Monday, January 29, 2007

Baylor About to Enter Important Stretch Run

The three big sports at Baylor are entering a very important time in each of their seasons. Football is closing in on Signing Day fast, men's basketball have to pick up some wins with some winnable games up next, and the girls need to keep winning, including the game against NU to solidify their shot at 1st or 2nd in the conference.

Football has had some late struggles, losing some nice recruits in the last few weeks and the coaches need to make a strong push to keep this class together AND to add some important pieces to the class. This class can be the one that takes Baylor a big step forward, or it can be a class that takes Baylor a baby step forward.

The guys have four games coming up that are all winnable. Colorado and Iowa State are a combined 3-10 in conference play. The Iowa State game is on the road, but we beat them last year by 18 points and should have a very good chance to beat them this year. Following those games we have a rematch against OU in Waco and a road trip to Missouri. OU played their heads off in Norman and I don't think they can replicate that performance again. Missouri is tough, especially in Columbia and even more with their pressure defense, but if our guards continue to improve and gel, there's no reason to think we shouldn't be able to handle that pressure enough to get some good transition scores.

This four game stretch will make or break our season.


The women have two big games coming up on the road. Going to Lincoln to face Nebraska is going to be one of the toughest games of the year, and heading out to Lubbock is always tough and the Lady Raiders are really starting to put their team together. Neither game is one Baylor fans should feel comfortable about, but they are both still definitely winnable, and Baylor should probably be favored in both. If Baylor can knock off Nebraska, we should lock up 2nd place, and possibly set up a showdown matchup against OU in Norman for first place.

So, Baylor fans, warm up your prayer benches!

Sunday, January 28, 2007

Baylor Falters Late to Texas

What a game that was. Aaron Bruce and Kevin Rogers definitely came to play and the rest of the team also played a very solid game.

This was probably our best all-aroud game of the year, and it came against one of the most talented teams we'll face this season.

What did this game come down to? I'd say that of all the statistics, the most telling is this one:

Free Throw Attempts:

Baylor - 10
Texas - 33

Huh.


Yes, Baylor did intentionally foul Texas late in the game, but that was 4 fouls. So that's still basically a 3-1 advantage towards Texas. And it's not because Baylor was shooting a ton of 3s. In fact, both Baylor and Texas shot the same number of 3s (26). Baylor hit 9 and Texas hit 10. In fact, Texas took a much higher percentage of their FG attempts from behind the arc than Baylor did. And Baylor had a TON more points in the paint (40-16). Baylor also led in 2nd chance points (16-14) and fast break points (22-6).

Baylor had ONE free throw attempt in the first half, while taking 20 2-pt FGs. Baylor took 9 attempts in the second half. Baylor only missed 2 FTs in the game.

Texas had 8 FT attempts in the first half (and trailed by 6 points), but after (I'm sure) Barnes had a little chat with the refs, Texas was sent to the line TWENTY-FIVE times in the second half. That's more than 2.5 times Baylor's opportunities. Baylor and Texas took exactly the same number of 2-pt FG attempts in the second half.

Now, getting away from the FT argument, AJ Abrams made some terrific shots tonight, and Durant showed why he's one of the best (if not THE best) players in college basketball this year. They both had great games tonight, and were the reason that Texas was able to stay in the game at all.

I'm still not impressed by Augustin, and I think the rest of Texas' players are good players, but not really all that special. Bottom line, unless Texas finds another player of Durant's caliber for next year (and there aren't any players like that) they are going to take a step backward next year.

I think we have a great chance to beat Texas when they come to Waco, and I will definitely be there to see it.

Friday, January 26, 2007

Things should start to return to normal

I have had a crazy last couple of months.

Job search, holidays, etc have kept me busy. And Baylor athletics haven't exactly been inspiring me. It's probably a good thing that I wasn't posting daily updates, as this thing could have spiraled out of control fast.


But let's take a look at what's going on with the different sports.

FOOTBALL:


Signing day is fast approaching and the class is wavering between coming together and falling apart. I think this class will certainly be one of the best classes in recent history, but the loss of Lonnie Edwards stings. I really can't believe the guy would go play for an OL coach that hasn't coached the position since New Hampshire and had a poor stop at La Tech as the HC.

Now Baylor hasn't put a lineman into the NFL in a while, but if Morriss just started coaching the position last year and Jason Smith looks like he is well on his way to the league, and he was fresh off the TE position. I don't think there's any question that Morriss is far more trustworthy when it comes to developing lineman than Bicknell. Let's hope that Morriss can get this across to Lonnie and get him back in the fold. It'd be a mistake to waste all that talent out there in West Texas where nobody cares about you.

The rest of the class looks very promising, though. Rex McDougald and Leon Freeman are already on campus and that's good news for the DLine. John David Weed and Machen are already on campus and that should give us immediate help at QB. I would expect Weed to win the starting job this spring, though Machen has talent and has produced at the D1 level.

There are some serious athletes coming in like Stacy Williams, Larry Rosebud, Romie Blaylock and many more. These guys are going to have no problem stepping into their roles, and probably will do so early.

I'll have a full write-up about the signing class on Signing Day, but there is a lot going on with recruiting right now and it seems like the staff is working very hard on closing out the class right.


MEN'S BASKETBALL:

Well, huh. Been pretty disappointing lately, honestly.

The last two games haven't been pretty at all, and there aren't many valid excuses.

The good news is that this is still a young team, they are still getting better and finding their roles and I think we still have a good shot at 6 wins this year.

Demond Carter is showing that he was very much underrated coming into Baylor, especially as a handler and distributor of the ball. He's sporting a better than 2-1 A/TO average and is scoring 9.4 points per game.

Kevin Rogers is still the surprise of the season, averaging 12.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg, and better than a block per game. If he was a bit more consistent with his scoring, then this team could really take off.

There is no question that the team has been disappointing so far this year, but I think that they will start to come together as the year goes on and we could still be looking at an NIT berth, if they can come together quickly. We need at least 7 wins in conference and a win in the Big XII tournament to get to the NIT, though. I'm not sure if that is doable, but we'll see.

WOMEN'S BASKETBALL:

I was one of the people that thought this was going to be a big down year for the girls. I thought losing Sophia Young was huge and that we were going to be so young that it was going to be difficult to keep up what has become our normal performance. With Bernice Mosby stepping up though, that hasn't been the case at all. With only 3 losses on the season and back into second place in the conference, it looks like the girls are ready to make a lot more noise this year.

The most interesting game of the year will be at Oklahoma in the last regular season game. I think it might be too much to hope that OU might lose two games by then so that it could be a battle for 1st place, but winning that game could go a long way to giving our young girls the confidence to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament.

Another Sweet 16 appearance would be a HUGE accomplishment for this young team. Remember that this team was picked 4th in the Big XII and didn't receive any first place votes. A&M and Texas were picked ahead of Baylor in the polls.

There is still a lot of room for improvement, but with talent like Darrett and Wilson coming on strong in just their freshman year, I think this team has a ton of potential and it will be great to see how it develops over the rest of this season and in the next few years.