts, etc. What's the worst that could happen? We lose? I think we know from the past 8 seasons that the sun still manages to come up the next day after losing to Texas.

I obviously hope it doesn't, but if it gets out of hand it would be a great opportunity to play guys like Syz, Gettis, Smith, etc. Let them play on national television in front of a big crowd on the road. That will be experience that will help them in the next 2-3 years.

Let's hope it doesn't come to that. I hope to see the Bears come out and compete for 4 quarters. I want to see them do the little things right: take care of the ball, limited penalties, solid tackling. If we do that, I won't care how it ends up on the scoreboard, it will show that the team is improving going into games we need to win to attain our goals.

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

HEX TEX!!

Moment of truth. Game of the Year. SuperBowl.

Yep, it's all here. Baylor takes their first ever 2-0 record in the Big XII, the first time they've been in first place in the division in the second week (I know, pretty pathetic) into Austin, TX.

HEX TEX!!

This is going to be the hardest game we play, and it's going to have to be our best game of the year to pull out a win. We're going to have to play much better on both sides of the ball (and on special teams) to keep this game close.

Are we capable? Yes. But we will have to play over our heads.

I want all you Baylor fans to be thinking bad thoughts about Texas all week long. If you see any UT alumni, give them dirty looks and treat them very badly. They are the enemy.

HEX TEX!!

Top 5

We got a really exciting game against Colorado, but let's try and temper the enthusiasm by remembering that it WAS a triple overtime win over a (now) 0-6 team. It's great to be 2-0 in the Big XII, but we've done so against two of the worst three teams in the Big XII (the other being OSU).

But we DID do some very good things and a win on the road against ANYONE is not something to be flippant about in the Big XII. Really, all we have to do (yeah "all we have to do") is win out at home to get to a bowl game. And we also have a game against OSU on the road that is definitely winnable (though I expect a CU-like dogfight up there).

Now let's look at the Top 5 positive and negative things we did this past weekend.

#5 Negative - Whoever was Spying Jackson
Come on!! The guy is a great athlete, cool, I got that. But the play that could have ended the game is a 4th and 1 and we give up a 19 yard run. I know the penalty at the end was bogus, but the 19-yard run was what killed us.

#5 Positive - Sepulveda/Special Teams Coverage units
10 yards on one kickoff return. 2 50+ yard punts. 44.2 yards NET per punt. Great effort and great job making up for the inconsistency of our offense.

#4 Negative -Defensive Line
Where is our pass rush? OK, the guy is mobile, so maybe we don't get a bunch of sacks, but 276 yards rushing!? We better learn how to defend the run this week or Texas is going to maul us. This is where the defense needs to find themselves. Rhodes and Lamb sound like they are coming on, but they need those seniors to step up and be leaders.

#4 Positive - Offensive Line
Great job blocking for the run and the pass. We gave up two sacks, but paved the way for a 110 yard rushing day and 70% completion in the passing game. And the line gave Bell time to find Shelton on 4th down in a play that extended the game.

#3 Negative - Interceptions
Two interceptions just really killed the possibility of this being a game we had in hand much earlier. The first came on our first drive while trying to answer Colorado's opening scoring drive. The second was even more disturbing since it came at the 4 yard line in the endzone. Why didn't we rush the ball on first down? I don't know, but we really can't, can't, can't throw a pick inside the five yardline.

#3 Positive - Trent Shelton
Clutch, playmaker, leader. This guy has it all. Great catch to extend the game, and four other catches that kept the offense moving.

#2 Negative - Special Teams turnovers
Turning over the ball on the opening kickoff of the second half is a great way to kill any momentum you brought INTO halftime. We've got to cut these turnovers out. Thankfully, Cosby missed this field goal from 36 yards (proving we were destined to win the game) and it didn't hurt us. We do it against Texas and that's a touchdown.

#2 Positive - Paul Mosley
20 carries for 85 yards and two touchdowns. Mosley alone exceeded Colorado's previous rushing yards allowed, and gave the offense the rushing threat that it desperately needed.

#1 Negative - Rush Defense
The defensive line got called out by themselves, but we had a lot of guys throughout the defense with the Roy Williams syndrome (Going for the big hit and missing the tackle). Wrap up, secure the man, and let somebody else knock him silly. Like I said about the defensive line: Our performance in this area won't cut it against Texas.

#1 Positive - Joe Pawelek
You know, I wondered if JoePa was getting too much credit for what he did in this game, even if I gave too much credit on this blog last night. Not that he didn't have a good game, but I wondered if his accomplishments were being blown out of proportion. They weren't. 14 tackles (11 solo), a quarterback hurry, a tackle for a loss, and the game-winning interception. No other player came close to impacting the game the way JoePa did.

Saturday, October 07, 2006

Did we kick the door down?

I'm still pretty gigged about this game and how the team fought back and kept going despite all the things that could have gotten them down. Morriss has long said in those close losses that we just needed to kick the door down one of these games, was this the game that we finally kicked it in?

We took CUs best shot. They are probably the best 0-6 team in history. They are going to win some games this year, and I wouldn't be shocked if they finished 4-1 against the North, if they can hold together after this rough stop.

We were down to a 4th down in overtime and still sucked it up and made a big play. Shawn Bell showed a lot of courage on that play. I salute him for it. I didn't think he necessarily had a great game (5.9 yards per attempt!?), but he made plays when they HAD to be made.

This offense has a LONG way to go, but you can start to see what the potential is. We put together a good drive, with a lot of rushing from Paul Mosley (WHAT A HOSS!), probably the best drive of the year, but then we also had a lot of very poor drives and we left our defense on the field for 32 minutes. That won't fly from here on out.

I think we kicked the door in, I think we've turned a corner. Now we just need to make sure that Texas doesn't kick the door back in our face.

Shall we annoint him a "Samurai"?

I know it's a bit early too even begin the talk of comparing Joe Pawelek and Mike Singletary, but the kid is showing himself to be something really, really special.

14 tackles (11 solo), a QB hurry, and one of the most important turnovers in this year.

And Baylor is heading to Austin next week in a battle for first place in the Big XII South.


Sure it's only the third week of Big XII play, but that remains to be the case (I'm assuming that Tech drops their game to Missouri, not because I think it'll happen, but because I HOPE it will happen).

This is one of the biggest, if not THE biggest, wins in Guy Morriss' career here at Baylor. Heading into Boulder, a very tough place to play, on Colorado's Homecoming, to a team with a LOT to prove, and not only do we pull out the game, but we show incredible determination in doing so. And while the altitude might have had an effect, it didn't show late in the game as the team made big play after big play after big play.

HUGE congratulations to the team. Enjoy this win, and then get ready to go to war. Nothing we've seen up until now will be good enough against Texas in Austin. But if we can finally put together a great game in all facets of our team, there's no reason we can't do something special next weekend.

Colorado Prediction

I think Baylor will struggle to score in this game, but the defense will make the stops when they need to.

Jackson will run all over our defense, but the offense will show us something, some consistency.


My hope: Whitaker or Mosley remember how to run the football.

My wish: Bell passes for 7+ yards per attempt.


My prediction:

Baylor wins a close one in the fourth quarter with a late touchdown:

Baylor - 17
Colorado - 13 (Cosby is a field goal kicking fool)

Friday, October 06, 2006

Kansas State Imploding

After the Baylor game, apparently Coach Ron Prince lost him mind.

During practice on Monday, he apparently demoted starting running back Clayton to third string, suspended a bunch of other player for two days of practice, and they are not certain to even play on Saturday.

One player (a 4* OL recruit) has quit the team after being berated for not practicing through a shoulder injury.

Apparently Prince is taking the tactic of: if practicing didn't lead to a win, perhaps NOT practicing will lead to a win.

To me, he just seems like a Steele-esque coach that goes insane instead of going jogging/drinking carrot juice.

I feel bad for the Kansas State players, especially now that we've beaten them, but I am keenly interested to see how this one develops over the rest of their season. Especially since they'll likely be battling Colorado for the basement of the Big XII North.

Thursday, October 05, 2006

To Burn or Not To Burn?

Sorry I've been gone for a couple days. I got a not so little bug and was down and out, then swamped at work when I got back.

But, Baylor football keeps on going, and we've got a game in a couple days!

One of the big questions for the upcoming game is what to do about Tim Atchison with Jordan Lake out with a broken collarbone.

Let me preface this by saying that I think Tim is going to be a star in the secondary. He's smart, athletic and big. He's going to be a great free safety, as early as next year. He could be good for us this year.

But I wonder if we are, perhaps, too quick to burn his shirt. A redshirt year is a very important development period where a player can learn the position, get bigger, get used to going to classes and being mature about your time-management before having the responsibility of also playing well on Saturdays.

Atchison is good enough right now to back up Crawford. He is, but if we could give him this year to really prepare his body for the Big XII, then I think the next four years he could be very, very good. I think he could be a special player in the secondary.

On the flip side, Atchison could get some valuable experience playing against the Big XII, and since he is already basically prepared to go, maybe he doesn't need the redshirt year as badly as someone else.

If he can get as many snaps as Lake was getting, then I think we should go ahead and play him. But if we are going to play Crawford more, and be scared to use Atchison, then what's the point? I still get frustrated when I think of burning Francis' shirt and then not playing him all that much. Or Zeigler getting 9 catches his true freshman year. Or Baker, Teasley and Sims combining for 22 catches for the year (average of 7 each) last year in their true freshman year. And don't get me started on Gettis/Smith this year.

If you're going to burn the shirt, use the kid. If you can't use him enough, or are going to be too scared to play him, then don't.

Next year I can foresee Lake or Atchison starting at FS, Crawford sliding down to OS in Linquist's spot, and then having Widemon and Davis starting at the corner and Stiggers at the other OS spot. That is a stout, stout secondary, even with the loss of CJ Wilson and Arline. That secondary might be better than this years version. Especially if you consider that the depth will be more talented (Atchison/Lake, Criss, Williams, etc.).

Monday, October 02, 2006

Who is Colorado?

Yeah, they are 0-5, but let's not beat our chests. We are a 2-3 team that dropped 3 games we should have won. Colorado is insanely close to having our record, including a win over a nationally-ranked opponent on the road. They lost two games by a combined 5 points. Our two close calls that could have been wins were 17 points away. Our sole win over a D1 opponent came by a mere 14 points, with some very lucky stops by the defense.

Long story short, we cannot take this game lightly. In fact, we are going into this game as an underdog, CU is favored by 5.5 points over Baylor this weekend.

So what does Colorado bring to the table?

Bernard Jackson, is CUs quarterback and is just above 50% passing, with 486 yards on 84 attempts (5.78yds/attempt). He has thrown 2 interceptions so far this year and is yet to pass for a touchdown this year. Jackson has improved every game in his passing abilities. He's gone from 70 to 190 yards, with incremental improvement each week. That's something that Baylor will have to keep in mind.

While he's still developing in the passing game, he is already dangerous on the ground. Do not underestimate him in that regard. We haven't faced a truly mobile quarterback yet this year, and while we've done well against the option attack, a mobile quarterback in the system that Colorado is running is a different animal.

Jackson has run for 218 yards on 66 carries (3.3 yds/carry), 95 yards behind their leading rusher, Hugh Charles (313 yards). And while he might not have the most rushing yards, he does have three rushing touchdowns to Charles' 0. Charles is averaging over 5 yards per carry, though and should not be ignored. Baylor will have a tough time covering both these areas.

The good news is that despite his rushing ability, and his increasingly successful passing attack, he has thrown 2 interceptions, one in each of the last two games. Baylor's defense has forced more than 3 turnovers a game so far this year, which is tied for first in the nation. One other bright spot in this is that while he is mobile and dangerous on the ground, he has been susceptible to being sacked. He has 15 sacks in the CUs last 4 games, for a loss of 80 yards. For comparison sake, Bell has been sacked 12 times in 5 games.

Colorado's offense as a whole is averaging less than 14 first downs a game, 134 yards on the ground, while only managing 119 yards through the air. Of course, CU has managed 165 yards through the air in the last two games, and as I said before have seen improvement in that area every game. Perhaps the worst facet of Colorado's offense is their 3rd down conversion rate. Colorado has only managed 19 third down conversions in 5 games, and only in 67 opportunities. That's 28.4% folks. Sad, sad, sad.

Colorado's defense hasn't had much success stopping people to this point. They've allowed 320 yards per game, have only forced 9 turnovers in 5 games, and they've been been very welcoming to passing scores in the redzone. They've allowed 13 scores in 18 opportunities in the redzone. 11 of those 13 scores have been touchdowns, and 9 of the 11 touchdowns have been through the air. If there was a game in which Bell and the offense wanted to get their redzone scoring fixed, this would appear to be the one.

As bad as the CU offense is at 3rd down conversions, the CU defense might be doing even less on their end in that area. They are allowing more than 45% success on third down conversions (34-75), which is even worse when you consider that the average "yards-to-go" for those third-down conversions was 8.1 yards. Baylor has been averaging a very healthy 39% conversion rate on their own, which hopefully will mean that we have a really good day on 3rd downs.

Further, Colorado's opponents have also lost another touchdown, brought back due to penalty.

The biggest thing to remember is that Colorado and Baylor are two teams that are going through the growing pains of a new offense under new leadership. The scary part is that we don't know which one is going to start to grow up first. Is it going to be the Bear Raid offense under Bell? Is it going to be Hawkins Boise St. offense going under Jackson? I have a hard time betting against our defense, but in that altitude if the offense doesn't give us enough rest, we are going to be hurting towards the end of the game.

Sunday, October 01, 2006

With My Own Eyes

Was in Waco on Saturday to see the Bears win one. I've been thinking about it all weekend and all I can really say is that we were out "Baylored" on Saturday. Look, we did some things well and made plays when we absolutely had to but overall if you looked at my initial post, I was right on. My main points from the game are as follows:
  • I said we needed a 14 point lead to win. K-State was forced to throw the ball with it's AWFUL pass offense and they couldn't make it work.
  • We were thisclose to having to really get tested. The Wildcats fumbled twice inside the 10 which kept almost sure points off the board. These fumbles combined with the 3 interceptions are the self destrictive traits we need in opponets until we can prove we can stand toe to toe with teams and exchange blows.
  • I agree with JudgeChamber in that Joe Pawelek is really coming along. He was everywhere.
  • The defense did step up and stuff the run. That made Kansas State have to throw more which they showed they could not do with either quarterback.

I want to talk a little bit about Shawn Bell's performance. He was better but cannot play like he did if we are going to win 4 more this season. He did throw the deep ball more which led to a score. However, there are times when he decides he's going to throw it to someone no matter how many people are guarding him. On his interception, I saw that someone had seen the coaches getting on Gettis for not running the right route or something. Even if Gettis had run to the spot it came down, there were still two defensive backs there and the pass was so bad it would have made Quincy Carter cringe.

We will get tested in Colorado. We have yet to play a clean game (no turnovers, less penalties, close a game). As much as we see 0-5 by Colorado, you know that they look at us as very beatable and we are. We have yet to show any consistency on offense. We did not get one first down in the 4th quarter on Saturday. I don't think that will fly no matter who we play from here on out. The Buffs are no doubt seeing us as the cure to their problems. If we don't play better we will be their cure.

I don't mean to trash the team, they played tons better than last week (I think that loss is going to really bite us at the end of the season) but K State really beat themselves and had possibly the worst quarterback situation in the conference, by far. All I'm saying is that we've yet to play a complete game and that's what it's going to take to make this season semi-salvagable.

Let's get it together and beat CU. They are going to be up for the game since they see it as very winnable.

What a Game!

It wasn't a perfect game, which makes the result all the more pleasing in a way.

The defense played great. They played their best game of the year. And they didn't let up the whole game. They made some spectacular plays to keep KSU from scoring, they didn't bog down when the offense stalled or turned the ball over, they played with great intensity. I am so proud of their effort and the results.

The offense did a better job of moving the ball. Shawn Bell threw some deep passes, and even though he only really got a couple "deep" balls to connect, I think his biggest improvement was doing a better job of leading his receivers to allow them yards after catch. He still has a lot of improvement in that area, as far as consistently getting the ball in stride, but he was better than previous games.

And man, that deep ball to Shelton was beautiful.


Some concerns, though:

  • We only had 13 first downs in the game.
  • We averaged less than a yard rushing (18 yards on 19 carries)
  • We averaged less than 6.2 yards per attempt (6.13/attempt)
  • We allowed 13.5 yards per completion, including 17 yards per completion to Freeman
  • Special Teams (missed FG, two lost punt returns)

Some good things:

  • Averaged over 11 yards per completion
  • Only allowed 12 first downs to KSU, including only 5 in the second half
  • Allowed only 2.1 yards per attempt rushing, and 45 yards total
  • Special Teams Punt Coverage (1.7 yards per return! GREAT!)
  • Sepulveda - 9 punts, 52.1 yards per punt; 51.0 net punt average = Ray Guy Award
  • Forced 5 turnovers

I like that Zeigler, Parks and Shelton were the main targets in the offense. I said a few weeks back that while it's nice to spread the ball around (8 players caught passes), we need to get the ball in the hands of our playmakers. Zeigler led the team with 8 catches and Parks had 7 catches. I like that Shelton got the long pass, but I would have liked to see him get a few more catches in the mid-range areas (12-18 yards).

On defense, I liked the fact that we have 6 players with 5 or more tackles. Joe Pawelek is really coming into his own at the linebacker spot and Maurice Linquist has been super-productive from his outside safety spot, especially in the last three games (27 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 FF, 1 INT), and has been the leading tackler in each of those games.

CJ Wilson was thrown on a few times, and while he didn't record an interception, he broke up two passes, and had two tackles. It seems that teams are going to be very selective about throwing on him, which I think is smart. He'll have to work harder to get his interceptions, but he's shutting down part of the field and opening up opportunities for other players like Arline and Crawford.

Teasley has to hold onto the ball. I say give Shelton a chance to return some punts, he's got the speed and the moves to be successful there. We need to do something to stop killing ourselves on the punt return team.

All in all, it was a good game, a good win and a good step into conference play. We need to go up to Colorado and get our third consecutive conference win, and get to .500 on the year and we'll be much closer to a bowl game than we were on Friday. This team can do it, and Colorado is as good a team as Kansas State for getting a healthier record. The defense will need to come up big again, and the offense will have to continue to take steps forward, but the optimism is seeping back in, and if we can go 1-1 or 2-0 in the next two road games, we will have a rocking house for the Homecoming game against Kansas, another very winnable game.