Well, that was a rough game. Syracuse pretty much let us have it, didn't they? Man.
Looking back at the last 9 games, we can certainly come to some more solid thoughts:
1) We are seriously struggling from behind the arc.
I know, we have three players shooting better than 40% and five better than 30%, but when we go up against good competition or when we are in a tough situation, it seems like we can't hit the wide open shots we are getting. It might be mental, but this is a serious area of concern, especially since it seems our entire offense is built around the 3-ball.
2) We are not dedicated to being fierce rebounders.
I know we have the athletes, it just doesn't look like we have the motivation. We don't have the players that have the attitude where they are going to get that ball. Or at the very least, the players that DO have that attitude are 6' tall.
Diene, Rogers, and Lomers seem very hesitant and even simply not interested in getting the tough rebounds. And it's showing up when they play teams of their approximate talent level. Having TWO 7' centers SHOULD give us a little bit of an edge in rebounding, or at least balance out the effect of having a three guard set.
Diene is averaging 6.8 rebounds per game, Rogers is averaging 7.0, and Lomers is averaging 2.9. That's 16.7 per game combined. I think we should be expecting Lomers and Diene alone to be combining for AT LEAST that many rebounds. Our guards are averaging less than 5 rebounds per game fewer than our posts... There's something wrong with that.
3) Our post players don't really get a chance
I understand that we are a 3-guard set and that we are putting a premium on our quickness. But we have GOT to put our post players to use. Rogers looks like he's getting better each game on the offensive end, but after he gets hot, the guards will go 4 or 5 possessions in a row where they swing the ball around the arc for 20 seconds and then jack up a three.
And here's the key, I don't really care if it's wide open or not. I know we have good shooters, but we have to force our opponents to at least make an effort at defending the paint. Think of how many wide open three pointers we'd have the chance to take if the defense had two guys glued to the paint? Think of how effective it would be if Rogers was averaging 16-18 ppg and was a FOCUS of the defense?
4) We don't believe in penetration on offense
Jerrells is getting better at this, but we swing the ball around so much, and never take it inside. Getting Fields back will make a big difference in this, but with all the talent we have at guard, we should be able to break people down more often. Watching Kelley on South Carolina ripping through our defense for layups made me shake my head and wonder, "Why can't we do that!? Shoot, why don't we even TRY to do that!?"
I have jumped off the ship or the bandwagon. I still believe that as this team matures (maybe not this year), they are going to be very good. And yes, there are bright silver linings. Rogers IS better than he was last year, so is Dou. Dugat has shown flashes of being incredible and Tweety is gaining confidence.
But this team needs Aaron Bruce to return to freshman form, it needs Curtis Jerrells to return to freshman form, and it needs the coaching staff to force them to be more aggressive. There's a lot of work left to be done and only four non-conference games left to go.
Monday, December 18, 2006
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
The Long Absence is Over
Man, it's been a while.
I'm sorry for the long absence, but I've had a lot of things going on in my personal life lately which has brought me away from my writing here.
So, what's been happening? Mainly, basketball. I've washed my hands of the football season.
Let's talk about what Scott Drew has been doing this year. I won't go game by game, but I'll try to do that from now on. For now, I'll just touch on the individual players and the team as a whole.
Aaron Bruce -
Man, this guy was in a sick shooting slump, but he looked like he busted out of that in a big way against Alcorn State, hitting 6 of 9 three pointers and generally looking like his old confident self. Even with the huge shooting slump, Bruce was able to contribute with tougher defense and leads the team in assists. We'll hope his shooting is back to stay, but even when it's not, Bruce is a great asset to have on the floor.
Curtis Jerrells -
This is another guy that hasn't exactly been lighting it up after a very good freshman year, but he was warming up last night scoring 16 points and he also made it a point to feed Bruce, and racked up 6 assists in the game. I am hoping that Jerrells can get back to driving to the hole more, a role that we don't seem to be filling often enough. Jerrells is great around the basket and it'd be nice to see him driving it.
Henry Dugat -
It really looks like he's coming into his own this year. Averaging 16 points per game, Dugat has kept the team alive with his scoring, especially in the Colorado State game. This guy is such a fantastic athlete that when it truly all comes together, he's going to be even better, but I think we are starting to see what Dugat is capable of, and that's quite a bit.
Demond "Tweety" Carter -
I have to admit that I am a bit surprised with how well Tweety has been playing. He's shown himself to be more of a pure point guard than I thought we would see this early in the year. I didn't think there was any way he'd have enough playing time to earn Baylor a third straight Freshman All-American honor, but with the way he's playing, I might be wrong. I don't know if he'll have the scoring opportunities to make All-American, but he's already had a good impact on the team and I think there's more to come from this young player.
Kevin Rogers -
The third leading scorer on the team, Rogers has shown flashes of being very good, but has also shown the tendency to disappear for stretches. He's averaging 12 points per game and 6.8 rebounds per game, but he has a lot more in him. If he was a little more active around the basket, he'd be able to get a few more put back baskets and a few more offensive rebounds. Rogers is shooting a very, very good percentage on his shots at nearly 62% of his field goals. I hope that we see the guards getting Rogers the ball and Rogers doing more with it when he gets it as we finish out this relatively easy streak of the non-conference leading up to the South Carolina game. Rogers has the potential to have a HUGE impact on the end result of this season.
Tim Bush -
Tim has shown true senior leadership. A guy that many, including myself, had relegated to very few minutes and little impact has shown that he is going to do what it takes to help this team win. He's battling down low for rebounds and baskets, he's hitting over 63% of his 3-pointers, and averaging 8.8 points per game. A true "glue" guy, Bush's willingness to come off the bench and play hard, I think we can look to this guy to help us win games, maybe more than we thought.
Mamadou Diene -
Diene is having a pretty standard year for him: 5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.0 blocks per game. He's still recovering from a badly sprained ankle, and I think we'll see all of those numbers increase, but he's still doing a good job of staying active and doing his best to work hard. He's averaging only 22 minutes, which I think is a good amount for him, and as he more fully recovers from his injury, I think we'll see him playing a few more minutes and being a lot more productive.
Josh Lomers -
What a solid player for a true freshman. Averaging 7 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game, Lomers is proving to be a very good substitute for Diene as he brings a little bit more offense and a more thorough knowledge of the game of basketball. He's still got to improve his endurance (he's got asthma), he's got to improve his strength even more, but this kid is going to be very good in a year or two. He's not the athlete that Dou is (there are very few 7 footers that are), but his understanding of the game is evident and helps him a great deal.
Injuries -
Pat Fields and Penny Thiam have both suffered injuries. Thiam is done for the year with a torn ACL, but showed a great deal of athleticism and a great need for some added strength. The redshirt year should help him a lot in being able to make a difference and contribute. Fields should be back soon and he's going to add a new dimension to the team. Fields is the best at driving the ball to the hoop and drawing contact/fouls. And he does a good job of converting those fouls into points. Getting Fields back will do nothing but make this team better. I can't wait to get him back.
Overall -
We are better than I thought we would be based on one main thing: Bruce and Jerrells hadn't really shown up until last night, but we were 3-1 and played a good Gonzaga team on the road in Spokane very competitively. With Bruce and Jerrells looking like they are getting back to form, I think the team has the chance to take off.
There are plenty of areas we need to improve in. Interior offense HAS to get better. Diene and Lomers have combined for 12 points per game, and that needs to be at LEAST 15+ for this team to seriously think about postseason play. I'd like to see it north of 18 points per game, unless Rogers is going to pick up some of that slack by averaging around 14-16 points per game.
We also need to improve our defense. It hasn't been awful, but it could be a lot better. I'm not sure if it's the young players not playing with a lot of confidence, but whatever it is, we need to firm it up and get the right mindset.
All in all, I think we are looking at a NIT team, with an outside chance of the NCAA, and a decent chance that the team stays home, barring improvement. If I had to put money on it, I'd say we finished in the NIT, but it'll be easier to say as we get into conference play.
Baylor plays Grambling tomorrow night. Be sure to tune in and check out a game that should be an easy win for the Bears.
I'm sorry for the long absence, but I've had a lot of things going on in my personal life lately which has brought me away from my writing here.
So, what's been happening? Mainly, basketball. I've washed my hands of the football season.
Let's talk about what Scott Drew has been doing this year. I won't go game by game, but I'll try to do that from now on. For now, I'll just touch on the individual players and the team as a whole.
Aaron Bruce -
Man, this guy was in a sick shooting slump, but he looked like he busted out of that in a big way against Alcorn State, hitting 6 of 9 three pointers and generally looking like his old confident self. Even with the huge shooting slump, Bruce was able to contribute with tougher defense and leads the team in assists. We'll hope his shooting is back to stay, but even when it's not, Bruce is a great asset to have on the floor.
Curtis Jerrells -
This is another guy that hasn't exactly been lighting it up after a very good freshman year, but he was warming up last night scoring 16 points and he also made it a point to feed Bruce, and racked up 6 assists in the game. I am hoping that Jerrells can get back to driving to the hole more, a role that we don't seem to be filling often enough. Jerrells is great around the basket and it'd be nice to see him driving it.
Henry Dugat -
It really looks like he's coming into his own this year. Averaging 16 points per game, Dugat has kept the team alive with his scoring, especially in the Colorado State game. This guy is such a fantastic athlete that when it truly all comes together, he's going to be even better, but I think we are starting to see what Dugat is capable of, and that's quite a bit.
Demond "Tweety" Carter -
I have to admit that I am a bit surprised with how well Tweety has been playing. He's shown himself to be more of a pure point guard than I thought we would see this early in the year. I didn't think there was any way he'd have enough playing time to earn Baylor a third straight Freshman All-American honor, but with the way he's playing, I might be wrong. I don't know if he'll have the scoring opportunities to make All-American, but he's already had a good impact on the team and I think there's more to come from this young player.
Kevin Rogers -
The third leading scorer on the team, Rogers has shown flashes of being very good, but has also shown the tendency to disappear for stretches. He's averaging 12 points per game and 6.8 rebounds per game, but he has a lot more in him. If he was a little more active around the basket, he'd be able to get a few more put back baskets and a few more offensive rebounds. Rogers is shooting a very, very good percentage on his shots at nearly 62% of his field goals. I hope that we see the guards getting Rogers the ball and Rogers doing more with it when he gets it as we finish out this relatively easy streak of the non-conference leading up to the South Carolina game. Rogers has the potential to have a HUGE impact on the end result of this season.
Tim Bush -
Tim has shown true senior leadership. A guy that many, including myself, had relegated to very few minutes and little impact has shown that he is going to do what it takes to help this team win. He's battling down low for rebounds and baskets, he's hitting over 63% of his 3-pointers, and averaging 8.8 points per game. A true "glue" guy, Bush's willingness to come off the bench and play hard, I think we can look to this guy to help us win games, maybe more than we thought.
Mamadou Diene -
Diene is having a pretty standard year for him: 5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.0 blocks per game. He's still recovering from a badly sprained ankle, and I think we'll see all of those numbers increase, but he's still doing a good job of staying active and doing his best to work hard. He's averaging only 22 minutes, which I think is a good amount for him, and as he more fully recovers from his injury, I think we'll see him playing a few more minutes and being a lot more productive.
Josh Lomers -
What a solid player for a true freshman. Averaging 7 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game, Lomers is proving to be a very good substitute for Diene as he brings a little bit more offense and a more thorough knowledge of the game of basketball. He's still got to improve his endurance (he's got asthma), he's got to improve his strength even more, but this kid is going to be very good in a year or two. He's not the athlete that Dou is (there are very few 7 footers that are), but his understanding of the game is evident and helps him a great deal.
Injuries -
Pat Fields and Penny Thiam have both suffered injuries. Thiam is done for the year with a torn ACL, but showed a great deal of athleticism and a great need for some added strength. The redshirt year should help him a lot in being able to make a difference and contribute. Fields should be back soon and he's going to add a new dimension to the team. Fields is the best at driving the ball to the hoop and drawing contact/fouls. And he does a good job of converting those fouls into points. Getting Fields back will do nothing but make this team better. I can't wait to get him back.
Overall -
We are better than I thought we would be based on one main thing: Bruce and Jerrells hadn't really shown up until last night, but we were 3-1 and played a good Gonzaga team on the road in Spokane very competitively. With Bruce and Jerrells looking like they are getting back to form, I think the team has the chance to take off.
There are plenty of areas we need to improve in. Interior offense HAS to get better. Diene and Lomers have combined for 12 points per game, and that needs to be at LEAST 15+ for this team to seriously think about postseason play. I'd like to see it north of 18 points per game, unless Rogers is going to pick up some of that slack by averaging around 14-16 points per game.
We also need to improve our defense. It hasn't been awful, but it could be a lot better. I'm not sure if it's the young players not playing with a lot of confidence, but whatever it is, we need to firm it up and get the right mindset.
All in all, I think we are looking at a NIT team, with an outside chance of the NCAA, and a decent chance that the team stays home, barring improvement. If I had to put money on it, I'd say we finished in the NIT, but it'll be easier to say as we get into conference play.
Baylor plays Grambling tomorrow night. Be sure to tune in and check out a game that should be an easy win for the Bears.
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Defense! Defense! Defense Hold That Line!
The title is to show how queer Baylor can be and how far we must come to be taken seriously in the college football world. Speaking of defense, let's talk about what we saw this season and peek at what we might see in 2007.
D-Line
Well, let's just say that we're lucky that no offense employed the "wet paper bag" blocking scheme or else we never would have gotten any pass rush or sacks this season. In short, we are small and slow on the line. Our tackles got blown off the ball and our ends were never around the quarterback. On the bright side, Lamb got to play alot and McDonald will be back next season. I think his injury on his first play caused us to go deeper into our "talent" pool than we would have liked. Not that him being in there would have made a huge difference but I think we'd be better to have him out there. We are in desperate need of either a freshman DT that can play right away or a JUCO to come in. We actually need a couple of them.
Linebackers
An unexpected bright spot. Moore, Jones, and JoPaw showed up much more than I thought they would coming into the season. They were hampered somewhat by not having a decent line in front of them but the tackle numbers speak for themselves. My only gripe is that we are slow at this position. Opposing running backs made the corner too many times in my opinion. Quarterbacks were also able to step up in the pocket and run for the first down and then slide just before the linebackers were able to close.
Secondary
Huge dissapointment. I know, I know, not getting pressure on the QB makes the secondary's job difficult. I totally agree. However, I don't even want to think about how many times a quarterback dropped back and hit his first read (before even a reasonable pass rush would have bothered him) for a first down. My favorite was on 3rd and 5 and our corners line up 9 yards off the ball. The recievers run to the line, make the catch, first down. There was also some players who wanted people to believe that they were solid and could play with the best. They were shown to have been out of their league. They didn't tackle well, virtually no interceptions after conference play started, and got gouged against any competent pass schemes.
Overall
The defense either underperformed or expectations were way too high for this group. Many starters were lost from 2005 and I believe those starter's leadership was missed more than the talent. I partially covered the pass rush problem already but to be honest, we've never really had a good line. In the recent pass, we've been at least somewhat effective with the blitz. I don't recall ever really bringing people this season. With as many new starting QB's our opponets lined up this year I would have thought that we would have gone after them more. Maybe we did but never got there. This contributes to my theory that we are very short on speed in this defense. The whole point of running a 4-2-5 is to get more speed on the field and it doesn't look like we have it. I'm not familar with who was redshirted this year and who's coming in next season but we absolutely MUST get bigger up front and faster on the outside or else it will be more of the same next season.
D-Line
Well, let's just say that we're lucky that no offense employed the "wet paper bag" blocking scheme or else we never would have gotten any pass rush or sacks this season. In short, we are small and slow on the line. Our tackles got blown off the ball and our ends were never around the quarterback. On the bright side, Lamb got to play alot and McDonald will be back next season. I think his injury on his first play caused us to go deeper into our "talent" pool than we would have liked. Not that him being in there would have made a huge difference but I think we'd be better to have him out there. We are in desperate need of either a freshman DT that can play right away or a JUCO to come in. We actually need a couple of them.
Linebackers
An unexpected bright spot. Moore, Jones, and JoPaw showed up much more than I thought they would coming into the season. They were hampered somewhat by not having a decent line in front of them but the tackle numbers speak for themselves. My only gripe is that we are slow at this position. Opposing running backs made the corner too many times in my opinion. Quarterbacks were also able to step up in the pocket and run for the first down and then slide just before the linebackers were able to close.
Secondary
Huge dissapointment. I know, I know, not getting pressure on the QB makes the secondary's job difficult. I totally agree. However, I don't even want to think about how many times a quarterback dropped back and hit his first read (before even a reasonable pass rush would have bothered him) for a first down. My favorite was on 3rd and 5 and our corners line up 9 yards off the ball. The recievers run to the line, make the catch, first down. There was also some players who wanted people to believe that they were solid and could play with the best. They were shown to have been out of their league. They didn't tackle well, virtually no interceptions after conference play started, and got gouged against any competent pass schemes.
Overall
The defense either underperformed or expectations were way too high for this group. Many starters were lost from 2005 and I believe those starter's leadership was missed more than the talent. I partially covered the pass rush problem already but to be honest, we've never really had a good line. In the recent pass, we've been at least somewhat effective with the blitz. I don't recall ever really bringing people this season. With as many new starting QB's our opponets lined up this year I would have thought that we would have gone after them more. Maybe we did but never got there. This contributes to my theory that we are very short on speed in this defense. The whole point of running a 4-2-5 is to get more speed on the field and it doesn't look like we have it. I'm not familar with who was redshirted this year and who's coming in next season but we absolutely MUST get bigger up front and faster on the outside or else it will be more of the same next season.
Monday, November 20, 2006
About Baylorfans
I was in Waco on Saturday to asses the damage from what I was led to believe was a nuclear device going off at Floyd Casey Stadium. It must have been North Korean because it wasn't nearly as bad as I thought. What I saw was a team starting a Redshirt QB making his 3rd start get beat by the #16 team in the country. This is going to be pretty random but I'm going to discuss some different areas and positions on the team this year and going forward.
Quarterback
No one could stand Bell less than me. Like I mentioned in my last post, he did improve greatly over the course of the season. As bad as Syzmanski did the past 3 games (and it was awful), this is an offense that our record breaking 5th year senior didn't look competent in until the 5th game. Blake wasn't going to look like Joe Montana in his 5th game but I suspect he would start to improve with more time. I've heard that Beatty is looking good and we've already permanent ink penned GJ Kinne to the savior, err quarterback next season. Assuming GJ starts, one thing we have next year that we didn't have this year is a quarterback that has played in the system against good teams. Many Baylorfans have criticized the overall recruiting but the lack of someone who could take snaps coming off the bench and not lose the game absolutely killed our season.
Running Backs
Did we have running backs this year? The offense switch was an absolute disaster for Paul Mosley. For whatever reason, his number was called on plays that had the running back taking the ball standing still on a draw or moving east-west. I would bet that on plays where Paul got the ball with some momentum between the tackles or even some counter plays he averaged 2 yards better. Brandon Whitaker was a real disapointment this year. This offense should have made him a star. He looked very slow and showed no elusive abiltiy. The best running back I saw was Jacoby Jones. To be fair it was very limited action but he showed the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and actually make someone miss before getting up the field.
Receivers
To be fair, it's almost impossible to judge this years group because of the offense change. After we run this system for another couple of years we'll see how this current group really stacks compared to future teams running this offense. Early in the season our receivers had an epedimic of the drops. This probably cost us either the WSU or the Army game. The beauty of this offense is that great route runners and guys who can make reads excell more than just the best athletes. Running routes was also a problem if you read any coaches conference call transcripts. The loss of Parks, who created a matchup problem for everyone we played, really hurt. He was always there with a first down catch in the middle. I think the talent level goes down with the loss of Shelton and Zeigler but I think the overall group gets better because of improved routes and read recognition next season.
Oline
A mixed bag, but for the most part not very good. To be fair once again, we had two guys starting who were a tight end and a defensive tackle last year and our center was playing on a broken foot for most of the season. The false starts that killed drives the first four games were limited somewhat the rest of the season. Run blocking needs to be a priorty this offseason. Lack of dephth was incredibly evident throughout the season. If the current recruits are as advertised (I'm no expert nor pretend to be), I would guess that one or possibly two of them either crack the starting lineup or are in the rotation. At this point I think even having a rotation will show that we have more depth than last year at this position.
I'll talk about the Defense next time I get a chance. Remember, the schedule is much more condusive to our goals next year and in a new system, the biggest production jump is usually the second year.
Quarterback
No one could stand Bell less than me. Like I mentioned in my last post, he did improve greatly over the course of the season. As bad as Syzmanski did the past 3 games (and it was awful), this is an offense that our record breaking 5th year senior didn't look competent in until the 5th game. Blake wasn't going to look like Joe Montana in his 5th game but I suspect he would start to improve with more time. I've heard that Beatty is looking good and we've already permanent ink penned GJ Kinne to the savior, err quarterback next season. Assuming GJ starts, one thing we have next year that we didn't have this year is a quarterback that has played in the system against good teams. Many Baylorfans have criticized the overall recruiting but the lack of someone who could take snaps coming off the bench and not lose the game absolutely killed our season.
Running Backs
Did we have running backs this year? The offense switch was an absolute disaster for Paul Mosley. For whatever reason, his number was called on plays that had the running back taking the ball standing still on a draw or moving east-west. I would bet that on plays where Paul got the ball with some momentum between the tackles or even some counter plays he averaged 2 yards better. Brandon Whitaker was a real disapointment this year. This offense should have made him a star. He looked very slow and showed no elusive abiltiy. The best running back I saw was Jacoby Jones. To be fair it was very limited action but he showed the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and actually make someone miss before getting up the field.
Receivers
To be fair, it's almost impossible to judge this years group because of the offense change. After we run this system for another couple of years we'll see how this current group really stacks compared to future teams running this offense. Early in the season our receivers had an epedimic of the drops. This probably cost us either the WSU or the Army game. The beauty of this offense is that great route runners and guys who can make reads excell more than just the best athletes. Running routes was also a problem if you read any coaches conference call transcripts. The loss of Parks, who created a matchup problem for everyone we played, really hurt. He was always there with a first down catch in the middle. I think the talent level goes down with the loss of Shelton and Zeigler but I think the overall group gets better because of improved routes and read recognition next season.
Oline
A mixed bag, but for the most part not very good. To be fair once again, we had two guys starting who were a tight end and a defensive tackle last year and our center was playing on a broken foot for most of the season. The false starts that killed drives the first four games were limited somewhat the rest of the season. Run blocking needs to be a priorty this offseason. Lack of dephth was incredibly evident throughout the season. If the current recruits are as advertised (I'm no expert nor pretend to be), I would guess that one or possibly two of them either crack the starting lineup or are in the rotation. At this point I think even having a rotation will show that we have more depth than last year at this position.
I'll talk about the Defense next time I get a chance. Remember, the schedule is much more condusive to our goals next year and in a new system, the biggest production jump is usually the second year.
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
The Real Baylor Team Just Stood Up
As JudgeChamber mentioned before, I was on my honeymoon last week. In an attempt to update my fantasy team and watch a little football on Saturday, I purchased for a hefty fee, a massage for my wife. Kauai, I guess, is in the Pac-10 market so I was stuck watching that conference's games and I saw the Baylor score on the crawl at the bottom of the screen. 42 point loss? At the airport the next day, I called my Dad and he said it wasn't even that close.
After reading all the accounts I can only conclude one thing: This team has no leadership and has no heart. If you recall, I questioned the existince of a backbone as well earlier this season. The Bears had fooled me into thinking they had one for a while. What happens on Saturday may show if the team has another vital organ (male).
Over the course of the season, what started as inconsistency has turned into very consistent: playing without heart, intensity, and smarts. I lay most of this at the feet of the seniors. They talked a good game about how things were different and how they would be the ones that took Baylor to a bowl. Well, if they believed themselves half of what they were saying then Saturday wouldn't have happened. We may have still lost but we would have been in the game. If they believed half of what they said we win 2 out of 3 with TCU, WSU, Army and are now fighting for a better bowl. I said weeks ago that the Army game especially would bite us. Nothing to play for with one game to go, just like last year.
If you're that good, stop WSU on the last drive. If you're that good, don't let Army of all teams push you around. If you're that good, show up to a must win game in conference play. Some people blame the coaching. They are partially to blame but the guys should have showed up just because of what the game meant, not because of how they were prepared during the week. Mickey Mouse could have been coaching all week and the guys should have played better despite him.
Morriss' main flaw in this game happend before the season started. I was never a Shawn Bell fan (although I will give him credit for getting better each week this season) but we had nobody we could really count on if he went down (which he obviously did). A JUCO should have been brought in for an insurance policy this season.
The world has ended on Baylorfans even though technically this is the best we've ever done in Big 12 conference play. To bring everyone back to earth let's review some good things that have happened even in the last month. 1) Playing a meaningful game in November. We did last year as well. If you remember, it took 2 years to make the jump from 3 wins to 5 wins. Hopefully this is our last year at this plateau (winning some games, losing close ones). 2) We will have a known quantity at QB next season. Not saying Sysmanski will be the starter, but at least we now have an idea of what he's capable of. I would also expect him to be light years better just from being in the system another spring and having actual game experience. So even if the latest OLAS, Kinne, is the starter, we have someone who won't freak out about having to go in.
On top of this, it is my understanding that our current group of recruits is the best Baylor has had in many years. I hope they are good enough to start as freshmen or at least contribute heavily. We need guys playing who know how to win, haven't been infected with losing at Baylor and won't know they are supposed to lose.
Finally, I hope I'm wrong about the guys I've just ripped but that's just how I see it. I hope to anything they find a way to win on Saturday (assuming Morriss even plays the upperclassmen). If they do win, it would fulfil a a theory I've had about this team. They only play well when there's no pressure. They sure did it last year in the final game. This group of seniors has played with and beaten a good caliber team who was playing well at the time) 3 times (CU, ISU, TAMU). Everyone else they've beaten was either sorry, Division II, or really down. Even the great comeback to KU was mired a little by the way the Jayhawks had made a habbit of giving up leads. We only played better when the game was seemingly lost. When we started coming back, KU folded for us. When was the last time we played a bowl caliber team back and forth and won or beat them outright? Most of our conference wins have been a case of the other teams collapsing.
I don't want to set Saturday up that if they lose then I'm right about having no heart, if they win I'm right about them playing well when there's no pressure. I'm not hedging my bet and you won't see me giving you an "I told you so" next week. I'll just look at the season as a whole and tell it like I saw it. Until then, see you Saturday.
After reading all the accounts I can only conclude one thing: This team has no leadership and has no heart. If you recall, I questioned the existince of a backbone as well earlier this season. The Bears had fooled me into thinking they had one for a while. What happens on Saturday may show if the team has another vital organ (male).
Over the course of the season, what started as inconsistency has turned into very consistent: playing without heart, intensity, and smarts. I lay most of this at the feet of the seniors. They talked a good game about how things were different and how they would be the ones that took Baylor to a bowl. Well, if they believed themselves half of what they were saying then Saturday wouldn't have happened. We may have still lost but we would have been in the game. If they believed half of what they said we win 2 out of 3 with TCU, WSU, Army and are now fighting for a better bowl. I said weeks ago that the Army game especially would bite us. Nothing to play for with one game to go, just like last year.
If you're that good, stop WSU on the last drive. If you're that good, don't let Army of all teams push you around. If you're that good, show up to a must win game in conference play. Some people blame the coaching. They are partially to blame but the guys should have showed up just because of what the game meant, not because of how they were prepared during the week. Mickey Mouse could have been coaching all week and the guys should have played better despite him.
Morriss' main flaw in this game happend before the season started. I was never a Shawn Bell fan (although I will give him credit for getting better each week this season) but we had nobody we could really count on if he went down (which he obviously did). A JUCO should have been brought in for an insurance policy this season.
The world has ended on Baylorfans even though technically this is the best we've ever done in Big 12 conference play. To bring everyone back to earth let's review some good things that have happened even in the last month. 1) Playing a meaningful game in November. We did last year as well. If you remember, it took 2 years to make the jump from 3 wins to 5 wins. Hopefully this is our last year at this plateau (winning some games, losing close ones). 2) We will have a known quantity at QB next season. Not saying Sysmanski will be the starter, but at least we now have an idea of what he's capable of. I would also expect him to be light years better just from being in the system another spring and having actual game experience. So even if the latest OLAS, Kinne, is the starter, we have someone who won't freak out about having to go in.
On top of this, it is my understanding that our current group of recruits is the best Baylor has had in many years. I hope they are good enough to start as freshmen or at least contribute heavily. We need guys playing who know how to win, haven't been infected with losing at Baylor and won't know they are supposed to lose.
Finally, I hope I'm wrong about the guys I've just ripped but that's just how I see it. I hope to anything they find a way to win on Saturday (assuming Morriss even plays the upperclassmen). If they do win, it would fulfil a a theory I've had about this team. They only play well when there's no pressure. They sure did it last year in the final game. This group of seniors has played with and beaten a good caliber team who was playing well at the time) 3 times (CU, ISU, TAMU). Everyone else they've beaten was either sorry, Division II, or really down. Even the great comeback to KU was mired a little by the way the Jayhawks had made a habbit of giving up leads. We only played better when the game was seemingly lost. When we started coming back, KU folded for us. When was the last time we played a bowl caliber team back and forth and won or beat them outright? Most of our conference wins have been a case of the other teams collapsing.
I don't want to set Saturday up that if they lose then I'm right about having no heart, if they win I'm right about them playing well when there's no pressure. I'm not hedging my bet and you won't see me giving you an "I told you so" next week. I'll just look at the season as a whole and tell it like I saw it. Until then, see you Saturday.
Saturday, November 11, 2006
Monday, November 06, 2006
TheDixieFitz
TDF will be out this week as he got married on Saturday. Congratulations to him, as he married FAR, FAR, FAR above his head. And I'm not joking in the least. FAR. FAR FAR FAR.
Basketball season is five days away and I haven't finished my non-conference preview. I'll have to get cracking, so get ready for a run of updates the likes of which have never been seen.
Basketball season is five days away and I haven't finished my non-conference preview. I'll have to get cracking, so get ready for a run of updates the likes of which have never been seen.
It's been a long 10 days
Well, in the last 10 days, a lot of air has been sucked out of the Baylor football program.
Lost a close game to A&M, lost Shawn Bell for the year, threw Blake into the fire, lost a blow out game to Texas Tech.
Tough 10 days.
I am still getting over a bad case of the flu, so I really don't have the strength to get into the heavy details of the games, but the bottom line is that we played well enough to win the A&M game, aside from three or four key plays that we literally let fall through our fingers. Blake played very well in the Tech game, especially considering it was his first real action, but the game as a whole was pretty pathetic.
Defense, now YOU owe the OFFENSE an apology.
We've got two games left this year, and the next one against OSU we're already 16 point dogs. I think that might be a little much, but we certainly haven't earned any respect in the last 4 games, especially on defense.
Maybe the football team is ready for basketball season? Another game like the one we had against Tech and I know I will be.
Lost a close game to A&M, lost Shawn Bell for the year, threw Blake into the fire, lost a blow out game to Texas Tech.
Tough 10 days.
I am still getting over a bad case of the flu, so I really don't have the strength to get into the heavy details of the games, but the bottom line is that we played well enough to win the A&M game, aside from three or four key plays that we literally let fall through our fingers. Blake played very well in the Tech game, especially considering it was his first real action, but the game as a whole was pretty pathetic.
Defense, now YOU owe the OFFENSE an apology.
We've got two games left this year, and the next one against OSU we're already 16 point dogs. I think that might be a little much, but we certainly haven't earned any respect in the last 4 games, especially on defense.
Maybe the football team is ready for basketball season? Another game like the one we had against Tech and I know I will be.
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
Sorry for the delay
I got back in country on Monday and on the way back it seems I picked up the flu. I'll do my best to get some stuff up this week.
Friday, October 27, 2006
My Aggie Manifesto
This game on Saturday is huge. In other news, the sun will be setting in the West this evening. Saturday is much more than beating a division rival (oops!, I mean opponet that we play every year, compete to get recruits with, and located less than 100 miles away), it is a needed step to our overall goal of getting to a bowl game. Technically, I know, we don't necessarily need to win this one to get to 6. I'm just saying that Baylor hasn't put together a complete game yet this year and would you rather need one chance in three or two with only one more game at home (agasinst a ranked opponet)? I thought so.
Many Baylor fans have some kind of deep seeded hatred of all things Aggie. I guess I get more satisfaction out of beating them than I do the other teams we've beaten in the recent past but when I see people posting about wanting to shoot an aggie if he were in a fox hole with them, that's just stupid. Are they arrogant? Yes. Are they delusional? Yes. But if you think we're way ahead on football IQ, fan class, and even football tradition (more on this in a second), you are mistaken. I have many aggie friends. One will be in my wedding in 8 days (Oh my God, Oh my God, Oh my God). In 2004, I saw a "classy" Baylor fan berate a 9 year old wearing an Aggie jersey. You stay classy man. This was also the same guy who sits in front of me and calls for holding every time Baylor doesn't get a sack or gives up more than an 5 yard run. Aggies have their own idiots, I'm just saying be aware that we have plenty too.
Let's talk about those Fighting Texas Aggie faithful. The first thing out of most of thier mouths is something to the effect of 18-0-1. Yep, we were dominated for almost 20 years. Congratulations. Now, if you would, explain how something that happened in 1989 is going to have any bearing on Saturday. Is Bucky Richardson going to come out of the tunnel (Aggie fans don't answer that)? Teams completely turn over their roster every 4-5 years and starters (usually uperclassmen) every 2-3 years. So unless you show me a player on A&M's roster that has been there for more than 2 years and hasn't lost to the lowly Baylor Bears, the series doesn't matter. It's like that board next to the roulette table that shows what the last 15 spins have resulted in. Casinos put that there because they know idiots will bet according to this. The reality is that on every spin, every slot on the wheel has an equal chance of being a winner. You don't get points for past records, facilities, fan-base, or recruiting rankings. You still have to get the ball across the goal line and kick it between the pipes. Aggie football tradition is better than Baylor's. No doubt. But please don't pretend that it is a "storied" program. Baylor hasn't been to a bowl game in almost 12 years but in that same time frame aggie has won a whopping 2 bowl games in 7 tries. I know, I know they also have a national championship. Congratulations on winning one in the leather helmet era. Know who else won during that era? TCU, another national powerhouse and recognized as "storied." So please, you have been slightly better than average except for 2 seasons in the past decade. Being a national powerhouse is about conference championships and winning bowl games, and national championships in an era post-the advent of color tv.
This leads me into the actual game. I've seen A&M twice on TV (Mizzou and OSU). Raise your hand if you think the key to the game is stopping the aggie running attack. Looks like all of you. I like to think that I can be original so let me give it a shot. As much as I think we'll be able to pass it on that defense, I wasn't that impressed with the way they tried to stop OSU's running attack. The only difference between us and OSU is that they utilize the QB as a runner and we don't. I think if we get 80 yards (including 20 yards worth of sacks that Shawn is always good for) on the ground, the defense will have no shot.
On defense, yes we have to stop the run. I think this is a tall order and a more realistic goal would be to take away an aspect of the run. On options, take out the pitch man and make McGee turn it up and then hammer him. If they get in a short yardage situation, Lane is going to get his yards so don't even worry about it. Aggie ran the draw and the iso very well against the Cowboys with Lewis and Goodson. These guys are the ones that make the offense dangerous, not Lane. Stuff these two, and Lane isn't even in the game.
Shawn is going to have to have a big game again obviously. I'll never be confused with being a Bell apologist but it comforts me a little that he has beaten aggie before. We'll see I guess. I'm not confident either way. They have better players, we have a better staff. I really like the way Bradley has schemed for aggie the past two years. We've really taken away the option lately and if we do that on Saturday, that will take out a big part of their offense. We will have to play a complete game this time. They aren't Kansas. It will take the best game we've played so far.
Many Baylor fans have some kind of deep seeded hatred of all things Aggie. I guess I get more satisfaction out of beating them than I do the other teams we've beaten in the recent past but when I see people posting about wanting to shoot an aggie if he were in a fox hole with them, that's just stupid. Are they arrogant? Yes. Are they delusional? Yes. But if you think we're way ahead on football IQ, fan class, and even football tradition (more on this in a second), you are mistaken. I have many aggie friends. One will be in my wedding in 8 days (Oh my God, Oh my God, Oh my God). In 2004, I saw a "classy" Baylor fan berate a 9 year old wearing an Aggie jersey. You stay classy man. This was also the same guy who sits in front of me and calls for holding every time Baylor doesn't get a sack or gives up more than an 5 yard run. Aggies have their own idiots, I'm just saying be aware that we have plenty too.
Let's talk about those Fighting Texas Aggie faithful. The first thing out of most of thier mouths is something to the effect of 18-0-1. Yep, we were dominated for almost 20 years. Congratulations. Now, if you would, explain how something that happened in 1989 is going to have any bearing on Saturday. Is Bucky Richardson going to come out of the tunnel (Aggie fans don't answer that)? Teams completely turn over their roster every 4-5 years and starters (usually uperclassmen) every 2-3 years. So unless you show me a player on A&M's roster that has been there for more than 2 years and hasn't lost to the lowly Baylor Bears, the series doesn't matter. It's like that board next to the roulette table that shows what the last 15 spins have resulted in. Casinos put that there because they know idiots will bet according to this. The reality is that on every spin, every slot on the wheel has an equal chance of being a winner. You don't get points for past records, facilities, fan-base, or recruiting rankings. You still have to get the ball across the goal line and kick it between the pipes. Aggie football tradition is better than Baylor's. No doubt. But please don't pretend that it is a "storied" program. Baylor hasn't been to a bowl game in almost 12 years but in that same time frame aggie has won a whopping 2 bowl games in 7 tries. I know, I know they also have a national championship. Congratulations on winning one in the leather helmet era. Know who else won during that era? TCU, another national powerhouse and recognized as "storied." So please, you have been slightly better than average except for 2 seasons in the past decade. Being a national powerhouse is about conference championships and winning bowl games, and national championships in an era post-the advent of color tv.
This leads me into the actual game. I've seen A&M twice on TV (Mizzou and OSU). Raise your hand if you think the key to the game is stopping the aggie running attack. Looks like all of you. I like to think that I can be original so let me give it a shot. As much as I think we'll be able to pass it on that defense, I wasn't that impressed with the way they tried to stop OSU's running attack. The only difference between us and OSU is that they utilize the QB as a runner and we don't. I think if we get 80 yards (including 20 yards worth of sacks that Shawn is always good for) on the ground, the defense will have no shot.
On defense, yes we have to stop the run. I think this is a tall order and a more realistic goal would be to take away an aspect of the run. On options, take out the pitch man and make McGee turn it up and then hammer him. If they get in a short yardage situation, Lane is going to get his yards so don't even worry about it. Aggie ran the draw and the iso very well against the Cowboys with Lewis and Goodson. These guys are the ones that make the offense dangerous, not Lane. Stuff these two, and Lane isn't even in the game.
Shawn is going to have to have a big game again obviously. I'll never be confused with being a Bell apologist but it comforts me a little that he has beaten aggie before. We'll see I guess. I'm not confident either way. They have better players, we have a better staff. I really like the way Bradley has schemed for aggie the past two years. We've really taken away the option lately and if we do that on Saturday, that will take out a big part of their offense. We will have to play a complete game this time. They aren't Kansas. It will take the best game we've played so far.
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
Genius From the BearMeat Blog
It will take you about 3 seconds to see that BearMeat is an extremely different blog than Baylor Sports Unlimited, but man their latest post (first in a series of three) is just genius.
You definitely want to check this out!
You definitely want to check this out!
Looking to Texas A&M
This game might be the most difficult to figure out. I guess that's what happens when strength goes against weakness for both teams. Baylor's passing attack against A&Ms porous secondary. Texas A&Ms excellent rushing attack against a Baylor defense that has been struggling mightily against the run in the last 3 games.
It's hard to figure which one is going to overcome the other. Will Baylor come out strong enough to get ahead by 14-17 points by the third quarter to force A&M to throw the ball more? Will A&M wear down our defense with their three-headed monster and tough offensive line? It's a tough call.
And actually I think the answer comes down to something totally unrelated to either of those things: Baylor's offensive line vs. A&Ms defensive line.
If Baylor's OL can keep A&M off of Bells back and give him time to operate, like he had in the fourth quarter last weekend, then I think Baylor will be able to move the ball down the field in a hurry and score some points. But if they are able to get some pressure on Bell and sack him, or hurry his throws and force an INT or two, then we are going to get into trouble.
A&Ms rushing attack burns so much clock that we are going to have to maximize our drives and turn them into points. If we have a three and out, we might not get the ball back for another 6 minutes or so. The good news is that our receivers and running backs, not to mention OL will be rested. The bad news is that our defensive front 6 will not be.
I'll be back later with a more detailed preview. I leave this Thursday for England, so I won't have as much stuff this week as other weeks. I'll try to get some stuff done on the plane over there, and I'll be watching on CSTV so I'll catch the game.
It's hard to figure which one is going to overcome the other. Will Baylor come out strong enough to get ahead by 14-17 points by the third quarter to force A&M to throw the ball more? Will A&M wear down our defense with their three-headed monster and tough offensive line? It's a tough call.
And actually I think the answer comes down to something totally unrelated to either of those things: Baylor's offensive line vs. A&Ms defensive line.
If Baylor's OL can keep A&M off of Bells back and give him time to operate, like he had in the fourth quarter last weekend, then I think Baylor will be able to move the ball down the field in a hurry and score some points. But if they are able to get some pressure on Bell and sack him, or hurry his throws and force an INT or two, then we are going to get into trouble.
A&Ms rushing attack burns so much clock that we are going to have to maximize our drives and turn them into points. If we have a three and out, we might not get the ball back for another 6 minutes or so. The good news is that our receivers and running backs, not to mention OL will be rested. The bad news is that our defensive front 6 will not be.
I'll be back later with a more detailed preview. I leave this Thursday for England, so I won't have as much stuff this week as other weeks. I'll try to get some stuff done on the plane over there, and I'll be watching on CSTV so I'll catch the game.
"Keep Chopping Wood"
Shawn Bell: great, great game. I can't help but admit I doubted. I did. But the second you and Shelton completed the first touchdown pass of the fourth quarter, I looked at a friend who was with me at the game and said, "We're going to win this game."
Just Believe.
I know I've given Shawn a very hard time, and this week he just shut my mouth. There was a lot of courage on the field in that last 10 minutes. A lot of courage. Offense and defense, but every pass in that last 10 minute period was fantastic. I don't know what switched the light, but keep it lit. Incredible effort.
I make a vow right now. I choose not to doubt Shawn Bell ever again. I will believe in him, this offense and this team, no matter what.
I'm going to be out of the country, but I have my CSTV All-Access pass working and will be watching the game from England at midnight. I'm looking forward to this offense showing some more of what I saw in the fourth quarter. Playing like that, there aren't many teams that can stay on the field with the Bears.
Bring it home, boys. Just believe. I do.
Sunday, October 22, 2006
What a Game! What an Experience!
Man, what a fantastic, fantastic game. Watching from the alumni side of the stands as everyone streamed down to their cars with ten minutes left, I said to a friend, "I hope we come back and win this game so I can throw it in the faces of everyone that is leaving."
Thank you, team, for providing me with the opportunity.
I was there for Kansas in '02. I was there for Colorado in '03. I was there for A&M in '04. It might be the proximity, but the atmosphere at this game was incredible. Perhaps the best I've ever seen it. People stomping on the bleachers, screaming, "DEFENSE! DEFENSE!" Giving Sic 'em, Bears and yelling at the tops of their lungs. Baylor moms and their daughters who just 6 minutes earlier were discussing last nights Pigskin, standing, jumping, screaming and just plain going crazy with every destiny-filled play.
Today I saw what winning and succeeding can mean to Baylor University. Those last 9 minutes the crowd was as intense and passionate as any at Kyle Field, DKR Stadium or any other field I've ever been to. The only thing that came close at those other stadiums was A&Ms OT win over Tech two years ago, a game I attended with my Aggie wife.
But this one beats 'em all. And it happened on Homecoming.
Sic 'em, Bears.
Thank you, team, for providing me with the opportunity.
I was there for Kansas in '02. I was there for Colorado in '03. I was there for A&M in '04. It might be the proximity, but the atmosphere at this game was incredible. Perhaps the best I've ever seen it. People stomping on the bleachers, screaming, "DEFENSE! DEFENSE!" Giving Sic 'em, Bears and yelling at the tops of their lungs. Baylor moms and their daughters who just 6 minutes earlier were discussing last nights Pigskin, standing, jumping, screaming and just plain going crazy with every destiny-filled play.
Today I saw what winning and succeeding can mean to Baylor University. Those last 9 minutes the crowd was as intense and passionate as any at Kyle Field, DKR Stadium or any other field I've ever been to. The only thing that came close at those other stadiums was A&Ms OT win over Tech two years ago, a game I attended with my Aggie wife.
But this one beats 'em all. And it happened on Homecoming.
Sic 'em, Bears.
Friday, October 20, 2006
Keys to the Game
So, what are the key things that Baylor needs to do to beat Kansas?
Play to our level, not our opponents level
As I said in the previous post, we need to play at a high intensity level consistently. Come to play, come to win, and play hard for the entire game.
DON'T FUMBLE KICK RETURNS!
We've had SIX fumbles on kick returns. These are the worst turnovers because we are not only handing the ball back to a team we just got it back from, but we are doing so, usually, 30-40 yards down the field. We've just given them a Hail Mary-type play and put them in our backyard. And we are averaging nearly 1 per game. No wonder we are 3-4. This is going to be a key for the rest of the year, because we can't afford to have a two-possession swing in the next five games.
Attack, Attack, Attack!
We put 320 yards passing on Texas, not because it was a fluke, but rather because we went down the field consistently and in great places. Play-calling and ball delivery was a big improvement. We need to keep those attacking ways up, because while an aspect of this offense is "take what they give you", the philosophy behind it is to attack the defense and make them react to you. We did that against Texas better than we had all year. If we do it against Kansas, maybe 1k yards of offense isn't so unbelieveable.
That's MY ball
Defense, they are going to have your ball sometimes, and it's up to you to get it back. Meier has thrown 11 interceptions so far this year and I'd like to see that number hit 15 before he has to go home. CJ, they are calling you overrated. They are calling you a wind-bag. They are saying you played real bad against Texas. I don't know about you, but that sounds like disrespect to me. Prove 'em all wrong tomorrow. You know it's in you.
Sacks and Penalties and Drops, Oh My
While the passing game was an improvement, we have GOT to cut out the sacks for a huge loss. Texas had 5 sacks for 40 yards. FORTY YARDS!! Aside from the sacks, we had ONE rush for negative 2 yards. We lost more yards on sacks than we did on penalties. Shawn, you looked a lot better throwing the ball, but that spin move of yours to get out of trouble is killing us. Just step up into the pocket and deliver the ball.
Penalties were down this week (only 37 yards), but three of them came on the same drive and effectively killed our energy. Get it cleaned up.
Drops have improved, but we are still dropping easy passes. We need to quit that and if the ball hits the hands, it should be a catch. We do that and this offense is going to get white hot.
I thought about putting "Stop the KU running attack" but with Cornish not at 100% and the fact that if we get up quick, they are going to have to start throwing the ball, I don't think it's going to be a KEY to the game. It's important, but I think these things are more important.
Prediction to come this afternoon.
Play to our level, not our opponents level
As I said in the previous post, we need to play at a high intensity level consistently. Come to play, come to win, and play hard for the entire game.
DON'T FUMBLE KICK RETURNS!
We've had SIX fumbles on kick returns. These are the worst turnovers because we are not only handing the ball back to a team we just got it back from, but we are doing so, usually, 30-40 yards down the field. We've just given them a Hail Mary-type play and put them in our backyard. And we are averaging nearly 1 per game. No wonder we are 3-4. This is going to be a key for the rest of the year, because we can't afford to have a two-possession swing in the next five games.
Attack, Attack, Attack!
We put 320 yards passing on Texas, not because it was a fluke, but rather because we went down the field consistently and in great places. Play-calling and ball delivery was a big improvement. We need to keep those attacking ways up, because while an aspect of this offense is "take what they give you", the philosophy behind it is to attack the defense and make them react to you. We did that against Texas better than we had all year. If we do it against Kansas, maybe 1k yards of offense isn't so unbelieveable.
That's MY ball
Defense, they are going to have your ball sometimes, and it's up to you to get it back. Meier has thrown 11 interceptions so far this year and I'd like to see that number hit 15 before he has to go home. CJ, they are calling you overrated. They are calling you a wind-bag. They are saying you played real bad against Texas. I don't know about you, but that sounds like disrespect to me. Prove 'em all wrong tomorrow. You know it's in you.
Sacks and Penalties and Drops, Oh My
While the passing game was an improvement, we have GOT to cut out the sacks for a huge loss. Texas had 5 sacks for 40 yards. FORTY YARDS!! Aside from the sacks, we had ONE rush for negative 2 yards. We lost more yards on sacks than we did on penalties. Shawn, you looked a lot better throwing the ball, but that spin move of yours to get out of trouble is killing us. Just step up into the pocket and deliver the ball.
Penalties were down this week (only 37 yards), but three of them came on the same drive and effectively killed our energy. Get it cleaned up.
Drops have improved, but we are still dropping easy passes. We need to quit that and if the ball hits the hands, it should be a catch. We do that and this offense is going to get white hot.
I thought about putting "Stop the KU running attack" but with Cornish not at 100% and the fact that if we get up quick, they are going to have to start throwing the ball, I don't think it's going to be a KEY to the game. It's important, but I think these things are more important.
Prediction to come this afternoon.
Time to End the Homecoming Game Blues
Let me first say that TDF had a great post below this one. Very accurate. My favorite line is this one:
But let's focus on Kansas, since we play them tomorrow.
Kansas kinda reminds me of our 2003 team. We had Rashad Armstrong in the backfield (1k yard rusher), but a questionable line, a questionable QB, and a spotty defense. But are we their Colorado?
I really don't see it. They are on the road and it's not just a trip to Manhatten or Lincoln, it's all the way down in Texas. They are 0-3 and their losses are getting worse, and they are the type of losses to kinda addle your brain. Overtime dogfight lost in the first OT period 39-32, after a big comeback. Leading 18-13 and then a minute later losing the game 21-18. Leading 17-0, and then getting blown out in the second half on the way to a 42-32 loss.
These are the types of losses that start to convince you that you are meant to lose games. You aren't supposed to win the game. They are the types of wins that have you sitting around waiting for something (anything!) to happen that hurts your team, and then you throw in the towel because "here we go again".
I know. I'm a Baylor fan.
The good news for us Baylor fans is that our team has overcome that mentality and so we can take advantage of it happening to Kansas. If we can hold them scoreless in the first quarter (half!?) and get a good lead on them, they will likely start to fold themselves. They've done it over and over again.
And Cornish, their best offensive weapon, isn't 100%. That means we don't have to key on the run as much as we would have, and that means our secondary can focus on making Meier's life even worse than his 11 interceptions already this year have made it. Our defense has shown it can be a pretty good run defense when it wants to. It's held excellent rushing teams to less than 2.5 yards per carry and low rushing totals.
But here's the major concern: Our Baylor teams of the last few years play to the level of their competition.
We come into a game with an idea of how it's going to go, and we play to that level. Against WSU we played a tough game that we should have won (IT WAS A FUMBLE!), but the next week we didn't play nearly as well, with nearly the intensity ("It was only Army...") and we got beat. Are we a better team than Army? No question, but only if we play to OUR potential and not to our conception of what their team's abilities are.
Baylor needs to show the killer instinct that has made the good and great teams what they are. We need to play to our potential, not our opponents. We need to come out and play hard for four quarters.
When Morriss first got here, he talked about throwing a blanket over the scoreboard and playing every possession like the score was 0-0. We need to do that again for a different reason. We aren't getting blown out any more, but WE should be delivering some blowouts. And if not blowouts, at least secure 14-20 point wins.
We can do that if we focus and play our brand of football. And I hope that's what I see tomorrow.
But let's be honest here, for Baylor, "beatable" means "not a sure loss."I think that pretty much sums up the feelings of most Baylor fans. And it might be pretty close to the truth, but I think all 5 remaining games are going to be close enough to be toss-ups. We have a much better shot than "not a sure loss" in each of them. Our road matchups are a crumbling Tech team (that will still be favored against us) and an up-and-down OSU team. At home, we have Kansas, who I think we should beat, A&M who we've played very closely and are giving up nearly 300 yards per game passing in conference, and OU who is suffering some injury and off-the-field problems.
But let's focus on Kansas, since we play them tomorrow.
Kansas kinda reminds me of our 2003 team. We had Rashad Armstrong in the backfield (1k yard rusher), but a questionable line, a questionable QB, and a spotty defense. But are we their Colorado?
I really don't see it. They are on the road and it's not just a trip to Manhatten or Lincoln, it's all the way down in Texas. They are 0-3 and their losses are getting worse, and they are the type of losses to kinda addle your brain. Overtime dogfight lost in the first OT period 39-32, after a big comeback. Leading 18-13 and then a minute later losing the game 21-18. Leading 17-0, and then getting blown out in the second half on the way to a 42-32 loss.
These are the types of losses that start to convince you that you are meant to lose games. You aren't supposed to win the game. They are the types of wins that have you sitting around waiting for something (anything!) to happen that hurts your team, and then you throw in the towel because "here we go again".
I know. I'm a Baylor fan.
The good news for us Baylor fans is that our team has overcome that mentality and so we can take advantage of it happening to Kansas. If we can hold them scoreless in the first quarter (half!?) and get a good lead on them, they will likely start to fold themselves. They've done it over and over again.
And Cornish, their best offensive weapon, isn't 100%. That means we don't have to key on the run as much as we would have, and that means our secondary can focus on making Meier's life even worse than his 11 interceptions already this year have made it. Our defense has shown it can be a pretty good run defense when it wants to. It's held excellent rushing teams to less than 2.5 yards per carry and low rushing totals.
But here's the major concern: Our Baylor teams of the last few years play to the level of their competition.
We come into a game with an idea of how it's going to go, and we play to that level. Against WSU we played a tough game that we should have won (IT WAS A FUMBLE!), but the next week we didn't play nearly as well, with nearly the intensity ("It was only Army...") and we got beat. Are we a better team than Army? No question, but only if we play to OUR potential and not to our conception of what their team's abilities are.
Baylor needs to show the killer instinct that has made the good and great teams what they are. We need to play to our potential, not our opponents. We need to come out and play hard for four quarters.
When Morriss first got here, he talked about throwing a blanket over the scoreboard and playing every possession like the score was 0-0. We need to do that again for a different reason. We aren't getting blown out any more, but WE should be delivering some blowouts. And if not blowouts, at least secure 14-20 point wins.
We can do that if we focus and play our brand of football. And I hope that's what I see tomorrow.
Thursday, October 19, 2006
Show Me
The table is set for the rest of the season. We need 3 out of 5 to be bowl eligible. The dynamics have changed somewhat since the beginning of the season and even since conference play started. Tech and OU all of a sudden look very beatable. But let's be honest here, for Baylor, "beatable" means "not a sure loss." Let's go over the remaining schedule to see what's coming up:
People have already started to leave KU for dead. I think these people are one game too early. You know the Jayhawks are looking at us as "beatable" as well. This is a coach and program that was arguably in worse shape than Baylor not too long ago (Steele's only Big 12 win) but have been bowling since. They will be looking to get well against us. If we do beat them, then I think they roll over for the rest of the season. Don't get me wrong, I see the stats and the common opponets and all of that too. We play a good game and we probably win. But would you put your house on that happening? Would it suprise anyone if we come out shooting ourselves in the foot? Didn't think so. We need to show up, man up, and win this one.
A&M isn't looking as beatable as they did to begin the year. MU was a solid team regardless of who they had played to that point. I think the only reason the Kanas game was close was because aggy is a below average passing team and couldn't exploit KU's most glaring weakness. If we don't get two scores ahead somehow and take the ball out of Lane's hands (I don't think we can stop him), we will be in trouble.
Tech to me is Jekyl/Hyde. We know that Leach's system can work. We know that they haven't been consistent with it this season. We're going to have to do like last year. Hopefully, our offense won't leave the defense for dead after keeping the team in it all game.
I haven't seen anything on OSU. I saw the score and read about the big comeback against Kansas but that's it. I think they are a dangerous team. They have plenty of athletes and are capable of making plays despite Gundy on the sideline. This game being on the road also concerns me.
Everyone is also saying that OU is a possible win now too. I know Peterson is done for the regular season but he didn't play last year against us either. Instead we made Mr. 4th string Jacob Guttierrez look like Walter Payton. Does anyone believe that Bomar was that much better than Paul Thompson? By the time we get to this game, it will be interesting to see if we are playing for something or if OU is for that matter.
First thing's first though. We don't want to have to start imagining scenarios if we lose to the Jayhawks. Having to win 2 out of 4 looks much better than 3 out of 5. People keep saying that the Bears are going to do it. Now is the time to actually show it. Saying you are better is not the same as actually going out there and doing it. Show me.
People have already started to leave KU for dead. I think these people are one game too early. You know the Jayhawks are looking at us as "beatable" as well. This is a coach and program that was arguably in worse shape than Baylor not too long ago (Steele's only Big 12 win) but have been bowling since. They will be looking to get well against us. If we do beat them, then I think they roll over for the rest of the season. Don't get me wrong, I see the stats and the common opponets and all of that too. We play a good game and we probably win. But would you put your house on that happening? Would it suprise anyone if we come out shooting ourselves in the foot? Didn't think so. We need to show up, man up, and win this one.
A&M isn't looking as beatable as they did to begin the year. MU was a solid team regardless of who they had played to that point. I think the only reason the Kanas game was close was because aggy is a below average passing team and couldn't exploit KU's most glaring weakness. If we don't get two scores ahead somehow and take the ball out of Lane's hands (I don't think we can stop him), we will be in trouble.
Tech to me is Jekyl/Hyde. We know that Leach's system can work. We know that they haven't been consistent with it this season. We're going to have to do like last year. Hopefully, our offense won't leave the defense for dead after keeping the team in it all game.
I haven't seen anything on OSU. I saw the score and read about the big comeback against Kansas but that's it. I think they are a dangerous team. They have plenty of athletes and are capable of making plays despite Gundy on the sideline. This game being on the road also concerns me.
Everyone is also saying that OU is a possible win now too. I know Peterson is done for the regular season but he didn't play last year against us either. Instead we made Mr. 4th string Jacob Guttierrez look like Walter Payton. Does anyone believe that Bomar was that much better than Paul Thompson? By the time we get to this game, it will be interesting to see if we are playing for something or if OU is for that matter.
First thing's first though. We don't want to have to start imagining scenarios if we lose to the Jayhawks. Having to win 2 out of 4 looks much better than 3 out of 5. People keep saying that the Bears are going to do it. Now is the time to actually show it. Saying you are better is not the same as actually going out there and doing it. Show me.
OSU Coach Spits On KU Player
It's at about the 30 second mark on the video above and you can clearly see the guy in the orange shirt standing over the player and lean over and spit on him.
This is unbelieveable!!
OSU should move quickly and fire this guy. That is completely unacceptable behavior. We will see how the school handles itself in the way they deal with this situation and what type of athletics department they are running up there in Stillwater.
Weekly Press Conference
Baylor football had its weekly press conference leading up to the Kansas game, and there were some very interesting things said.
Guy Morriss believes that the next five games are all winnable and also all loseable. Well, the first thing that pops in my head is, "Duh." But then I think about it. This is a good team, with some solid talent, but we still do have a long way to go before we can even think about sleep-walking through a game. Kansas in particular is a game that we can dominate from wire to wire, but only if we approach it with the same intensity that we did the Texas game.
I think that's key. We've shown the propensity to play to the level of our competition. #5 team in the nation? OK, we'll pass for 300 yards and hold them to their third lowest rushing total of the year. Army, no problem, we'll let you run on us and hang around long enough to beat us. If we don't cut that stuff out, we definitely could lose all five games. If we learn to play with intensity and determination no matter the opponent, we can win out and finish 7-1 in conference. I'd settle for 5-3 and a bowl game, though.
Coach Hays mentioned that he wants to play a bit more physical brand of football. That's good to hear. The problem with the spread offense is that by its very nature, it doesn't develop a toughness along the lines and in the players. Especially if the player buy into the fact that this is a finesse offense. I do like that we are seeing wide receivers blocking down field (although if Zeigler would have finished his block on the last TD against Texas, there wouldn't be any controversy about it).
Nick Moore had this quote:
I like that Moore recognizes that the team isn't quite performing as well as they say they are. They are a 3-4 team. They might be one of the better teams in the Big XII, but they don't play like it all the time. The fact that they realize it and are wanting to prove they are as good as they think/say they are makes me feel better about the Kansas game.
If you'd like to check out the transcript of the entire press conference, you can go here to check it out on the Baylor Official Athletics site.
Guy Morriss believes that the next five games are all winnable and also all loseable. Well, the first thing that pops in my head is, "Duh." But then I think about it. This is a good team, with some solid talent, but we still do have a long way to go before we can even think about sleep-walking through a game. Kansas in particular is a game that we can dominate from wire to wire, but only if we approach it with the same intensity that we did the Texas game.
I think that's key. We've shown the propensity to play to the level of our competition. #5 team in the nation? OK, we'll pass for 300 yards and hold them to their third lowest rushing total of the year. Army, no problem, we'll let you run on us and hang around long enough to beat us. If we don't cut that stuff out, we definitely could lose all five games. If we learn to play with intensity and determination no matter the opponent, we can win out and finish 7-1 in conference. I'd settle for 5-3 and a bowl game, though.
Coach Hays mentioned that he wants to play a bit more physical brand of football. That's good to hear. The problem with the spread offense is that by its very nature, it doesn't develop a toughness along the lines and in the players. Especially if the player buy into the fact that this is a finesse offense. I do like that we are seeing wide receivers blocking down field (although if Zeigler would have finished his block on the last TD against Texas, there wouldn't be any controversy about it).
Nick Moore had this quote:
We really want to show our fans that we are the team that we keep saying we are. We just need to keep working hard and eventually we will get respect."
I like that Moore recognizes that the team isn't quite performing as well as they say they are. They are a 3-4 team. They might be one of the better teams in the Big XII, but they don't play like it all the time. The fact that they realize it and are wanting to prove they are as good as they think/say they are makes me feel better about the Kansas game.
If you'd like to check out the transcript of the entire press conference, you can go here to check it out on the Baylor Official Athletics site.
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
Kansas is coming up fast!
Sorry I haven't gotten the updates flowing, I'm drowning in paper at work. I'll do my very best to get some more info up on Kansas and a bit of an outlook at the game by tonight.
If you haven't already, get your tickets for the game! It's Homecoming, so I expect everyone to be there!
If you haven't already, get your tickets for the game! It's Homecoming, so I expect everyone to be there!
Sunday, October 15, 2006
First Look at Kansas
You know that Shawn Bell is licking his chops looking at what joke-of-a-QB Bobby Reid did to the Kansas defense. 411 yards. Reid had 937 yards for the year, and 12 TDs, before the game. He had 5 TDs against Kansas.
If Bell did the same thing, he'd pass for 600 yards and 8 TDs against Kansas. Who am I to say he can't do it?
Kansas' pass defense ranks 110th in the nation, and with our offense seemingly starting to click, it's time to really put a hurting on someone. Kansas' defense is basically begging us to do it to them. Let's oblige them.
Oh, and Mosley, don't worry. KU gave up 192 yards on the ground, too. You should be able to get yours as well.
Kansas has lost to Toledo, Nebraska, A&M and OSU. Those last two games were at home. KU has beaten NSU (49-18), ULA-Monroe (21-19), and South Florida (13-7).
In conference play, they are averaging 27.3 points per game (the same as Baylor), while giving up a conference-worst 34 points per game. Baylor is giving up 32.3 points per game, but our defense is only allowing 27 points per game. And we've played Texas, and been involved in a triple overtime game.
Kansas has the second-leading rusher (Jon Cornish) who is averaging 109 yards per game, but only has one touchdown on the ground. KU doesn't have any players on the top 10 list for passers in conference, or on the top 10 list for total yardage.
Obviously, with a weak passing attack, they don't have any receiver on the top 10 receivers by yardage per game.
Kansas has the 9th best punter in conference by average punt yardage, with a 41.3 yards per punt average, and their kicker is tied for 4th in conference in scoring with 8 points per game.
Kansas' leading tackler is defensive back Jerome Kemp (sounds like the Steele-era). He is averaging 9 tackles a game. Kansas does have a pair of linebackers that are averging 7.3 tackles per game each.
I'll do a more in-depth look at KU tomorrow, but I thought I'd get this thrown up tonight to give you a glimpse at what we have to look forward to this weekend.
If Bell did the same thing, he'd pass for 600 yards and 8 TDs against Kansas. Who am I to say he can't do it?
Kansas' pass defense ranks 110th in the nation, and with our offense seemingly starting to click, it's time to really put a hurting on someone. Kansas' defense is basically begging us to do it to them. Let's oblige them.
Oh, and Mosley, don't worry. KU gave up 192 yards on the ground, too. You should be able to get yours as well.
Kansas has lost to Toledo, Nebraska, A&M and OSU. Those last two games were at home. KU has beaten NSU (49-18), ULA-Monroe (21-19), and South Florida (13-7).
In conference play, they are averaging 27.3 points per game (the same as Baylor), while giving up a conference-worst 34 points per game. Baylor is giving up 32.3 points per game, but our defense is only allowing 27 points per game. And we've played Texas, and been involved in a triple overtime game.
Kansas has the second-leading rusher (Jon Cornish) who is averaging 109 yards per game, but only has one touchdown on the ground. KU doesn't have any players on the top 10 list for passers in conference, or on the top 10 list for total yardage.
Obviously, with a weak passing attack, they don't have any receiver on the top 10 receivers by yardage per game.
Kansas has the 9th best punter in conference by average punt yardage, with a 41.3 yards per punt average, and their kicker is tied for 4th in conference in scoring with 8 points per game.
Kansas' leading tackler is defensive back Jerome Kemp (sounds like the Steele-era). He is averaging 9 tackles a game. Kansas does have a pair of linebackers that are averging 7.3 tackles per game each.
I'll do a more in-depth look at KU tomorrow, but I thought I'd get this thrown up tonight to give you a glimpse at what we have to look forward to this weekend.
I feel better today
I got some sleep last night and settled down a bit and I think I've recovered from my frustration from last night.
I don't have time right now to do a Top 5, but I wanted to share some reasons I feel better about the game now that I've got some emotional distance from it.
We put 31 (or 24) points on the top scoring defense in the conference. Well, they were until they played us, now they are tied for second. That's more points than we put on them the last 4 years combined. And it's triple what Texas has been allowing on average, and the most points they've allowed all year (or tied for the most if you like the 24 number better).
We "held" Texas to 4.4 yards per carry and 162 yards rushing. After giving up over 275 yards rushing to Colorado, this was a big accomplishment.
We didn't look completely overmatched in this game. There is a big talent disparity in this game, but you couldn't really see it. Our coaches put together a fantastic gameplan, and they've done a good enough job teaching technique that we were able to nullify the talent disadvantage for a large part.
Without the 21 points that were handed to Texas on turnovers, this is an 11-point game, which I think is an accurate representation of how the game was played.
If Baylor can continue to play at this level on offense and defense, there's no reason we can't win out. Really. I don't know if we can, and I wouldn't bet on it, the team has to show me, but aside from the Texas A&M game (I'll be out of the country), I'll be at every home game from here on out cheering my head off. Homecoming next week will tell us a lot about what to expect.
I don't have time right now to do a Top 5, but I wanted to share some reasons I feel better about the game now that I've got some emotional distance from it.
We put 31 (or 24) points on the top scoring defense in the conference. Well, they were until they played us, now they are tied for second. That's more points than we put on them the last 4 years combined. And it's triple what Texas has been allowing on average, and the most points they've allowed all year (or tied for the most if you like the 24 number better).
We "held" Texas to 4.4 yards per carry and 162 yards rushing. After giving up over 275 yards rushing to Colorado, this was a big accomplishment.
We didn't look completely overmatched in this game. There is a big talent disparity in this game, but you couldn't really see it. Our coaches put together a fantastic gameplan, and they've done a good enough job teaching technique that we were able to nullify the talent disadvantage for a large part.
Without the 21 points that were handed to Texas on turnovers, this is an 11-point game, which I think is an accurate representation of how the game was played.
If Baylor can continue to play at this level on offense and defense, there's no reason we can't win out. Really. I don't know if we can, and I wouldn't bet on it, the team has to show me, but aside from the Texas A&M game (I'll be out of the country), I'll be at every home game from here on out cheering my head off. Homecoming next week will tell us a lot about what to expect.
+4, They Win
The bottom line is that you can't give the #6 team in the nation 5 turnovers, including two for touchdowns, and expect to be competitive in the game.
Baylor handed Texas 21 points on a silver platter, and gave them plenty of other scoring chances with turnovers, and that was the difference in the game.
Yes, we gave up 437 yards, but we put up over 340 yards ourselves, and only averaged .4 yards per play fewer than Texas. Without those turnovers, we are much more in this game than we were.
Our defense played well, but not great. They couldn't come up with the big game-changing plays when we really needed them. CJ Wilson drops an interception, Corey Ford gets a penalty that takes away an interception, and that's not counting the TEN 3rd down conversions we allowed (10/15 on the night).
We held Texas to 4.4 yards per carry, the fewest since 2002 (the Mack Brown sympathy game for Steele). We had 6 TFL on a team with the best OL in the nation. But we didn't do enough, not by half.
The offense.
Let me just say that I know Bell is a nice guy. I also know that he just threw for 303 yards and 2 TDs, but being the QB he's going to get the blame, and I think he deserves his fair share.
2 interceptions (1 returned for a touchdown) and 2 fumbles (1 returned for a touchdown) were some of the biggest plays in the game, and they centered on Bell.
I thought Bell showed some very poor signs out there tonight. Ducking out of the way of pressure, not stepping up into the pocket, throwing blind passes, short-hopping passes to the flat. There's a reason that his completion percentage was the lowest in a LONG time (53%). He couldn't complete those short passes to the flats. He was not very accurate at all today.
But I think we are seeing what happens when you do open this offense up a bit. While I don't want to trigger the cries of "MORAL VICTORY!", I do think we need to keep in mind that Texas led the conference in scoring defense, only allowing 10.8 points per game. Baylor tripled that tonight, scoring more points than any other team Texas has played. Take away that last touchdown that was questionable, and we are still tying Ohio State (the #1 team in the nation) for the most points scored on Texas all year. We scored as many points as UTs last three opponents COMBINED.
So we were doing something right.
But we did a lot wrong tonight, too, and when you are looking for an upset and fail, that's what you are going to dwell on. If we'd pulled this one out, then we'd all be talking about the great things, and we wouldn't be worrying so much about the 10 or 12 little things that changed the outcome of the game.
Bottom line: We were picked to get blown out in this game and we fought hard and the only reason we lost this game the way we did was because we did it to ourselves. I'm not saying we wouldn't have lost if we could have those turnovers back, but it sure would have been a heck of a lot closer. A 31-42 game is a lot easier to swallow than what we got, but it EASILY could have been that score.
Let's let this one roll off our backs, take the offensive improvement we saw tonight, and move onto Kansas. THAT is a must-win. As is every other game on our schedule. And after Tech and OUs performance today, every single game on our schedule is a winnable game. This year is FAR from over.
Let's get our three.
Baylor handed Texas 21 points on a silver platter, and gave them plenty of other scoring chances with turnovers, and that was the difference in the game.
Yes, we gave up 437 yards, but we put up over 340 yards ourselves, and only averaged .4 yards per play fewer than Texas. Without those turnovers, we are much more in this game than we were.
Our defense played well, but not great. They couldn't come up with the big game-changing plays when we really needed them. CJ Wilson drops an interception, Corey Ford gets a penalty that takes away an interception, and that's not counting the TEN 3rd down conversions we allowed (10/15 on the night).
We held Texas to 4.4 yards per carry, the fewest since 2002 (the Mack Brown sympathy game for Steele). We had 6 TFL on a team with the best OL in the nation. But we didn't do enough, not by half.
The offense.
Let me just say that I know Bell is a nice guy. I also know that he just threw for 303 yards and 2 TDs, but being the QB he's going to get the blame, and I think he deserves his fair share.
2 interceptions (1 returned for a touchdown) and 2 fumbles (1 returned for a touchdown) were some of the biggest plays in the game, and they centered on Bell.
I thought Bell showed some very poor signs out there tonight. Ducking out of the way of pressure, not stepping up into the pocket, throwing blind passes, short-hopping passes to the flat. There's a reason that his completion percentage was the lowest in a LONG time (53%). He couldn't complete those short passes to the flats. He was not very accurate at all today.
But I think we are seeing what happens when you do open this offense up a bit. While I don't want to trigger the cries of "MORAL VICTORY!", I do think we need to keep in mind that Texas led the conference in scoring defense, only allowing 10.8 points per game. Baylor tripled that tonight, scoring more points than any other team Texas has played. Take away that last touchdown that was questionable, and we are still tying Ohio State (the #1 team in the nation) for the most points scored on Texas all year. We scored as many points as UTs last three opponents COMBINED.
So we were doing something right.
But we did a lot wrong tonight, too, and when you are looking for an upset and fail, that's what you are going to dwell on. If we'd pulled this one out, then we'd all be talking about the great things, and we wouldn't be worrying so much about the 10 or 12 little things that changed the outcome of the game.
Bottom line: We were picked to get blown out in this game and we fought hard and the only reason we lost this game the way we did was because we did it to ourselves. I'm not saying we wouldn't have lost if we could have those turnovers back, but it sure would have been a heck of a lot closer. A 31-42 game is a lot easier to swallow than what we got, but it EASILY could have been that score.
Let's let this one roll off our backs, take the offensive improvement we saw tonight, and move onto Kansas. THAT is a must-win. As is every other game on our schedule. And after Tech and OUs performance today, every single game on our schedule is a winnable game. This year is FAR from over.
Let's get our three.
Saturday, October 14, 2006
Prediction Time...
This game is impossible to predict in a "safe" way. If I predict a blowout loss and Baylor plays it close, then I'm an idiot. I predict a close game and we get blown out, I'm an idiot. I predict a close game or a blow out and we WIN!? I'm a traitorous idiot.
So, knowing that, this is what I think is going to happen. I think Texas is going to run the ball. Very well. I think they get over 250 yards rushing. I think they likely roll up over 200 yards passing, too. But I think we get some turnovers (2-3) and the offense shows up a little bit better.
Final Score:
Baylor 13
Texas 35
So, knowing that, this is what I think is going to happen. I think Texas is going to run the ball. Very well. I think they get over 250 yards rushing. I think they likely roll up over 200 yards passing, too. But I think we get some turnovers (2-3) and the offense shows up a little bit better.
Final Score:
Baylor 13
Texas 35
Thursday, October 12, 2006
The Parks Fall-out
So now that Parks is gone, who is going to replace him?
The best bet would be Justin Akers.
Akers is 6-5, 240lbs and is running in the 4.6-4.7 range. He was a Waco Tribune-Herald Top 100 recruit out of high school and caught 26 passes for 462 yards, an average of 17.8 yards per catch, with five touchdowns.
Contrary to a lot of the tight-ends we recruited, there was never a thought of moving Akers in to the offensive line. He was a TE to stay, with the thought that he could stretch the field.
He's not as big as Parks (who aside from the linemen on the team were?), but he's got very good hands, and is athletic for his size. And he's actually a little taller than Parks was.
There is another option and that's moving away from the big inside receiver and putting more speed on the field. This would probably include more sets with Fenty, Sims, Payne and others in that mold on the field.
I think against Texas, I would go with an extra smaller/faster receiver on the field. That would put even more pressure on their linebackers, who are the weakest part of the their defense (which is definitely a statement of relativity).
Fenty has been a huge surprise since buring his redshirt, and Payne has been very productive around the endzone. Sims has been injured, but we know that he's athletic enough to be productive in this offense.
Whatever the move, it will lead to a temporary weakness as we lose a valuable player. But this situation was not something to quibble over and the right move was made. It's just a shame.
The best bet would be Justin Akers.
Akers is 6-5, 240lbs and is running in the 4.6-4.7 range. He was a Waco Tribune-Herald Top 100 recruit out of high school and caught 26 passes for 462 yards, an average of 17.8 yards per catch, with five touchdowns.
Contrary to a lot of the tight-ends we recruited, there was never a thought of moving Akers in to the offensive line. He was a TE to stay, with the thought that he could stretch the field.
He's not as big as Parks (who aside from the linemen on the team were?), but he's got very good hands, and is athletic for his size. And he's actually a little taller than Parks was.
There is another option and that's moving away from the big inside receiver and putting more speed on the field. This would probably include more sets with Fenty, Sims, Payne and others in that mold on the field.
I think against Texas, I would go with an extra smaller/faster receiver on the field. That would put even more pressure on their linebackers, who are the weakest part of the their defense (which is definitely a statement of relativity).
Fenty has been a huge surprise since buring his redshirt, and Payne has been very productive around the endzone. Sims has been injured, but we know that he's athletic enough to be productive in this offense.
Whatever the move, it will lead to a temporary weakness as we lose a valuable player. But this situation was not something to quibble over and the right move was made. It's just a shame.
Parks Off the Team?
I got word from a guy down in Waco and it has been confirmed by other sources, so it seems to be the case.
I won't go into details, but Parks has apparently been kicked off the team due to some behavior that was completely unacceptable.
It will be interesting to see what happens at the inside receiver position. Akers will have to pick up the slack there.
This is a terrible development, because that kid had a ton of potential and could have been one of the key targets next year as a senior, and he threw it all away.
EDIT:
Update from the Official Site has Parks "suspended indefinitely" from the team.
I won't go into details, but Parks has apparently been kicked off the team due to some behavior that was completely unacceptable.
It will be interesting to see what happens at the inside receiver position. Akers will have to pick up the slack there.
This is a terrible development, because that kid had a ton of potential and could have been one of the key targets next year as a senior, and he threw it all away.
EDIT:
Update from the Official Site has Parks "suspended indefinitely" from the team.
Gameplan for Texas
I know everyone is hyped about the start of conference and how we are playing Texas for first place in the Big XII South. The Bears do deserve some credit for going to a tough place and took CU's best shot. I had been waiting to see when the team would grow a backbone and they finally stood in there and fought back for the win. Granted, the two wins we have were against possibly the number 11 and 12 teams in the conference, but as far as I'm concerned, we won't care who it was against at the end of the season. This was the kind of game we needed to win other games later on. Hopefully, the guys won't start hanging their heads and making the pooch lip when a couple things go against them in the future.
This week is obviously against Texas. I was actually present the last time Baylor beat the Longhorns, making an unofficial visit to campus. The closest we've come since then was the 98 season in Austin where we lost 30-20. I was also at this game and it was much closer than that. We led for much of the game and the combination of our self-destruction and Ricky Williams was too much. That 98 team lost about 4 conference games much like that one.
I never pretend that losing is good in any form. I don't believe in moral victories. On paper, we will get stomped. Can we win? Anything is possible but some major miracles in succession will have to take place. In the grand scheme of things, no one was counting this one as a win. However, the next two against KU and aTm were considered winnable (now must-wins).
I think the Bears should throw the kitchen sink at them. This serves two purposes: 1-Maybe we catch Texas off guard and we get some cheap scores to keep it close; 2- We force Kansas and Aggie to prepare for that crap. Make them take time out of practice and meetings to show the plays and run them with the scout team taking time away from practicing running up and making the tackle on passes behind the line of scrimmage where Bell throws it. I'll be dissapointed if we don't see double reverse passes, onside kicks, fake punts, etc. What's the worst that could happen? We lose? I think we know from the past 8 seasons that the sun still manages to come up the next day after losing to Texas.
I obviously hope it doesn't, but if it gets out of hand it would be a great opportunity to play guys like Syz, Gettis, Smith, etc. Let them play on national television in front of a big crowd on the road. That will be experience that will help them in the next 2-3 years.
Let's hope it doesn't come to that. I hope to see the Bears come out and compete for 4 quarters. I want to see them do the little things right: take care of the ball, limited penalties, solid tackling. If we do that, I won't care how it ends up on the scoreboard, it will show that the team is improving going into games we need to win to attain our goals.
This week is obviously against Texas. I was actually present the last time Baylor beat the Longhorns, making an unofficial visit to campus. The closest we've come since then was the 98 season in Austin where we lost 30-20. I was also at this game and it was much closer than that. We led for much of the game and the combination of our self-destruction and Ricky Williams was too much. That 98 team lost about 4 conference games much like that one.
I never pretend that losing is good in any form. I don't believe in moral victories. On paper, we will get stomped. Can we win? Anything is possible but some major miracles in succession will have to take place. In the grand scheme of things, no one was counting this one as a win. However, the next two against KU and aTm were considered winnable (now must-wins).
I think the Bears should throw the kitchen sink at them. This serves two purposes: 1-Maybe we catch Texas off guard and we get some cheap scores to keep it close; 2- We force Kansas and Aggie to prepare for that crap. Make them take time out of practice and meetings to show the plays and run them with the scout team taking time away from practicing running up and making the tackle on passes behind the line of scrimmage where Bell throws it. I'll be dissapointed if we don't see double reverse passes, onside kicks, fake punts, etc. What's the worst that could happen? We lose? I think we know from the past 8 seasons that the sun still manages to come up the next day after losing to Texas.
I obviously hope it doesn't, but if it gets out of hand it would be a great opportunity to play guys like Syz, Gettis, Smith, etc. Let them play on national television in front of a big crowd on the road. That will be experience that will help them in the next 2-3 years.
Let's hope it doesn't come to that. I hope to see the Bears come out and compete for 4 quarters. I want to see them do the little things right: take care of the ball, limited penalties, solid tackling. If we do that, I won't care how it ends up on the scoreboard, it will show that the team is improving going into games we need to win to attain our goals.
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
HEX TEX!!
Moment of truth. Game of the Year. SuperBowl.
Yep, it's all here. Baylor takes their first ever 2-0 record in the Big XII, the first time they've been in first place in the division in the second week (I know, pretty pathetic) into Austin, TX.
HEX TEX!!
This is going to be the hardest game we play, and it's going to have to be our best game of the year to pull out a win. We're going to have to play much better on both sides of the ball (and on special teams) to keep this game close.
Are we capable? Yes. But we will have to play over our heads.
I want all you Baylor fans to be thinking bad thoughts about Texas all week long. If you see any UT alumni, give them dirty looks and treat them very badly. They are the enemy.
HEX TEX!!
Yep, it's all here. Baylor takes their first ever 2-0 record in the Big XII, the first time they've been in first place in the division in the second week (I know, pretty pathetic) into Austin, TX.
HEX TEX!!
This is going to be the hardest game we play, and it's going to have to be our best game of the year to pull out a win. We're going to have to play much better on both sides of the ball (and on special teams) to keep this game close.
Are we capable? Yes. But we will have to play over our heads.
I want all you Baylor fans to be thinking bad thoughts about Texas all week long. If you see any UT alumni, give them dirty looks and treat them very badly. They are the enemy.
HEX TEX!!
Top 5
We got a really exciting game against Colorado, but let's try and temper the enthusiasm by remembering that it WAS a triple overtime win over a (now) 0-6 team. It's great to be 2-0 in the Big XII, but we've done so against two of the worst three teams in the Big XII (the other being OSU).
But we DID do some very good things and a win on the road against ANYONE is not something to be flippant about in the Big XII. Really, all we have to do (yeah "all we have to do") is win out at home to get to a bowl game. And we also have a game against OSU on the road that is definitely winnable (though I expect a CU-like dogfight up there).
Now let's look at the Top 5 positive and negative things we did this past weekend.
#5 Negative - Whoever was Spying Jackson
Come on!! The guy is a great athlete, cool, I got that. But the play that could have ended the game is a 4th and 1 and we give up a 19 yard run. I know the penalty at the end was bogus, but the 19-yard run was what killed us.
#5 Positive - Sepulveda/Special Teams Coverage units
10 yards on one kickoff return. 2 50+ yard punts. 44.2 yards NET per punt. Great effort and great job making up for the inconsistency of our offense.
#4 Negative -Defensive Line
Where is our pass rush? OK, the guy is mobile, so maybe we don't get a bunch of sacks, but 276 yards rushing!? We better learn how to defend the run this week or Texas is going to maul us. This is where the defense needs to find themselves. Rhodes and Lamb sound like they are coming on, but they need those seniors to step up and be leaders.
#4 Positive - Offensive Line
Great job blocking for the run and the pass. We gave up two sacks, but paved the way for a 110 yard rushing day and 70% completion in the passing game. And the line gave Bell time to find Shelton on 4th down in a play that extended the game.
#3 Negative - Interceptions
Two interceptions just really killed the possibility of this being a game we had in hand much earlier. The first came on our first drive while trying to answer Colorado's opening scoring drive. The second was even more disturbing since it came at the 4 yard line in the endzone. Why didn't we rush the ball on first down? I don't know, but we really can't, can't, can't throw a pick inside the five yardline.
#3 Positive - Trent Shelton
Clutch, playmaker, leader. This guy has it all. Great catch to extend the game, and four other catches that kept the offense moving.
#2 Negative - Special Teams turnovers
Turning over the ball on the opening kickoff of the second half is a great way to kill any momentum you brought INTO halftime. We've got to cut these turnovers out. Thankfully, Cosby missed this field goal from 36 yards (proving we were destined to win the game) and it didn't hurt us. We do it against Texas and that's a touchdown.
#2 Positive - Paul Mosley
20 carries for 85 yards and two touchdowns. Mosley alone exceeded Colorado's previous rushing yards allowed, and gave the offense the rushing threat that it desperately needed.
#1 Negative - Rush Defense
The defensive line got called out by themselves, but we had a lot of guys throughout the defense with the Roy Williams syndrome (Going for the big hit and missing the tackle). Wrap up, secure the man, and let somebody else knock him silly. Like I said about the defensive line: Our performance in this area won't cut it against Texas.
#1 Positive - Joe Pawelek
You know, I wondered if JoePa was getting too much credit for what he did in this game, even if I gave too much credit on this blog last night. Not that he didn't have a good game, but I wondered if his accomplishments were being blown out of proportion. They weren't. 14 tackles (11 solo), a quarterback hurry, a tackle for a loss, and the game-winning interception. No other player came close to impacting the game the way JoePa did.
But we DID do some very good things and a win on the road against ANYONE is not something to be flippant about in the Big XII. Really, all we have to do (yeah "all we have to do") is win out at home to get to a bowl game. And we also have a game against OSU on the road that is definitely winnable (though I expect a CU-like dogfight up there).
Now let's look at the Top 5 positive and negative things we did this past weekend.
#5 Negative - Whoever was Spying Jackson
Come on!! The guy is a great athlete, cool, I got that. But the play that could have ended the game is a 4th and 1 and we give up a 19 yard run. I know the penalty at the end was bogus, but the 19-yard run was what killed us.
#5 Positive - Sepulveda/Special Teams Coverage units
10 yards on one kickoff return. 2 50+ yard punts. 44.2 yards NET per punt. Great effort and great job making up for the inconsistency of our offense.
#4 Negative -Defensive Line
Where is our pass rush? OK, the guy is mobile, so maybe we don't get a bunch of sacks, but 276 yards rushing!? We better learn how to defend the run this week or Texas is going to maul us. This is where the defense needs to find themselves. Rhodes and Lamb sound like they are coming on, but they need those seniors to step up and be leaders.
#4 Positive - Offensive Line
Great job blocking for the run and the pass. We gave up two sacks, but paved the way for a 110 yard rushing day and 70% completion in the passing game. And the line gave Bell time to find Shelton on 4th down in a play that extended the game.
#3 Negative - Interceptions
Two interceptions just really killed the possibility of this being a game we had in hand much earlier. The first came on our first drive while trying to answer Colorado's opening scoring drive. The second was even more disturbing since it came at the 4 yard line in the endzone. Why didn't we rush the ball on first down? I don't know, but we really can't, can't, can't throw a pick inside the five yardline.
#3 Positive - Trent Shelton
Clutch, playmaker, leader. This guy has it all. Great catch to extend the game, and four other catches that kept the offense moving.
#2 Negative - Special Teams turnovers
Turning over the ball on the opening kickoff of the second half is a great way to kill any momentum you brought INTO halftime. We've got to cut these turnovers out. Thankfully, Cosby missed this field goal from 36 yards (proving we were destined to win the game) and it didn't hurt us. We do it against Texas and that's a touchdown.
#2 Positive - Paul Mosley
20 carries for 85 yards and two touchdowns. Mosley alone exceeded Colorado's previous rushing yards allowed, and gave the offense the rushing threat that it desperately needed.
#1 Negative - Rush Defense
The defensive line got called out by themselves, but we had a lot of guys throughout the defense with the Roy Williams syndrome (Going for the big hit and missing the tackle). Wrap up, secure the man, and let somebody else knock him silly. Like I said about the defensive line: Our performance in this area won't cut it against Texas.
#1 Positive - Joe Pawelek
You know, I wondered if JoePa was getting too much credit for what he did in this game, even if I gave too much credit on this blog last night. Not that he didn't have a good game, but I wondered if his accomplishments were being blown out of proportion. They weren't. 14 tackles (11 solo), a quarterback hurry, a tackle for a loss, and the game-winning interception. No other player came close to impacting the game the way JoePa did.
Saturday, October 07, 2006
Did we kick the door down?
I'm still pretty gigged about this game and how the team fought back and kept going despite all the things that could have gotten them down. Morriss has long said in those close losses that we just needed to kick the door down one of these games, was this the game that we finally kicked it in?
We took CUs best shot. They are probably the best 0-6 team in history. They are going to win some games this year, and I wouldn't be shocked if they finished 4-1 against the North, if they can hold together after this rough stop.
We were down to a 4th down in overtime and still sucked it up and made a big play. Shawn Bell showed a lot of courage on that play. I salute him for it. I didn't think he necessarily had a great game (5.9 yards per attempt!?), but he made plays when they HAD to be made.
This offense has a LONG way to go, but you can start to see what the potential is. We put together a good drive, with a lot of rushing from Paul Mosley (WHAT A HOSS!), probably the best drive of the year, but then we also had a lot of very poor drives and we left our defense on the field for 32 minutes. That won't fly from here on out.
I think we kicked the door in, I think we've turned a corner. Now we just need to make sure that Texas doesn't kick the door back in our face.
We took CUs best shot. They are probably the best 0-6 team in history. They are going to win some games this year, and I wouldn't be shocked if they finished 4-1 against the North, if they can hold together after this rough stop.
We were down to a 4th down in overtime and still sucked it up and made a big play. Shawn Bell showed a lot of courage on that play. I salute him for it. I didn't think he necessarily had a great game (5.9 yards per attempt!?), but he made plays when they HAD to be made.
This offense has a LONG way to go, but you can start to see what the potential is. We put together a good drive, with a lot of rushing from Paul Mosley (WHAT A HOSS!), probably the best drive of the year, but then we also had a lot of very poor drives and we left our defense on the field for 32 minutes. That won't fly from here on out.
I think we kicked the door in, I think we've turned a corner. Now we just need to make sure that Texas doesn't kick the door back in our face.
Shall we annoint him a "Samurai"?
I know it's a bit early too even begin the talk of comparing Joe Pawelek and Mike Singletary, but the kid is showing himself to be something really, really special.14 tackles (11 solo), a QB hurry, and one of the most important turnovers in this year.
And Baylor is heading to Austin next week in a battle for first place in the Big XII South.
Sure it's only the third week of Big XII play, but that remains to be the case (I'm assuming that Tech drops their game to Missouri, not because I think it'll happen, but because I HOPE it will happen).
This is one of the biggest, if not THE biggest, wins in Guy Morriss' career here at Baylor. Heading into Boulder, a very tough place to play, on Colorado's Homecoming, to a team with a LOT to prove, and not only do we pull out the game, but we show incredible determination in doing so. And while the altitude might have had an effect, it didn't show late in the game as the team made big play after big play after big play.
HUGE congratulations to the team. Enjoy this win, and then get ready to go to war. Nothing we've seen up until now will be good enough against Texas in Austin. But if we can finally put together a great game in all facets of our team, there's no reason we can't do something special next weekend.
Colorado Prediction
I think Baylor will struggle to score in this game, but the defense will make the stops when they need to.
Jackson will run all over our defense, but the offense will show us something, some consistency.
My hope: Whitaker or Mosley remember how to run the football.
My wish: Bell passes for 7+ yards per attempt.
My prediction:
Baylor wins a close one in the fourth quarter with a late touchdown:
Baylor - 17
Colorado - 13 (Cosby is a field goal kicking fool)
Jackson will run all over our defense, but the offense will show us something, some consistency.
My hope: Whitaker or Mosley remember how to run the football.
My wish: Bell passes for 7+ yards per attempt.
My prediction:
Baylor wins a close one in the fourth quarter with a late touchdown:
Baylor - 17
Colorado - 13 (Cosby is a field goal kicking fool)
Friday, October 06, 2006
Kansas State Imploding
After the Baylor game, apparently Coach Ron Prince lost him mind.
During practice on Monday, he apparently demoted starting running back Clayton to third string, suspended a bunch of other player for two days of practice, and they are not certain to even play on Saturday.
One player (a 4* OL recruit) has quit the team after being berated for not practicing through a shoulder injury.
Apparently Prince is taking the tactic of: if practicing didn't lead to a win, perhaps NOT practicing will lead to a win.
To me, he just seems like a Steele-esque coach that goes insane instead of going jogging/drinking carrot juice.
I feel bad for the Kansas State players, especially now that we've beaten them, but I am keenly interested to see how this one develops over the rest of their season. Especially since they'll likely be battling Colorado for the basement of the Big XII North.
During practice on Monday, he apparently demoted starting running back Clayton to third string, suspended a bunch of other player for two days of practice, and they are not certain to even play on Saturday.
One player (a 4* OL recruit) has quit the team after being berated for not practicing through a shoulder injury.
Apparently Prince is taking the tactic of: if practicing didn't lead to a win, perhaps NOT practicing will lead to a win.
To me, he just seems like a Steele-esque coach that goes insane instead of going jogging/drinking carrot juice.
I feel bad for the Kansas State players, especially now that we've beaten them, but I am keenly interested to see how this one develops over the rest of their season. Especially since they'll likely be battling Colorado for the basement of the Big XII North.
Thursday, October 05, 2006
To Burn or Not To Burn?
Sorry I've been gone for a couple days. I got a not so little bug and was down and out, then swamped at work when I got back.
But, Baylor football keeps on going, and we've got a game in a couple days!
One of the big questions for the upcoming game is what to do about Tim Atchison with Jordan Lake out with a broken collarbone.
Let me preface this by saying that I think Tim is going to be a star in the secondary. He's smart, athletic and big. He's going to be a great free safety, as early as next year. He could be good for us this year.
But I wonder if we are, perhaps, too quick to burn his shirt. A redshirt year is a very important development period where a player can learn the position, get bigger, get used to going to classes and being mature about your time-management before having the responsibility of also playing well on Saturdays.
Atchison is good enough right now to back up Crawford. He is, but if we could give him this year to really prepare his body for the Big XII, then I think the next four years he could be very, very good. I think he could be a special player in the secondary.
On the flip side, Atchison could get some valuable experience playing against the Big XII, and since he is already basically prepared to go, maybe he doesn't need the redshirt year as badly as someone else.
If he can get as many snaps as Lake was getting, then I think we should go ahead and play him. But if we are going to play Crawford more, and be scared to use Atchison, then what's the point? I still get frustrated when I think of burning Francis' shirt and then not playing him all that much. Or Zeigler getting 9 catches his true freshman year. Or Baker, Teasley and Sims combining for 22 catches for the year (average of 7 each) last year in their true freshman year. And don't get me started on Gettis/Smith this year.
If you're going to burn the shirt, use the kid. If you can't use him enough, or are going to be too scared to play him, then don't.
Next year I can foresee Lake or Atchison starting at FS, Crawford sliding down to OS in Linquist's spot, and then having Widemon and Davis starting at the corner and Stiggers at the other OS spot. That is a stout, stout secondary, even with the loss of CJ Wilson and Arline. That secondary might be better than this years version. Especially if you consider that the depth will be more talented (Atchison/Lake, Criss, Williams, etc.).
But, Baylor football keeps on going, and we've got a game in a couple days!
One of the big questions for the upcoming game is what to do about Tim Atchison with Jordan Lake out with a broken collarbone.
Let me preface this by saying that I think Tim is going to be a star in the secondary. He's smart, athletic and big. He's going to be a great free safety, as early as next year. He could be good for us this year.
But I wonder if we are, perhaps, too quick to burn his shirt. A redshirt year is a very important development period where a player can learn the position, get bigger, get used to going to classes and being mature about your time-management before having the responsibility of also playing well on Saturdays.
Atchison is good enough right now to back up Crawford. He is, but if we could give him this year to really prepare his body for the Big XII, then I think the next four years he could be very, very good. I think he could be a special player in the secondary.
On the flip side, Atchison could get some valuable experience playing against the Big XII, and since he is already basically prepared to go, maybe he doesn't need the redshirt year as badly as someone else.
If he can get as many snaps as Lake was getting, then I think we should go ahead and play him. But if we are going to play Crawford more, and be scared to use Atchison, then what's the point? I still get frustrated when I think of burning Francis' shirt and then not playing him all that much. Or Zeigler getting 9 catches his true freshman year. Or Baker, Teasley and Sims combining for 22 catches for the year (average of 7 each) last year in their true freshman year. And don't get me started on Gettis/Smith this year.
If you're going to burn the shirt, use the kid. If you can't use him enough, or are going to be too scared to play him, then don't.
Next year I can foresee Lake or Atchison starting at FS, Crawford sliding down to OS in Linquist's spot, and then having Widemon and Davis starting at the corner and Stiggers at the other OS spot. That is a stout, stout secondary, even with the loss of CJ Wilson and Arline. That secondary might be better than this years version. Especially if you consider that the depth will be more talented (Atchison/Lake, Criss, Williams, etc.).
Monday, October 02, 2006
Who is Colorado?
Yeah, they are 0-5, but let's not beat our chests. We are a 2-3 team that dropped 3 games we should have won. Colorado is insanely close to having our record, including a win over a nationally-ranked opponent on the road. They lost two games by a combined 5 points. Our two close calls that could have been wins were 17 points away. Our sole win over a D1 opponent came by a mere 14 points, with some very lucky stops by the defense.
Long story short, we cannot take this game lightly. In fact, we are going into this game as an underdog, CU is favored by 5.5 points over Baylor this weekend.
So what does Colorado bring to the table?
Bernard Jackson, is CUs quarterback and is just above 50% passing, with 486 yards on 84 attempts (5.78yds/attempt). He has thrown 2 interceptions so far this year and is yet to pass for a touchdown this year. Jackson has improved every game in his passing abilities. He's gone from 70 to 190 yards, with incremental improvement each week. That's something that Baylor will have to keep in mind.
While he's still developing in the passing game, he is already dangerous on the ground. Do not underestimate him in that regard. We haven't faced a truly mobile quarterback yet this year, and while we've done well against the option attack, a mobile quarterback in the system that Colorado is running is a different animal.
Jackson has run for 218 yards on 66 carries (3.3 yds/carry), 95 yards behind their leading rusher, Hugh Charles (313 yards). And while he might not have the most rushing yards, he does have three rushing touchdowns to Charles' 0. Charles is averaging over 5 yards per carry, though and should not be ignored. Baylor will have a tough time covering both these areas.
The good news is that despite his rushing ability, and his increasingly successful passing attack, he has thrown 2 interceptions, one in each of the last two games. Baylor's defense has forced more than 3 turnovers a game so far this year, which is tied for first in the nation. One other bright spot in this is that while he is mobile and dangerous on the ground, he has been susceptible to being sacked. He has 15 sacks in the CUs last 4 games, for a loss of 80 yards. For comparison sake, Bell has been sacked 12 times in 5 games.
Colorado's offense as a whole is averaging less than 14 first downs a game, 134 yards on the ground, while only managing 119 yards through the air. Of course, CU has managed 165 yards through the air in the last two games, and as I said before have seen improvement in that area every game. Perhaps the worst facet of Colorado's offense is their 3rd down conversion rate. Colorado has only managed 19 third down conversions in 5 games, and only in 67 opportunities. That's 28.4% folks. Sad, sad, sad.
Colorado's defense hasn't had much success stopping people to this point. They've allowed 320 yards per game, have only forced 9 turnovers in 5 games, and they've been been very welcoming to passing scores in the redzone. They've allowed 13 scores in 18 opportunities in the redzone. 11 of those 13 scores have been touchdowns, and 9 of the 11 touchdowns have been through the air. If there was a game in which Bell and the offense wanted to get their redzone scoring fixed, this would appear to be the one.
As bad as the CU offense is at 3rd down conversions, the CU defense might be doing even less on their end in that area. They are allowing more than 45% success on third down conversions (34-75), which is even worse when you consider that the average "yards-to-go" for those third-down conversions was 8.1 yards. Baylor has been averaging a very healthy 39% conversion rate on their own, which hopefully will mean that we have a really good day on 3rd downs.
Further, Colorado's opponents have also lost another touchdown, brought back due to penalty.
The biggest thing to remember is that Colorado and Baylor are two teams that are going through the growing pains of a new offense under new leadership. The scary part is that we don't know which one is going to start to grow up first. Is it going to be the Bear Raid offense under Bell? Is it going to be Hawkins Boise St. offense going under Jackson? I have a hard time betting against our defense, but in that altitude if the offense doesn't give us enough rest, we are going to be hurting towards the end of the game.
Long story short, we cannot take this game lightly. In fact, we are going into this game as an underdog, CU is favored by 5.5 points over Baylor this weekend.
So what does Colorado bring to the table?
Bernard Jackson, is CUs quarterback and is just above 50% passing, with 486 yards on 84 attempts (5.78yds/attempt). He has thrown 2 interceptions so far this year and is yet to pass for a touchdown this year. Jackson has improved every game in his passing abilities. He's gone from 70 to 190 yards, with incremental improvement each week. That's something that Baylor will have to keep in mind.
While he's still developing in the passing game, he is already dangerous on the ground. Do not underestimate him in that regard. We haven't faced a truly mobile quarterback yet this year, and while we've done well against the option attack, a mobile quarterback in the system that Colorado is running is a different animal.
Jackson has run for 218 yards on 66 carries (3.3 yds/carry), 95 yards behind their leading rusher, Hugh Charles (313 yards). And while he might not have the most rushing yards, he does have three rushing touchdowns to Charles' 0. Charles is averaging over 5 yards per carry, though and should not be ignored. Baylor will have a tough time covering both these areas.
The good news is that despite his rushing ability, and his increasingly successful passing attack, he has thrown 2 interceptions, one in each of the last two games. Baylor's defense has forced more than 3 turnovers a game so far this year, which is tied for first in the nation. One other bright spot in this is that while he is mobile and dangerous on the ground, he has been susceptible to being sacked. He has 15 sacks in the CUs last 4 games, for a loss of 80 yards. For comparison sake, Bell has been sacked 12 times in 5 games.
Colorado's offense as a whole is averaging less than 14 first downs a game, 134 yards on the ground, while only managing 119 yards through the air. Of course, CU has managed 165 yards through the air in the last two games, and as I said before have seen improvement in that area every game. Perhaps the worst facet of Colorado's offense is their 3rd down conversion rate. Colorado has only managed 19 third down conversions in 5 games, and only in 67 opportunities. That's 28.4% folks. Sad, sad, sad.
Colorado's defense hasn't had much success stopping people to this point. They've allowed 320 yards per game, have only forced 9 turnovers in 5 games, and they've been been very welcoming to passing scores in the redzone. They've allowed 13 scores in 18 opportunities in the redzone. 11 of those 13 scores have been touchdowns, and 9 of the 11 touchdowns have been through the air. If there was a game in which Bell and the offense wanted to get their redzone scoring fixed, this would appear to be the one.
As bad as the CU offense is at 3rd down conversions, the CU defense might be doing even less on their end in that area. They are allowing more than 45% success on third down conversions (34-75), which is even worse when you consider that the average "yards-to-go" for those third-down conversions was 8.1 yards. Baylor has been averaging a very healthy 39% conversion rate on their own, which hopefully will mean that we have a really good day on 3rd downs.
Further, Colorado's opponents have also lost another touchdown, brought back due to penalty.
The biggest thing to remember is that Colorado and Baylor are two teams that are going through the growing pains of a new offense under new leadership. The scary part is that we don't know which one is going to start to grow up first. Is it going to be the Bear Raid offense under Bell? Is it going to be Hawkins Boise St. offense going under Jackson? I have a hard time betting against our defense, but in that altitude if the offense doesn't give us enough rest, we are going to be hurting towards the end of the game.
Sunday, October 01, 2006
With My Own Eyes
Was in Waco on Saturday to see the Bears win one. I've been thinking about it all weekend and all I can really say is that we were out "Baylored" on Saturday. Look, we did some things well and made plays when we absolutely had to but overall if you looked at my initial post, I was right on. My main points from the game are as follows:
- I said we needed a 14 point lead to win. K-State was forced to throw the ball with it's AWFUL pass offense and they couldn't make it work.
- We were thisclose to having to really get tested. The Wildcats fumbled twice inside the 10 which kept almost sure points off the board. These fumbles combined with the 3 interceptions are the self destrictive traits we need in opponets until we can prove we can stand toe to toe with teams and exchange blows.
- I agree with JudgeChamber in that Joe Pawelek is really coming along. He was everywhere.
- The defense did step up and stuff the run. That made Kansas State have to throw more which they showed they could not do with either quarterback.
I want to talk a little bit about Shawn Bell's performance. He was better but cannot play like he did if we are going to win 4 more this season. He did throw the deep ball more which led to a score. However, there are times when he decides he's going to throw it to someone no matter how many people are guarding him. On his interception, I saw that someone had seen the coaches getting on Gettis for not running the right route or something. Even if Gettis had run to the spot it came down, there were still two defensive backs there and the pass was so bad it would have made Quincy Carter cringe.
We will get tested in Colorado. We have yet to play a clean game (no turnovers, less penalties, close a game). As much as we see 0-5 by Colorado, you know that they look at us as very beatable and we are. We have yet to show any consistency on offense. We did not get one first down in the 4th quarter on Saturday. I don't think that will fly no matter who we play from here on out. The Buffs are no doubt seeing us as the cure to their problems. If we don't play better we will be their cure.
I don't mean to trash the team, they played tons better than last week (I think that loss is going to really bite us at the end of the season) but K State really beat themselves and had possibly the worst quarterback situation in the conference, by far. All I'm saying is that we've yet to play a complete game and that's what it's going to take to make this season semi-salvagable.
Let's get it together and beat CU. They are going to be up for the game since they see it as very winnable.
What a Game!
It wasn't a perfect game, which makes the result all the more pleasing in a way.
The defense played great. They played their best game of the year. And they didn't let up the whole game. They made some spectacular plays to keep KSU from scoring, they didn't bog down when the offense stalled or turned the ball over, they played with great intensity. I am so proud of their effort and the results.
The offense did a better job of moving the ball. Shawn Bell threw some deep passes, and even though he only really got a couple "deep" balls to connect, I think his biggest improvement was doing a better job of leading his receivers to allow them yards after catch. He still has a lot of improvement in that area, as far as consistently getting the ball in stride, but he was better than previous games.
And man, that deep ball to Shelton was beautiful.
Some concerns, though:
Some good things:
I like that Zeigler, Parks and Shelton were the main targets in the offense. I said a few weeks back that while it's nice to spread the ball around (8 players caught passes), we need to get the ball in the hands of our playmakers. Zeigler led the team with 8 catches and Parks had 7 catches. I like that Shelton got the long pass, but I would have liked to see him get a few more catches in the mid-range areas (12-18 yards).
On defense, I liked the fact that we have 6 players with 5 or more tackles. Joe Pawelek is really coming into his own at the linebacker spot and Maurice Linquist has been super-productive from his outside safety spot, especially in the last three games (27 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 FF, 1 INT), and has been the leading tackler in each of those games.
CJ Wilson was thrown on a few times, and while he didn't record an interception, he broke up two passes, and had two tackles. It seems that teams are going to be very selective about throwing on him, which I think is smart. He'll have to work harder to get his interceptions, but he's shutting down part of the field and opening up opportunities for other players like Arline and Crawford.
Teasley has to hold onto the ball. I say give Shelton a chance to return some punts, he's got the speed and the moves to be successful there. We need to do something to stop killing ourselves on the punt return team.
All in all, it was a good game, a good win and a good step into conference play. We need to go up to Colorado and get our third consecutive conference win, and get to .500 on the year and we'll be much closer to a bowl game than we were on Friday. This team can do it, and Colorado is as good a team as Kansas State for getting a healthier record. The defense will need to come up big again, and the offense will have to continue to take steps forward, but the optimism is seeping back in, and if we can go 1-1 or 2-0 in the next two road games, we will have a rocking house for the Homecoming game against Kansas, another very winnable game.
The defense played great. They played their best game of the year. And they didn't let up the whole game. They made some spectacular plays to keep KSU from scoring, they didn't bog down when the offense stalled or turned the ball over, they played with great intensity. I am so proud of their effort and the results.
The offense did a better job of moving the ball. Shawn Bell threw some deep passes, and even though he only really got a couple "deep" balls to connect, I think his biggest improvement was doing a better job of leading his receivers to allow them yards after catch. He still has a lot of improvement in that area, as far as consistently getting the ball in stride, but he was better than previous games.
And man, that deep ball to Shelton was beautiful.
Some concerns, though:
- We only had 13 first downs in the game.
- We averaged less than a yard rushing (18 yards on 19 carries)
- We averaged less than 6.2 yards per attempt (6.13/attempt)
- We allowed 13.5 yards per completion, including 17 yards per completion to Freeman
- Special Teams (missed FG, two lost punt returns)
Some good things:
- Averaged over 11 yards per completion
- Only allowed 12 first downs to KSU, including only 5 in the second half
- Allowed only 2.1 yards per attempt rushing, and 45 yards total
- Special Teams Punt Coverage (1.7 yards per return! GREAT!)
- Sepulveda - 9 punts, 52.1 yards per punt; 51.0 net punt average = Ray Guy Award
- Forced 5 turnovers
I like that Zeigler, Parks and Shelton were the main targets in the offense. I said a few weeks back that while it's nice to spread the ball around (8 players caught passes), we need to get the ball in the hands of our playmakers. Zeigler led the team with 8 catches and Parks had 7 catches. I like that Shelton got the long pass, but I would have liked to see him get a few more catches in the mid-range areas (12-18 yards).
On defense, I liked the fact that we have 6 players with 5 or more tackles. Joe Pawelek is really coming into his own at the linebacker spot and Maurice Linquist has been super-productive from his outside safety spot, especially in the last three games (27 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 FF, 1 INT), and has been the leading tackler in each of those games.
CJ Wilson was thrown on a few times, and while he didn't record an interception, he broke up two passes, and had two tackles. It seems that teams are going to be very selective about throwing on him, which I think is smart. He'll have to work harder to get his interceptions, but he's shutting down part of the field and opening up opportunities for other players like Arline and Crawford.
Teasley has to hold onto the ball. I say give Shelton a chance to return some punts, he's got the speed and the moves to be successful there. We need to do something to stop killing ourselves on the punt return team.
All in all, it was a good game, a good win and a good step into conference play. We need to go up to Colorado and get our third consecutive conference win, and get to .500 on the year and we'll be much closer to a bowl game than we were on Friday. This team can do it, and Colorado is as good a team as Kansas State for getting a healthier record. The defense will need to come up big again, and the offense will have to continue to take steps forward, but the optimism is seeping back in, and if we can go 1-1 or 2-0 in the next two road games, we will have a rocking house for the Homecoming game against Kansas, another very winnable game.
Friday, September 29, 2006
Prediction Time: Kansas State
What a tough week to make a call...
I don't think the team can play much worse than they did in the Army game, that's the good news. Further, I think the Army game might have done a good job motivating the defense to perform better against Kansas State, in addition to their propensity to play to their level of competition.
I think Bell will be a bit more motivated by the competition in practice, with Blake Szymanski receiving some snaps with the first team in practice. Those games in which he feels he has to prove himself, like Missouri in 2005 and A&M in 2004, he really comes up big. That might be the biggest boon to having Blake in the game a couple series a half, just to give Bell something to push him.
I think Kansas State is a lot like TCU. They have a good running game, they have a weak (in my opinion) quarterback and they have a tough defense. They are going to try to pound our defense over and over again. They are going to sit back and wait for us to tire so they can rip off 20+ yard runs in the fourth quarter. On defense, they are going to try to blast us and our finesse offense off the field. They have one very good defensive end and a solid linebacking corps. Their cornerbacks aren't anything to worry about, but that's not stopped any defenses from slowing our offense, yet.
It's amazing the similarities to TCU.
The good news is that we really, really ought to have beaten TCU. We held TCU to 2.9 yards per rush. We held them to 11 yards of offense in the first quarter and something like 129 yards in the first half.
We just have to hope that Freeman, their true freshman QB, doesn't come in and start throwing to running backs out of the backfield for 84-yard touchdowns.
This is a game that we can and should win. Our offense, as pathetic as it's been, has improved each game in scoring. Or at least our team has. 7 to 15 to 20 points. I say we take another step forward and manage to grab 24 points of scoring against KSU. The flip side is that we are due a step back offensively, like the defensive one we got against Army, in which case we could be looking at a 7-13 point effort.
Our defense got embarassed and I hope they don't come out with their Baylor faces already on.
Kansas State doesn't have the offensive firepower to blow us out, but we could be embarassed with a 20-7 effort against them.
Mind:
The offense takes a step back and the defense gives up at the half AGAIN (Why should I think anything else? They've done it every game.)
Baylor - 13
Kansas State - 23
Heart:
Bell is motivated by the pressure of the 2nd string QB, and manages at least one more scoring drive, and few three and outs. The defense stays to play for another quarter, not giving up the third quarter score as is their M.O.
Baylor - 24
Kansas State - 16
Just basically flipping the coin, I know.
I'm going with my heart on this one, because this is a must-win game, and I think the team has responded well to situations when they were embarassed. The key to that is that it didn't always necessarily mean a win: Texas Tech in 2005.
Final Prediction:
BAY - 24
KSU - 16
I don't think the team can play much worse than they did in the Army game, that's the good news. Further, I think the Army game might have done a good job motivating the defense to perform better against Kansas State, in addition to their propensity to play to their level of competition.
I think Bell will be a bit more motivated by the competition in practice, with Blake Szymanski receiving some snaps with the first team in practice. Those games in which he feels he has to prove himself, like Missouri in 2005 and A&M in 2004, he really comes up big. That might be the biggest boon to having Blake in the game a couple series a half, just to give Bell something to push him.
I think Kansas State is a lot like TCU. They have a good running game, they have a weak (in my opinion) quarterback and they have a tough defense. They are going to try to pound our defense over and over again. They are going to sit back and wait for us to tire so they can rip off 20+ yard runs in the fourth quarter. On defense, they are going to try to blast us and our finesse offense off the field. They have one very good defensive end and a solid linebacking corps. Their cornerbacks aren't anything to worry about, but that's not stopped any defenses from slowing our offense, yet.
It's amazing the similarities to TCU.
The good news is that we really, really ought to have beaten TCU. We held TCU to 2.9 yards per rush. We held them to 11 yards of offense in the first quarter and something like 129 yards in the first half.
We just have to hope that Freeman, their true freshman QB, doesn't come in and start throwing to running backs out of the backfield for 84-yard touchdowns.
This is a game that we can and should win. Our offense, as pathetic as it's been, has improved each game in scoring. Or at least our team has. 7 to 15 to 20 points. I say we take another step forward and manage to grab 24 points of scoring against KSU. The flip side is that we are due a step back offensively, like the defensive one we got against Army, in which case we could be looking at a 7-13 point effort.
Our defense got embarassed and I hope they don't come out with their Baylor faces already on.
Kansas State doesn't have the offensive firepower to blow us out, but we could be embarassed with a 20-7 effort against them.
Mind:
The offense takes a step back and the defense gives up at the half AGAIN (Why should I think anything else? They've done it every game.)
Baylor - 13
Kansas State - 23
Heart:
Bell is motivated by the pressure of the 2nd string QB, and manages at least one more scoring drive, and few three and outs. The defense stays to play for another quarter, not giving up the third quarter score as is their M.O.
Baylor - 24
Kansas State - 16
Just basically flipping the coin, I know.
I'm going with my heart on this one, because this is a must-win game, and I think the team has responded well to situations when they were embarassed. The key to that is that it didn't always necessarily mean a win: Texas Tech in 2005.
Final Prediction:
BAY - 24
KSU - 16
Shawn Bell
After reading through various posts and listening to Baylor fandom, I think we owe Shawn Bell an apology. And no this post isn't a joke.
I'm not a Shawn Bell apologist and have publicly declared that he shouldn't be the QB this year if we are going to run this spread offense. By the time, Bell figures this offense out, he will be gone. Let Szymanski figure it out now so maybe next year, he might be ready. Also, this offense doesn't give Shawn Bell the best chance of succeeding based on his skill set.
All that said, I still defend him somewhat. And here's why I like him. He came in unheralded. No one expected a thing out of him. But, he helped produce the best Baylor football season in 10 years. I think he is scrappy and tough. He's a decent game manager and has been loyal to this football team despite the coaching staff and its fans always ripping him. He has done everything asked of him. Play when called upon. Sit and support the team when benched. Come off the bench and try to bail the team out. Learn a new offense in his last year. And the list goes on.
We have thanked him by repeatedly begging for Terrance Parks last year and the coaches thanked him by benching him at certain times throughout that season. Now the coaches have thanked him by putting him in a situation which does not allow him to succeed.
One last thing: I'm not convinced that there is a lot of talent surrounding him.
So Shawn, thank you for your efforts and your dedication. Now one last thing: Keep being a team player and step aside in hopes that Szymanski learns the offense and can pick up where you left off last year. I know that is a terrible thing to ask for in your senior year - but I'm sure if you are asked by the coaching staff, you will take the high road, pick up the clipboard and support the new QB. And for that, I admire you.
I'm not a Shawn Bell apologist and have publicly declared that he shouldn't be the QB this year if we are going to run this spread offense. By the time, Bell figures this offense out, he will be gone. Let Szymanski figure it out now so maybe next year, he might be ready. Also, this offense doesn't give Shawn Bell the best chance of succeeding based on his skill set.
All that said, I still defend him somewhat. And here's why I like him. He came in unheralded. No one expected a thing out of him. But, he helped produce the best Baylor football season in 10 years. I think he is scrappy and tough. He's a decent game manager and has been loyal to this football team despite the coaching staff and its fans always ripping him. He has done everything asked of him. Play when called upon. Sit and support the team when benched. Come off the bench and try to bail the team out. Learn a new offense in his last year. And the list goes on.
We have thanked him by repeatedly begging for Terrance Parks last year and the coaches thanked him by benching him at certain times throughout that season. Now the coaches have thanked him by putting him in a situation which does not allow him to succeed.
One last thing: I'm not convinced that there is a lot of talent surrounding him.
So Shawn, thank you for your efforts and your dedication. Now one last thing: Keep being a team player and step aside in hopes that Szymanski learns the offense and can pick up where you left off last year. I know that is a terrible thing to ask for in your senior year - but I'm sure if you are asked by the coaching staff, you will take the high road, pick up the clipboard and support the new QB. And for that, I admire you.
Thursday, September 28, 2006
The Truth About Baylor Football
I want to extend a thanks to JudgeChamber for extending the invitation to discuss Baylor football on this blog. I'll try to keep it real and call it like I see it.
For my first post I want to discuss what I think will be the keys to the game. I think it's funny how some people talk about keys to the game. Usually, the first thing someone spouts off is "turnovers, penalties, line play." The next time someone tells you that, punch them in the face. These things are true in every game. It's not insight, it's stating the obvious. The team should show up to the stadium sometime before 6. See, I can do it too.
So without further delay Here are my keys to the game:
For my first post I want to discuss what I think will be the keys to the game. I think it's funny how some people talk about keys to the game. Usually, the first thing someone spouts off is "turnovers, penalties, line play." The next time someone tells you that, punch them in the face. These things are true in every game. It's not insight, it's stating the obvious. The team should show up to the stadium sometime before 6. See, I can do it too.
So without further delay Here are my keys to the game:
- Quarterback (yikes!) must have a GREAT game. Notice I didn’t put he who will no longer be named. This sounds like a no-brainer but the stat line needs to read 300+ , 2+ touchdowns if we are going to have a chance. 200-225 and 1 touchdown on 45 attempts will mean a loss. Count on it. Our defense/special teams will probably give up 13-17 so we need points. I don’t see K-State blitzing all that much. They saw that Army could get to the quarterback with the front 4 and surely they saw that our biggest plays have been off screen type plays. Why would they risk bringing linebackers when they can disrupt without them? Also for the love of all that is holy please throw deep once a quarter. People whine about our running game but when the safeties are lining up 8 yards off the ball you just can’t. Making them line up 12 yards off the ball would make all the difference in the world.
- Terrance Parks in the red zone. I mentioned this before to several people, in our offense when we have 4-5 receivers out there it is like stealing to have him on the inside. The defense can only double team one person (maybe) and it won’t be him. He will be lined up on a linebacker in which case he needs to be running a 6-7 yard out and use his speed to run away from them or if a d-back does cover him he needs to live between the hashes where the defender won’t be able to even see the ball until its too late.
- On defense, it’s all about the front 7. I don’t even think the secondary will be a factor in this game. If the K-State coaches have an ounce of brain cells between all of them, they will run, run, and run some more on us. Their QB is about as scary as ours, why even give him enough rope to hang himself?
- We MUST get a two touchdown lead somehow. This puts K-State in “catch up” mode and plays to their weakness and our supposed strength.
I want to expand on this last point. From what I have seen thus far in this season, the only way we win a conference game is for a game to unfold like the OK-State game last year where our opponent self destructs right in front of us. Our team doesn't have the "onions" to actually trade blows with another team. At the first sign of an opponent getting momentum, our guys have been making the "Baylor face" and from there it's all over. Let's hope a spine transplant happened during the week. You know Ron Prince was telling his team all week: "Just stay in the game, hold onto the ball. Baylor is a ticking time bomb that will go off on itself if you just let it. If we are two scores behind or better, they will find a way to give it to us."
For an ender, to the couple who sits in front of me: Learn the rules of the game, just because the other team ran for more than 5 yards does not necessarily mean there was holding. You're annoying as hell when you scream for penalties that even Pac-10 officials could get right not calling.
Welcome The Dixie Fitz
Baylor Sports Unlimited adds yet another writer, The Dixie Fitz.
TDF lands somewhere in between myself and Cynical_Jeff in his views on Baylor sports.
TDF lands somewhere in between myself and Cynical_Jeff in his views on Baylor sports.
Colorado State Preview
Getting back to a little bit of Basketball, here's the preview of the next opponent on our schedule, Colorado State. We will face CSU in the Pre-season NIT or Tip-Off Classic or whatever it's being called these days. We'll have to beat them to get to Gonzaga in the second round.
Top 3 Returning Scorers:
Jason Smith, F - 16.2ppg
Cory Lewis, G - 10.1ppg
Stuart Creason, C - 7.9ppg
Total Scoring Returning - 41.5ppg (lost 32.5 ppg)
Top 3 Returning Rebounders
Jason Smith, F - 7.3rpg
Stuart Creason, C - 3.8rpg
Cory Lewis, G - 3.6rpg
Total Rebounding Returning - 18.1 rpg (lost 10.6 rpg)
Top 3 Returnings Assists
Cory Lewis, G - 136 (4.53/game)
Jason Smith, F - 70 (2.25/game)
Stuart Creason - 28 (1.04/game)
Total Assists Returning - 276 (8.9/game)
Colorado State lost some very important pieces to their team this year, and it will be interesting to see how they put everything together.
They obviously have a very strong core for their team, as the same three players, across three different positions, are the top 3 leading scorers, rebounders and assist(ers?).
Cory Lewis is a 6' guard who led all MWC guards with 4.53 assists per game, is a former JUCO guard who was playing in his first season at the MWC level.
Jason Smith is CSUs best player and standing 7' tall, he's more of a center than the forward position he's listed at. He'll be a junior coming into this year, but was the MWC Freshman of the Year and an All-MWC Honorable Mention his freshman year as well. He was first-team all MWC last year, averaging 16.2 ppg (on 51.7% shooting), 7.3 rebounds per game, and 2.14 blocks per game.
Stuart Creason is the teams center, and he also stands 7' tall. He only started one game last year, but logged 22 minutes per game in the 27 games he played in. He missed 4 games due to injury. Although not much of a scoring threat (7.9ppg), he does have a presence on the defensive end with 1.41 blocks per game. I'd look for him to have a bigger role on the team this coming year.
Colorado State will have a youth movement similar to Baylors, with 8 of their 15 players on roster being sophomores or freshmen.
Only two of their incoming true freshmen were rated by Rivals, one being a 3* and the other a 2*. While we are aware that the star ratings aren't the end all, be all, for measuring freshmen contributions, it's a good way to start, especially when talking basketball. The 3* player is Jarrel Smith, a 6'7" 185lb small forward, who was ranked #14 in California, but did not make the national list. He was also offered by UC-Santa Barbara and San Diego State, and recruited by OU, Georgia Tech and Illinois.
The 2* player was Jarrel's brother, Jimmy. A 6'5" 185lb guard, Jimmy wasn't as highly recruited as Jarrell, but did get interest from OU, Maryland and Illinois, but didn't receive any offers.
It will be interesting to see how the youth affects the play of the veteran players, especially if the young guards are able to effectively distribute the ball when Lewis is not on the court, or when he is being pressured by Jerrells. If Creason and Smith can't get the ball in their hands, it's going to be difficult for CSU to really get its game going.
Top 3 Returning Scorers:
Jason Smith, F - 16.2ppg
Cory Lewis, G - 10.1ppg
Stuart Creason, C - 7.9ppg
Total Scoring Returning - 41.5ppg (lost 32.5 ppg)
Top 3 Returning Rebounders
Jason Smith, F - 7.3rpg
Stuart Creason, C - 3.8rpg
Cory Lewis, G - 3.6rpg
Total Rebounding Returning - 18.1 rpg (lost 10.6 rpg)
Top 3 Returnings Assists
Cory Lewis, G - 136 (4.53/game)
Jason Smith, F - 70 (2.25/game)
Stuart Creason - 28 (1.04/game)
Total Assists Returning - 276 (8.9/game)
Colorado State lost some very important pieces to their team this year, and it will be interesting to see how they put everything together.
They obviously have a very strong core for their team, as the same three players, across three different positions, are the top 3 leading scorers, rebounders and assist(ers?).
Cory Lewis is a 6' guard who led all MWC guards with 4.53 assists per game, is a former JUCO guard who was playing in his first season at the MWC level.
Jason Smith is CSUs best player and standing 7' tall, he's more of a center than the forward position he's listed at. He'll be a junior coming into this year, but was the MWC Freshman of the Year and an All-MWC Honorable Mention his freshman year as well. He was first-team all MWC last year, averaging 16.2 ppg (on 51.7% shooting), 7.3 rebounds per game, and 2.14 blocks per game.
Stuart Creason is the teams center, and he also stands 7' tall. He only started one game last year, but logged 22 minutes per game in the 27 games he played in. He missed 4 games due to injury. Although not much of a scoring threat (7.9ppg), he does have a presence on the defensive end with 1.41 blocks per game. I'd look for him to have a bigger role on the team this coming year.
Colorado State will have a youth movement similar to Baylors, with 8 of their 15 players on roster being sophomores or freshmen.
Only two of their incoming true freshmen were rated by Rivals, one being a 3* and the other a 2*. While we are aware that the star ratings aren't the end all, be all, for measuring freshmen contributions, it's a good way to start, especially when talking basketball. The 3* player is Jarrel Smith, a 6'7" 185lb small forward, who was ranked #14 in California, but did not make the national list. He was also offered by UC-Santa Barbara and San Diego State, and recruited by OU, Georgia Tech and Illinois.
The 2* player was Jarrel's brother, Jimmy. A 6'5" 185lb guard, Jimmy wasn't as highly recruited as Jarrell, but did get interest from OU, Maryland and Illinois, but didn't receive any offers.
It will be interesting to see how the youth affects the play of the veteran players, especially if the young guards are able to effectively distribute the ball when Lewis is not on the court, or when he is being pressured by Jerrells. If Creason and Smith can't get the ball in their hands, it's going to be difficult for CSU to really get its game going.
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